Under the Influence

1. Social influence shapes behavior more than we realize

As social psychologists like to say, "It's the situation, not the person."

Context is king. Our choices and actions are heavily influenced by our social environments, often in ways we don't consciously recognize. This fundamental attribution error leads us to underestimate the power of situational factors and overestimate the role of individual personality traits.

Experiments like Solomon Asch's conformity studies and Stanley Milgram's obedience experiments dramatically demonstrate how social pressure can lead people to ignore clear evidence or violate their own moral principles. Even small changes in social context can produce large shifts in behavior:

• Peer behavior is the strongest predictor of smoking, drinking, and other health behaviors
• Default options have outsized effects on decisions like organ donation and retirement savings
• Framing choices differently (e.g. opt-in vs. opt-out) can dramatically change outcomes
• Social proof messages are more effective than environmental or economic appeals

Understanding these influences allows us to design more effective policies and "nudges" to encourage positive behaviors. Rather than relying solely on information or incentives, we can harness the power of social norms and behavioral contagion.

2. Behavioral contagion amplifies smoking's harmful effects

By far the greatest injury caused by someone's decision to become a smoker is the harm caused by making others more likely to smoke as well.

Smoking spreads socially. While secondhand smoke is often cited as the main justification for anti-smoking policies, the harm caused by behavioral contagion is far greater. When someone becomes a smoker, it increases the likelihood that their friends and peers will smoke as well, creating a cascade effect.

Research shows the powerful influence of peer smoking:

• A 10% increase in peer smoking rates raises an individual's probability of smoking by 3-5%
• For every smoker who quits, one additional person in their social network also quits or never starts
• Teenage smoking rates are highly correlated with the smoking rates of their closest friends

This amplification effect means that policies to discourage smoking prevent far more harm than is typically recognized. By reducing the overall smoking rate, we create social environments that make it easier for individuals to resist taking up the habit or to quit successfully.

3. The sexual revolution was driven by social forces, not just technology

Context shapes our judgments about mundane physical quantities, such as distance.

Social norms evolve. While the birth control pill is often credited as the primary driver of the sexual revolution, social forces played an equally if not more important role. Changing attitudes and peer influences shaped sexual behavior as much as technological innovations.

Key social factors in the sexual revolution included:

• Shifting gender ratios in the dating pool due to post-war demographics
• Growing economic independence of women
• Changing media portrayals of sexuality
• Peer influences amplifying new sexual norms

The power of these social forces is evident in how rapidly attitudes can shift. For instance, support for same-sex marriage went from a small minority to a clear majority in just a few decades. This demonstrates how behavioral contagion can produce tipping points in social attitudes, leading to rapid and sweeping changes in behavior and policy.

4. Trust and honesty can emerge even in competitive environments

Because certain profitable exchanges are possible only when people can trust one another, trustworthiness becomes, in effect, a valuable economic asset.

Honesty pays. Contrary to the view that self-interest always trumps moral behavior in competitive settings, genuine trustworthiness can be an adaptive trait. People who can credibly signal their honesty gain access to mutually beneficial exchanges that would otherwise be too risky.

This insight helps explain several puzzling behaviors:

• Why people tip in restaurants they'll never visit again
• Why many behave honestly even when detection of cheating is impossible
• How cooperation can emerge in competitive business environments

The key is that humans have evolved sophisticated abilities to detect genuine emotional commitments in others. This allows truly trustworthy individuals to reap the rewards of cooperation even in one-shot interactions. However, this system is vulnerable to behavioral contagion effects - as cheating becomes more common, the incentives for honesty decline.

5. Peer influences significantly impact obesity and alcohol consumption

Context shapes our choices to a far greater extent than many people consciously realize.

Health habits spread. Obesity and excessive drinking, like smoking, are strongly influenced by social networks and peer behavior. Understanding these contagion effects is crucial for developing effective public health interventions.

Research demonstrates powerful peer effects:

• Having an obese friend increases one's own chance of becoming obese by 57%
• A 1% increase in peer drinking raises individual drinking by 0.11-0.18 drinks per day
• Moving to an area with higher obesity rates increases one's own risk of becoming obese

These findings suggest that successful health interventions should target influential individuals or groups to catalyze positive behavioral cascades. They also highlight how individual health choices can have far-reaching effects on others, providing an additional rationale for policies that discourage unhealthy behaviors.

6. Positional arms races waste trillions in consumer spending

Caring more about relative consumption in some domains than in others distorts people's spending decisions.

Keeping up is costly. Much consumer spending is driven by concerns about relative status rather than absolute well-being. This leads to "positional arms races" where people spend ever-increasing amounts on goods like housing, cars, and luxury items without gaining any net benefit.

Examples of wasteful positional spending:

• Larger homes that don't increase happiness but require more upkeep
• Escalating wedding costs that don't improve marital satisfaction
• Luxury goods that confer status only until others acquire similar items

The author estimates that these positional arms races waste over $2 trillion annually in the U.S. alone. This represents a massive misallocation of resources that could instead be directed towards public goods, savings, or non-positional consumption that genuinely improves well-being.

7. Climate change requires urgent action guided by behavioral insights

Behavioral contagion has also been shown to have influenced steep rates of growth in the incidence of obesity, both in the United States and in other parts of the world.

Time is running out. The climate crisis poses an existential threat that demands immediate, large-scale action. Understanding behavioral contagion is crucial for developing effective climate policies and spurring the necessary social and technological changes.

Key behavioral insights for climate action:

• Social proof and peer effects strongly influence adoption of green technologies
• Consumption patterns like SUV purchases are driven by contagious social norms
• Framing climate action in terms of present vs. past conditions is more effective for conservatives
• Policies should target influential individuals and groups to catalyze positive cascades

Harnessing these insights can help overcome political resistance and accelerate the transition to a sustainable economy. By aligning individual incentives with collective needs, we can unleash powerful social forces to drive rapid decarbonization.

8. Pigouvian taxes are effective but politically challenging to implement

Pigouvian taxes kill two birds with one stone. They not only generate revenue to pay for essential government services, but they also discourage behaviors whose costs outweigh their benefits.

Tax what harms. Taxes on activities that cause negative externalities, known as Pigouvian taxes, are highly effective at aligning individual incentives with social welfare. They reduce harmful behaviors while raising revenue that can offset other, more distortionary taxes.

Advantages of Pigouvian taxes:

• More efficient than command-and-control regulation
• Allow flexibility for those who value the activity most
• Generate revenue to fund public goods or reduce other taxes
• Can be adjusted to achieve desired levels of behavior change

Despite their effectiveness, Pigouvian taxes often face strong political opposition. Overcoming this resistance requires careful policy design, clear communication of benefits, and strategies to address distributional concerns.

9. The "mother of all cognitive illusions" hinders progressive taxation

The mother of all cognitive illusions: they believe that having to pay higher taxes would make it more difficult to buy what they want.

Relative position matters. Many wealthy individuals oppose higher taxes due to a fundamental misunderstanding: they believe higher taxes would reduce their ability to purchase desired goods and services. In reality, for most luxury and positional goods, what matters is relative purchasing power, which is unaffected by across-the-board tax increases.

This illusion leads to several problematic outcomes:

• Resistance to progressive taxation that could fund valuable public investments
• Underinvestment in public goods that would benefit everyone, including the wealthy
• Perpetuation of wasteful positional arms races in consumer spending

Overcoming this illusion is crucial for building political support for more progressive tax policies. By helping people understand that higher taxes on top earners would not meaningfully impact their lifestyle or status, we can unlock significant resources for addressing pressing social and environmental challenges.

10. Asking questions is more persuasive than telling in policy discussions

Questions of several different types are abundant in most conversations, but follow-up questions appear to have special power.

Curiosity trumps lecturing. When trying to persuade others on policy issues, asking thoughtful questions is often more effective than presenting arguments. This approach engages people's natural curiosity and allows them to reach conclusions on their own.

Effective questioning strategies:

• Use open-ended questions to encourage deeper reflection
• Ask about personal experiences related to the issue
• Explore the reasoning behind opposing views
• Use follow-up questions to show genuine interest and understanding

By fostering dialogue rather than debate, this approach can help overcome polarization and find common ground on contentious issues. It aligns with research showing that exposure to opposing views alone often backfires, while structured conversations focused on personal experiences can produce lasting attitude changes.

Last updated: August 30, 2024