The Power of Geography

1. Geography shapes nations' destinies and global power dynamics

Geography is a key factor shaping what humanity can and cannot do.

Physical constraints: Mountains, rivers, seas, and deserts profoundly influence a nation's development, defense capabilities, and international relations. These geographical features determine access to resources, trade routes, and strategic chokepoints.

Historical impact: Throughout history, geography has played a crucial role in shaping empires, conflicts, and alliances. For example:

• The Himalayas separate India and China, limiting direct conflict
• Russia's vast steppes have historically provided a buffer against invasion
• The English Channel has protected Britain from continental European threats

Modern relevance: Even in our globalized world, geography continues to shape geopolitics:

• China's Belt and Road Initiative aims to overcome geographical constraints
• Control of maritime chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz remains critical
• Climate change is altering the geopolitical landscape, opening new Arctic routes

2. Water scarcity and climate change fuel conflicts in the Sahel

What happens in the Sahel doesn't stay in the Sahel.

Regional instability: The Sahel, a vast region stretching across northern Africa, faces multiple crises driven by water scarcity, climate change, and weak governance. These factors fuel conflicts, extremism, and mass migration.

Global implications: The instability in the Sahel has far-reaching consequences:

• Increased migration pressures on Europe
• Expansion of terrorist groups like Al-Qaeda and ISIS
• Competition among global powers for influence and resources

International response: Various nations and organizations are attempting to address the region's challenges:

• France leads military operations against extremist groups
• The G5 Sahel countries cooperate on security and development
• China and Russia seek economic and strategic opportunities

3. Ethiopia's water resources give it regional leverage and global attention

Ethiopia is positioning itself to become the indispensable US ally in the region.

Water tower of Africa: Ethiopia's abundant water resources, particularly its control over the Blue Nile, give it significant leverage over downstream countries like Egypt and Sudan.

Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD): This massive hydroelectric project exemplifies Ethiopia's ambitions and regional tensions:

• Potential to transform Ethiopia's economy and energy sector
• Source of conflict with Egypt, which fears reduced water flow
• Attracts global attention and mediation efforts

Geopolitical implications:

• Ethiopia emerges as a key regional power
• Increased competition among global powers for influence
• Potential for water-related conflicts in the Horn of Africa

4. Spain grapples with regional identities rooted in its diverse geography

Nature and man are opposed in Spain.

Geographic diversity: Spain's varied landscape of mountains, plains, and coastlines has historically hindered national unity and fostered strong regional identities.

Historical context: The country's geography has shaped its development:

• Difficult internal communications promoted regional autonomy
• Coastal regions developed distinct maritime cultures
• Mountainous regions preserved unique languages and traditions

Modern challenges:

• Catalonia's push for independence
• Basque separatist movements
• Balancing regional autonomy with national cohesion
• Addressing economic disparities between regions

5. Turkey's strategic location fuels its neo-Ottoman ambitions

Turkey holds the keys to one of the gates through which migrants flow to Europe, and being a gatekeeper gives it power.

Geopolitical crossroads: Turkey's position straddling Europe and Asia, controlling access to the Black Sea, gives it significant strategic importance.

Neo-Ottoman foreign policy: Under President Erdogan, Turkey has pursued an increasingly assertive regional role:

• Intervention in Syria and Libya
• Tensions with Greece over maritime boundaries
• Balancing act between NATO membership and relations with Russia

Domestic challenges:

• Kurdish separatist movements
• Balancing secularism and political Islam
• Economic development of Anatolia

6. Greece's mountainous terrain and islands shape its geopolitical challenges

The mountains to the north of the Greek mainland make trade in that direction arduous, but they are also a barrier to land-based threats.

Defensive geography: Greece's mountainous terrain has historically provided protection against land invasions but also hindered internal communication and economic development.

Maritime focus: With thousands of islands and an extensive coastline, Greece has always been oriented towards the sea:

• Strategic importance in controlling Aegean Sea
• Tensions with Turkey over maritime boundaries
• Challenges in managing migration flows

Modern implications:

• Balancing EU membership with national interests
• Leveraging its position for energy and trade routes
• Managing economic challenges within geographical constraints

7. The UK navigates post-Brexit uncertainties while leveraging its maritime heritage

Britain's instinct post-2016 has been to look to the United States.

Island nation legacy: The UK's geography as an island off the coast of Europe has shaped its history, culture, and global outlook.

Post-Brexit challenges:

• Redefining relationships with EU and global partners
• Balancing economic ties with Europe and new trade agreements
• Potential Scottish independence threatening territorial integrity

Global Britain strategy:

• Leveraging historical ties with Commonwealth nations
• Seeking closer alignment with the US
• Expanding naval presence in Indo-Pacific region

8. Saudi Arabia races to diversify its economy beyond oil dependency

Saudi Arabia takes a similar hardheaded, pragmatic approach to pan-Arab nationalism.

Geographic constraints: Saudi Arabia's vast desert landscape and lack of rivers have historically limited development and population centers.

Oil-based economy: The discovery of vast oil reserves transformed Saudi Arabia but created a dependency on fossil fuel exports.

Vision 2030: The kingdom's ambitious plan to diversify its economy faces several challenges:

• Developing non-oil industries and tourism
• Investing in renewable energy, particularly solar power
• Balancing modernization with conservative social norms
• Managing regional tensions, particularly with Iran

9. Iran's fortress-like geography influences its defiant stance and regional ambitions

Iran is defined by two geographic features: its mountains, which form a ring of crust on most of its borders, and the mostly flat salt deserts of the interior.

Defensive terrain: Iran's mountainous borders and inhospitable interior have historically protected it from invasion and fostered a sense of isolation.

Strategic location: Control over the Strait of Hormuz gives Iran leverage over global oil markets and regional security.

Modern geopolitics:

• Nuclear program and tensions with the West
• Support for proxy forces across the Middle East
• Balancing act between isolation and regional influence

10. Australia balances its alliance with the US and economic ties with China

Australia was in the middle of nowhere, became a very big somewhere, and is now center stage.

Geographic isolation: Australia's vast distances from other continents have shaped its development and strategic outlook.

Strategic importance: Australia's position in the Indo-Pacific region gives it increasing geopolitical significance:

• Key ally for the US in containing China's influence
• Major supplier of resources to Asian economies
• Potential mediator between US and China

Balancing act:

• Maintaining strong security ties with the US
• Managing economic dependence on China
• Addressing climate change and environmental challenges

11. Space exploration enters a new era of competition and potential conflict

The "space race" now looks to be accelerating, bringing with it the temptation to go it alone, or at least with allies, to ensure "we" beat "them."

New frontier: As technology advances, space is becoming a new arena for geopolitical competition and potential conflict.

Key areas of competition:

• Control of low Earth orbit and satellite networks
• Exploitation of lunar and asteroid resources
• Development of space-based weapons systems

International cooperation vs. competition:

• Artemis Accords vs. China-Russia lunar base plans
• Commercial space race led by companies like SpaceX
• Need for updated international space law and governance

Last updated: January 22, 2025