The Confidence Game

1. Confidence games exploit our fundamental need to believe

"Religion," Voltaire is said to have remarked, "began when the first scoundrel met the first fool."

Belief is fundamental. Humans have an innate need to believe in something that gives life meaning and reaffirms our worldview. This desire makes us vulnerable to those who can identify and exploit our deepest hopes and fears. Con artists are masterful at recognizing what we want to believe and presenting themselves as the perfect vehicle to deliver on those desires.

Cons transcend intelligence. Anyone can fall victim to a confidence game, regardless of education, intelligence, or skepticism. The con artist's genius lies in figuring out what we want and how to present themselves as the means to achieve it. Examples of successful cons include:

• Religious cults promising salvation
• Investment schemes offering unrealistic returns
• Political movements exploiting fears and prejudices
• Fake healers preying on the desperately ill

2. The "put-up" involves careful victim selection and psychological profiling

"I can spot someone's weakness a mile away. In any room I can pick out the best target."

Victim selection is crucial. The first step of any con, known as the "put-up," involves carefully choosing the right mark. Con artists are expert at reading people and identifying vulnerabilities. They look for:

• Emotional states (loneliness, desperation, greed)
• Life circumstances (recent losses, major changes)
• Personality traits (narcissism, overconfidence)

Psychological profiling techniques. Con artists use various methods to gather information about potential victims:

• Observing body language and micro-expressions
• Engaging in small talk to probe for weaknesses
• Researching targets online and through social networks
• Using cold reading techniques to appear psychic or intuitive

3. Emotional manipulation is key to the "play" stage of a con

"When our emotions are awakened, we tend to rely on them more than on anything else."

Emotions override reason. The "play" stage of a con involves hooking the victim emotionally. Once emotions are engaged, logical thinking takes a backseat. Con artists exploit this by:

• Creating a sense of urgency or excitement
• Appealing to the victim's deepest desires or fears
• Using storytelling to bypass critical thinking

Types of emotional appeals. Different cons target different emotions:

• Greed (get-rich-quick schemes)
• Fear (health scares, impending disasters)
• Love and belonging (romance scams)
• Pride and ego (exclusive investments, special knowledge)

4. The "rope" uses persuasion tactics to hook the mark

"Be a patient listener (it is this, not fast talking, that gets a con man his coups)."

Persuasion principles. The "rope" stage involves using various psychological tactics to increase the mark's commitment. Key principles include:

• Reciprocity (doing small favors to create obligation)
• Social proof (showing others have bought in)
• Authority (posing as an expert or official)
• Scarcity (creating false sense of limited opportunity)

Building trust gradually. Con artists often start with small requests or investments, gradually increasing the stakes. This "foot-in-the-door" technique makes larger commitments seem more reasonable over time.

• Example: Starting with a free sample, then a small purchase, before pitching a major investment

5. The "tale" capitalizes on our belief in our own exceptionalism

"We believe we are singular, whatever the circumstances."

Illusory superiority. Most people believe they are above average in various traits and abilities. Con artists exploit this by:

• Flattering the mark's intelligence or insight
• Offering "exclusive" opportunities
• Appealing to the mark's sense of being special or chosen

Tailoring the tale. The con artist crafts a story that aligns with the mark's self-image and desires. This might involve:

• Insider knowledge of a lucrative investment
• A chance to be part of a world-changing venture
• An opportunity to outsmart the system

6. The "convincer" builds trust through small wins

"A con artist is only too happy to comply—and the well-crafted narrative is his absolute forte."

Demonstrating credibility. The "convincer" stage involves providing evidence that the con is legitimate. This often includes:

• Small initial payouts or successes
• Testimonials from other (fake) satisfied customers
• Impressive-looking documentation or credentials

Creating false security. By allowing the mark to experience some early success, the con artist:

• Builds confidence in the scheme
• Encourages larger investments
• Makes the mark less likely to question future requests

7. Sunk costs and cognitive biases fuel the "breakdown" and "send"

"The more and the longer we've invested in something, the more likely the sunk-cost argument is to get the better of both our reason and our perception."

Psychological traps. As the con progresses, various cognitive biases make it harder for the mark to walk away:

• Sunk cost fallacy (reluctance to abandon prior investments)
• Confirmation bias (seeking information that supports existing beliefs)
• Escalation of commitment (doubling down to recoup losses)

Rationalizing red flags. Marks often ignore or explain away warning signs due to:

• Fear of admitting they've been fooled
• Hope that things will turn around
• Cognitive dissonance between reality and their beliefs

8. The "touch" is when the mark is fully fleeced

"The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion draws all things else to support and agree with it."

Culmination of the con. The "touch" is when the con artist takes the mark for everything they can. This might involve:

• A final, large investment
• Convincing the mark to take out loans or liquidate assets
• Disappearing with all the accumulated funds

Psychological aftermath. Even after being fleeced, marks often:

• Struggle to accept they've been conned
• Continue to defend the con artist
• Blame themselves rather than the perpetrator

9. Reputation concerns often prevent victims from reporting cons

"Our reputation is the most important thing we have."

Fear of embarrassment. Many con victims don't report their experiences due to:

• Shame at being fooled
• Fear of judgment from others
• Desire to maintain their self-image

Social consequences. Reporting a con can have negative social impacts:

• Loss of trust from friends and family
• Damage to professional reputation
• Potential legal or financial consequences

Perpetuating the cycle. By not reporting cons, victims inadvertently:

• Allow con artists to continue operating
• Prevent others from learning from their experience
• Reinforce the idea that falling for a con is shameful

Last updated: January 23, 2025