Success and Luck

1. Luck plays a crucial role in success, alongside talent and effort

"If you want to be smart and highly energetic, the most important single step you could take is to choose the right parents."

Talent and effort are essential, but luck often determines who rises to the top. Many highly talented and hardworking individuals never achieve significant success due to circumstances beyond their control. Factors such as:

• Genetic endowment
• Family background
• Educational opportunities
• Chance encounters and timing

all play crucial roles in shaping one's path to success. For example, Bill Gates' early access to computer programming facilities at his high school gave him a significant advantage in the tech industry.

Success is multifaceted, and while individuals can control their effort and develop their talents, they cannot control the lucky breaks that often make the difference between moderate and extraordinary success. Recognizing this can lead to a more nuanced understanding of achievement and a greater appreciation for the opportunities we receive.

2. Winner-take-all markets amplify the importance of chance events

"When success depends on relative position, as it almost always does in competitive struggles, wasteful 'positional arms races' often result."

Technology and globalization have created more winner-take-all markets, where small differences in performance can lead to enormous differences in rewards. These markets:

• Allow top performers to reach larger audiences
• Concentrate rewards among a small number of winners
• Make luck even more important in determining outcomes

For example, in the music industry, recording technology allows the best performers to capture most of the market, leaving little room for those who are nearly as talented but less fortunate.

The Matthew Effect, where early advantages compound over time, further amplifies the role of luck. Initial success, often influenced by chance events, can lead to more opportunities, resources, and recognition, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of success. This effect is evident in various fields, from academia to business, where early achievements can significantly shape long-term career trajectories.

3. False beliefs about luck and talent persist due to psychological biases

"Never underestimate the willingness of a man to believe flattering things about himself."

Cognitive biases lead people to underestimate luck's role in success and overestimate their own abilities. These biases include:

• Self-serving bias: attributing success to personal factors and failure to external factors
• Hindsight bias: believing events were more predictable than they actually were
• Availability heuristic: relying more heavily on easily recalled information

Adaptive purposes may explain the persistence of these beliefs. Downplaying luck's importance can:

• Motivate individuals to work harder and persist in the face of challenges
• Boost confidence and self-esteem
• Provide a sense of control over one's life and future

However, these false beliefs can also lead to negative consequences, such as reduced empathy for those less fortunate and resistance to policies that support equal opportunities.

4. Underestimating luck's role leads to reduced support for public investments

"Because chance events figure prominently along virtually every career trajectory, people who claim complete responsibility for their own success are almost surely claiming more credit than they actually deserve."

Reduced public investment is a consequence of successful individuals believing their achievements are solely due to their own efforts. This belief leads to:

• Resistance to higher taxes
• Less support for social programs and infrastructure
• Growing inequality and reduced social mobility

For example, declining support for public education has resulted in rising tuition costs and increased student debt, making it harder for individuals from low-income backgrounds to access higher education and improve their economic prospects.

The burden of false beliefs extends beyond individual attitudes to shape public policy. When society fails to recognize the role of luck and shared infrastructure in success, it becomes more difficult to maintain and improve the conditions that create opportunities for future generations. This creates a self-reinforcing cycle where reduced investment leads to fewer opportunities, further cementing existing inequalities.

5. A progressive consumption tax could generate resources for vital public goods

"Without demanding painful sacrifices from anyone, this relatively simple policy change would enable us to put trillions of dollars a year to work rebuilding the institutions and infrastructure that reliably translate talent and effort into success."

Tax reform proposal: Replace the current income tax with a progressive consumption tax. This would:

• Encourage savings and investment
• Discourage wasteful "positional" spending
• Generate revenue for public investments

The tax would be calculated by subtracting annual savings from income, with a large standard deduction. Higher rates would apply to higher levels of consumption, incentivizing the wealthy to save more and spend less on luxury goods.

Benefits of the proposal:

• Reduced waste from "expenditure cascades" (keeping up with the Joneses)
• Increased investment in infrastructure, education, and other public goods
• Improved economic growth through higher savings rates
• More equitable distribution of resources without reducing incentives for success

Implementation challenges include political resistance and the need for a gradual transition, but the potential benefits make it a compelling option for addressing inequality and underinvestment in public goods.

6. Acknowledging luck's importance can lead to greater happiness and generosity

"People who acknowledge luck's role in their success are much more likely than others to support the kinds of public investments that created and maintained the environments that made their own success possible."

Gratitude and humility are positive outcomes of recognizing luck's role in success. Research shows that individuals who acknowledge the external factors contributing to their achievements tend to:

• Experience greater happiness and life satisfaction
• Exhibit more prosocial behavior and generosity
• Support policies that benefit the broader community

For example, experiments have demonstrated that inducing feelings of gratitude leads to increased willingness to help others and contribute to public goods.

Character development is another benefit of embracing a more balanced view of success. Acknowledging luck's importance can:

• Foster empathy and understanding for those less fortunate
• Encourage a more collaborative and supportive approach to work and relationships
• Lead to more realistic self-assessments and continuous self-improvement

By cultivating these qualities, individuals not only become more attractive teammates and leaders but also contribute to a more cohesive and supportive society.

7. Gradual policy changes can create a better society without painful sacrifices

"Be encouraged, as I have been, that public opinion on any subject emerges from a complex dynamic process in which what people deem reasonable to believe depends in part on what their conversation partners believe."

Incremental change is key to implementing policies that address inequality and underinvestment in public goods. By gradually introducing reforms like the progressive consumption tax, society can:

• Allow time for adjustment and adaptation
• Build support through demonstrated benefits
• Minimize disruption to the economy

Public discourse plays a crucial role in shaping opinions and policy. Engaging in conversations about:

• The role of luck in success
• The importance of public investments
• The benefits of a more equitable society

can help shift perceptions and build support for positive changes.

Long-term benefits of these changes include:

• Improved infrastructure and public services
• Greater economic mobility and opportunity
• A more sustainable and prosperous society for all

By recognizing the role of luck and the importance of collective action, we can work towards a future that better balances individual achievement with social responsibility.

Last updated: April 25, 2025