The Fourth Turning Is Here

1. The Fourth Turning: A Recurring Cycle of Crisis and Renewal in History

"History is seasonal, and winter is here."

The saeculum concept. The saeculum, an ancient Etruscan idea, represents a long human life of roughly 80-100 years. This period is divided into four turnings, each lasting about 20-25 years:

• First Turning (High): A period of strong institutions and social conformity
• Second Turning (Awakening): An era of spiritual upheaval and rebellion against institutions
• Third Turning (Unraveling): A time of weakening institutions and strengthening individualism
• Fourth Turning (Crisis): A decisive period that redefines social and political life

Historical patterns. This cycle has repeated throughout Anglo-American history, with notable Fourth Turnings including:

• The War of the Roses (1455-1487)
• The Armada Crisis (1569-1597)
• The Glorious Revolution (1675-1706)
• The American Revolution (1773-1794)
• The Civil War (1860-1865)
• The Great Depression and World War II (1929-1946)

Each Fourth Turning has led to a dramatic reshaping of society, often through conflict and upheaval, but ultimately resulting in renewed institutions and a stronger sense of community.

2. Generational Archetypes: Prophets, Nomads, Heroes, and Artists

"Each generation belongs to one of four archetypes, heroic, artistic, prophetic, and nomadic."

The four archetypes. These recurring generational types play specific roles in the cycle of turnings:

1. Prophets: Born during a High, idealistic and values-driven
2. Nomads: Born during an Awakening, pragmatic and survival-oriented
3. Heroes: Born during an Unraveling, optimistic and team-oriented
4. Artists: Born during a Crisis, adaptive and consensus-building

Generational roles in crisis. During a Fourth Turning:

• Prophet elders provide vision and values
• Nomads in midlife offer pragmatic leadership
• Heroes in young adulthood serve as the powerful doers
• Artists in childhood are the protected and later, the sensitive adults who help rebuild

This interplay of generational archetypes drives the dynamics of each turning and shapes the response to crises.

3. The Millennial Crisis: America's Current Fourth Turning

"A Crisis arises in response to sudden threats that previously would have been ignored or deferred, but which are now perceived as dire."

Crisis catalysts. The Millennial Crisis began with the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, followed by:

• Rising political polarization
• Increasing economic inequality
• Growing distrust in institutions
• The COVID-19 pandemic
• Geopolitical tensions, including the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Social mood shift. As the crisis deepens, Americans are experiencing:

• A growing sense of urgency about national problems
• Increasing willingness to support strong collective action
• Rising concern about the future of democracy and national unity

The Millennial Crisis is expected to reach its climax around 2030, potentially resulting in a dramatic reshaping of American society and its global role.

4. Social Transformation During Crisis Eras: From Individualism to Community

"During a Crisis, individuals reattach themselves to their community and turn society outward toward a single and objective goal."

Shift in social priorities. Crisis eras bring about significant changes in social dynamics:

• From individualism to community focus
• From privilege to greater equality
• From defiance to respect for authority
• From short-term thinking to long-term planning
• From irony and cynicism to sincerity and convention

Institutional changes. These shifts in social priorities lead to:

• Strengthening of government and civic institutions
• Increased willingness to sacrifice for the common good
• Greater emphasis on national unity and purpose
• Renewed focus on long-term investments and reforms

This transformation sets the stage for a new social order that emerges after the crisis is resolved.

5. The Role of Generations in Shaping Historical Crises

"Generational aging is what translates the rhythm of the past into the rhythm of the future."

Generational constellation. During the current Fourth Turning:

• Boomers (Prophets) in elderhood: Providing moral leadership and vision
• Generation X (Nomads) in midlife: Offering pragmatic crisis management
• Millennials (Heroes) in young adulthood: Serving as the powerful doers
• Homelanders (Artists) in childhood: Protected and later helping to rebuild

Generational dynamics. Each generation's unique experiences and characteristics shape their response to the crisis:

• Boomers: Idealistic and values-driven, pushing for transformative change
• Gen X: Resilient and adaptable, providing practical leadership
• Millennials: Optimistic and civic-minded, ready for collective action
• Homelanders: Growing up during crisis, developing a cautious worldview

The interplay between these generations will largely determine how the Millennial Crisis unfolds and is ultimately resolved.

6. The Potential Outcomes of the Millennial Crisis: Civil War or Great-Power Conflict

"The risk of catastrophe will be high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil conflict, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule."

Possible scenarios. The authors outline several potential paths for the Millennial Crisis:

1. Civil conflict: Deepening political polarization leads to violent internal strife
2. External war: America unites to face a major foreign threat, possibly China or Russia
3. Combination: Internal divisions are redrawn in response to external challenges

Factors influencing outcomes:

• Severity of economic challenges
• Degree of political polarization
• Emergence of effective leadership
• Global geopolitical developments
• Technological disruptions

The resolution of the crisis will likely involve significant social upheaval and sacrifice, but could also lead to a renewed and strengthened American society.

7. Preparing for the Climax: The Importance of Leadership and Collective Action

"If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort—in other words, a total war—precisely because so much will seem to rest on the outcome."

Leadership challenges. As the crisis deepens, effective leadership will be crucial:

• Ability to unite diverse factions towards common goals
• Willingness to make difficult decisions and demand sacrifices
• Vision to guide the nation through transformative change

Collective action. The resolution of the crisis will require:

• Renewed sense of civic duty and national purpose
• Willingness to sacrifice individual interests for collective good
• Mobilization of resources on a massive scale

Potential for renewal. While the climax of the crisis may involve significant hardship, it also offers the opportunity for:

• Addressing long-standing social and economic issues
• Rebuilding and modernizing national infrastructure
• Redefining America's role in the world
• Establishing a new social contract for the post-crisis era

The actions taken during this critical period will shape American society for generations to come.

Last updated: July 21, 2024