The Formula

1. Success is a collective phenomenon, not an individual one

Your success isn't about you and your performance. It's about us and how we perceive your performance.

Redefining success. Success is not determined by individual achievement alone, but by how a community responds to and values that achievement. This collective definition of success explains why some highly talented individuals remain unrecognized while others with seemingly less merit rise to fame.

Implications for career strategy. Understanding success as a collective phenomenon shifts our approach to career development. Instead of solely focusing on personal skill improvement, individuals should also invest in building and nurturing networks, understanding their field's social dynamics, and aligning their work with what their community values.

Key components of success:

• Individual performance
• Community perception
• Network dynamics
• Alignment with collective values

2. Performance drives success when measurable, networks when not

Performance drives success, but when performance can't be measured, networks drive success.

Measurable vs. immeasurable fields. In domains where performance can be objectively quantified, such as sports or standardized test scores, success closely correlates with measurable achievement. However, in fields where performance is subjective or difficult to measure, like art or certain business roles, an individual's network becomes the primary driver of success.

The power of connections. In fields lacking clear performance metrics, success often hinges on who you know rather than what you know. This explains why some artists or business professionals with strong networks may achieve greater success than more talented but less connected peers.

Examples of measurable fields:

• Sports (e.g., tennis rankings)
• Academic test scores
• Sales figures

Examples of less measurable fields:

• Art
• Leadership
• Creative industries

3. Performance is bounded, but success is unbounded

Performance is bounded, but success is unbounded.

The limits of performance. Human performance in any field has natural upper limits. Even the most talented individuals can only improve so much beyond their peers. This explains why top performers in a field often have very similar levels of skill or achievement.

The unbounded nature of success. Unlike performance, success – measured in terms of recognition, rewards, or influence – can grow exponentially. This discrepancy explains why some individuals achieve disproportionate levels of success compared to their slightly better-performing peers.

Implications of bounded performance:

• Diminishing returns on skill improvement
• Difficulty in distinguishing top performers

Manifestations of unbounded success:

• Superstar phenomena in various fields
• Winner-take-all markets
• Exponential growth in recognition or rewards

4. Previous success and fitness together determine future success

Previous success × fitness = future success.

The multiplicative effect. Future success is not determined by past achievements or inherent quality alone, but by the combination of both. This explains why some high-quality work may go unnoticed without initial success, while mediocre work with early success can continue to thrive.

Strategies for success. Understanding this formula allows individuals and organizations to strategically focus on both improving the quality of their work (fitness) and actively seeking initial recognition or success. Neither factor alone is sufficient for sustained success.

Components of the success formula:

1. Previous success: Initial recognition, early adopters, or "lucky breaks"
2. Fitness: Inherent quality or competitiveness of the work or individual
3. Future success: Continued recognition, rewards, or influence

5. Team success requires diversity, balance, and leadership

While team success requires diversity and balance, a single individual will receive credit for the group's achievements.

The paradox of teamwork. Successful teams require a diverse mix of skills, perspectives, and personalities working in balance. However, credit for team achievements often accrues disproportionately to a single leader or figurehead.

Implications for team building and management. Leaders should focus on assembling diverse teams and fostering balanced contributions while also recognizing the importance of having a clear leadership figure to drive the team forward and represent its achievements.

Key elements of successful teams:

• Diverse skill sets and perspectives
• Balanced contributions from members
• Strong, visible leadership
• Recognition of individual contributions within the team

6. Credit allocation is based on perception, not performance

Credit for teamwork isn't based on performance. Credit is based on perception.

The role of visibility. In collaborative efforts, credit is often allocated based on how visible an individual's contributions are, rather than the actual value or effort put in. This explains why public-facing team members or those with established reputations often receive disproportionate credit.

Strategies for recognition. Understanding this principle, team members should focus not only on contributing valuable work but also on effectively communicating their contributions and building a reputation within their field.

Factors influencing credit allocation:

• Visibility of contributions
• Pre-existing reputation
• Ability to communicate value of work
• Position within team hierarchy

7. With persistence, success can come at any time

With persistence success can come at any time.

The myth of the age limit. Contrary to popular belief, there is no inherent age limit to creativity or success. While many notable achievements occur early in careers, breakthrough success can happen at any age for those who persist.

The importance of productivity. The key to increasing the chances of success at any age is maintaining high levels of productivity. Each new project or attempt is essentially another "lottery ticket" for success, and the more tickets one has, the higher the chances of winning.

Strategies for persistent success:

• Maintain high levels of productivity throughout career
• Continuously learn and adapt to new developments in your field
• Don't be discouraged by early or mid-career setbacks
• Recognize that each new project is a potential breakthrough

Last updated: January 24, 2025