Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

1. The Red State-Blue State Paradox: Rich States, Republican Voters

Rich states vote for the Democrats, but rich people vote Republican.

Contradictory Voting Patterns. The book highlights a paradox in American politics: while richer states tend to vote for Democratic candidates, wealthier individuals within those states often favor Republicans. This challenges conventional wisdom and media portrayals of wealthy, liberal elites dominating the Democratic party.

Examples of the Paradox. In the 2000 and 2004 elections, states like Massachusetts and California, with higher average incomes, voted for Democratic candidates. However, exit polls consistently show that individuals with higher incomes are more likely to vote Republican, regardless of the state they reside in.

Challenging Stereotypes. This paradox undermines simplistic narratives of "latte-sipping" Democrats and "NASCAR-loving" Republicans. It suggests that factors beyond income, such as cultural values and social issues, play a significant role in shaping voting behavior.

2. Income's Varying Influence: Poor States vs. Rich States

Income varies much less among states than within states—the average income in the richest state is only about twice that of the poorest...

Income Matters More in Poor States. The influence of income on voting behavior is not uniform across the United States. In poorer states, such as Mississippi, there is a stronger correlation between income and Republican voting. Wealthier individuals in these states are significantly more likely to vote Republican than their lower-income counterparts.

Income's Diminished Role in Rich States. In contrast, in wealthier states like Connecticut, the correlation between income and Republican voting is weaker. This suggests that other factors, such as social and cultural values, may play a more prominent role in shaping voting decisions in these states.

Contextual Factors. The book argues that the political differences among states are driven more by cultural issues, while within states, the traditional rich-poor divide remains a significant factor. This highlights the importance of considering both individual and contextual factors when analyzing voting behavior.

3. Journalistic Misconceptions: The Talking Heads' Confusion

The perception of polarization is itself a part of polarization, and views about whom the candidates represent can affect how political decisions are reported.

Media's Role in Perpetuating Stereotypes. The book critiques the media's tendency to perpetuate inaccurate stereotypes about voters, such as the image of wealthy, yuppie Democrats and lower-income, middle-American Republicans. These stereotypes, while resonating on some level, are contradicted by aggregate data.

Ecological Fallacy. The authors point out that journalists often commit the "ecological fallacy" by inferring individual behavior from aggregate data. For example, observing that richer states vote Democratic does not necessarily mean that richer voters within those states are also voting Democratic.

Availability Bias. The book suggests that journalists, who are often based in wealthier, more liberal areas, may be subject to an "availability bias," leading them to overestimate the prevalence of liberal views among the wealthy. This can result in skewed reporting and a misunderstanding of the complex dynamics shaping American politics.

4. Historical Trends: The Shifting Political Landscape

What’s new is polarization—the ideological nature of politics.

Evolving Geographic Bases. The geographic bases of the two major parties have shifted dramatically over time. New England and the West Coast, once Republican strongholds, have become increasingly Democratic, while the South has transitioned from a Democratic to a Republican stronghold.

Income's Enduring Influence. Despite these shifts, income has remained a consistent predictor of Republican voting at the individual level. Wealthier voters have generally favored Republican candidates, while lower-income voters have leaned towards the Democrats.

The Rise of Polarization. The book argues that the increasing polarization of American politics, particularly since the 1990s, has exacerbated the red state-blue state divide. This polarization has driven rich conservative voters in poor states toward the Republicans and rich liberals in rich states toward the Democrats.

5. Inequality's Limited Role: Within vs. Between States

This increasing inequality has occurred within, not among, states.

Rising Income Disparities. Income inequality has increased dramatically in the United States since the 1970s, with the richest Americans experiencing exceptional income growth. This trend has fueled discussions about the economic divisions shaping American politics.

Inequality's Uneven Impact. While income inequality has increased within states, the income gap between rich and poor states has actually declined over much of the past century. This suggests that factors beyond income inequality, such as cultural values and social issues, play a significant role in shaping the red state-blue state divide.

Tax Policies and Redistribution. The book notes that tax cuts and deregulation, championed by Republicans, have led to increased inequality in richer states, while poverty-relief programs, often supported by Democrats, have decreased inequality in poorer states. This highlights the complex interplay between economic policies and voting patterns.

6. Religion's Influence: The Religious Right and Secular Left

Churchgoing predicts vote choice much more for the rich than the poor, but this pattern has only become prominent since 1990...

Religion's Enduring Presence. Religion has been a central force in American culture and politics since the nation's founding. However, the link between religion and the Republican party is a relatively recent phenomenon.

The Rise of the Religious Right. The mobilization of the religious right in the late 20th century has significantly shaped American politics. Conservative Christians have increasingly aligned themselves with the Republican party, driven by issues such as abortion, gay rights, and traditional family values.

Secularization and Polarization. As the country has become more secular and pluralistic, the political cohesion of religious voters has increased. This has led to a growing divide between religious conservatives and secular liberals, further exacerbating the red state-blue state divide.

7. International Perspective: Mexico and Beyond

The new map depicts an industrialized north, where business ties to the United States have played an enormous role in the rise of the right-leaning, conservative party, and a more agricultural south that is a hotbed of leftist discontent and anti-globalization sentiment.

Mexico's Regional Divide. The book broadens its scope by examining the political landscape of Mexico, which exhibits a similar regional divide between richer, more industrialized northern states and poorer, more agricultural southern states. However, unlike in the United States, the north in Mexico tends to be more politically conservative.

Global Patterns of Income and Voting. The book also analyzes voting patterns in a range of European, Asian, and Latin American countries, finding that the relationship between income and vote choice varies significantly depending on national politics and cultural contexts.

The United States in Context. While the United States exhibits a strong correlation between income and conservative voting, this pattern is not universal. In some countries, conservative parties actually perform better among lower-income voters, highlighting the unique factors shaping American politics.

8. Polarized Parties: The Widening Ideological Divide

Liberal Democrats face off against conservative Republicans in Congress with little middle ground, and voters within each party are also more likely to agree with each other on issues ranging from taxes to gay rights to foreign policy.

Congressional Polarization. The book highlights the increasing ideological polarization of the Democratic and Republican parties in Congress. This polarization has resulted in less common ground and more partisan gridlock.

Voter Alignment. Voters have increasingly aligned themselves with the ideological positions of their chosen party. This has led to a greater consistency in issue attitudes among partisans, but also to a widening gap between Democrats and Republicans.

The Limits of Polarization. Despite the increasing polarization of American politics, the book notes that most voters remain moderate in their views. This suggests that the red state-blue state divide is not as absolute as it may appear, and that there is still room for compromise and consensus.

9. Building Coalitions: The Push and Pull of Political Strategy

The red–blue map represents real divisions among Americans, especially at the high end of income, but not the simple contrast of rich Democrats and poor Republicans as sometimes imagined by pundits.

The Quest for a Majority. Both the Democratic and Republican parties are constantly striving to build a majority coalition. This involves appealing to swing voters in swing states while also maintaining the loyalty of their core supporters.

The Temptation of Economic Conservatism. The book explores why Republicans have been able to win elections with economically conservative policies that may seem unpopular with the majority of voters. It suggests that factors such as cultural values, social issues, and effective messaging have played a key role in shaping voter preferences.

The Limits of Economic Populism. The book also questions whether the Democrats would gain votes by shifting to the left on economic policy. It suggests that such a move could alienate moderate voters and undermine the party's appeal in key swing states.

10. Putting It All Together: A Nuanced Understanding

The red–blue map represents real divisions among Americans, especially at the high end of income, but not the simple contrast of rich Democrats and poor Republicans as sometimes imagined by pundits.

Beyond Simple Dichotomies. The book emphasizes the need to move beyond simplistic dichotomies and stereotypes when analyzing American politics. The red state-blue state divide is a complex phenomenon shaped by a variety of factors, including income, religion, culture, and geography.

The Importance of Context. The book highlights the importance of considering both individual and contextual factors when analyzing voting behavior. The influence of income, religion, and other variables can vary significantly depending on the state or region in question.

A Call for Nuance. The book concludes with a call for a more nuanced understanding of American politics. By recognizing the complexities and contradictions shaping voter behavior, we can move beyond simplistic narratives and engage in more productive conversations about the challenges facing the nation.

Last updated: March 15, 2025