The Future of the Professions

1. The Professions' Grand Bargain is Crumbling

In acknowledgement of and in return for their expertise, experience, and judgement, which they are expected to apply in delivering affordable, accessible, up-to-date, reassuring, and reliable services…we (society) place our trust in the professions.

The Grand Bargain Defined. The professions have long held a privileged position in society, granted exclusivity and autonomy in exchange for their expertise, ethical conduct, and commitment to serving the public good. This "grand bargain" has underpinned the structure of professional work for centuries, ensuring that individuals and organizations have access to specialized knowledge and trustworthy guidance. However, this arrangement is now facing unprecedented challenges.

Problems with the Status Quo. The professions are failing economically, technologically, psychologically, morally, qualitatively, and in terms of their inscrutability. The high cost of professional services makes them inaccessible to many, while antiquated techniques for knowledge sharing and a lack of transparency further erode their value. The professions often discourage self-help, self-discovery, and self-reliance, and they can unnecessarily inhibit or even alienate individuals who, once equipped with better insight, would benefit from engaging and participating more directly in their problems.

A Call for Change. The professions are not immutable, but an artifact built to meet specific needs in a print-based industrial society. As we transition to a technology-based Internet society, the grand bargain needs revision or termination. The future of the professions is too important to be left solely in the hands of its members; recipients of professional services must also contribute to discussions of the future.

2. Technology Drives a Transformation of Expertise

Technology will be the main driver of this change.

Technology as a Catalyst. Technology is not merely a tool for improving existing professional practices; it is a catalyst for fundamental transformation. Increasingly capable machines, operating independently or with non-specialist users, are taking on tasks that were once the exclusive domain of human experts. This shift is driven by the exponential growth of information technology, increasingly pervasive devices, and increasingly connected humans.

Examples of Technological Transformation:

• Online courses are reaching more students than traditional universities.
• Health websites are providing information to more people than doctors.
• Online dispute resolution is resolving more conflicts than courts.
• Tax software is enabling individuals to file returns without professional assistance.

The Future of Expertise. The traditional model of expertise, where knowledge resides solely in the minds of professionals, is being challenged by new systems that make expertise more accessible and affordable. This transformation is not limited to specific professions; it is a broad trend that is reshaping the way we access and utilize knowledge in society.

3. Patterns of Change Emerge Across Professions

Professions beware! In this insightful and thought-provoking book, Richard and Daniel Susskind capture the essence of today’s changing environment where, whilst the destination may not be certain, it is clear the status quo will not survive.

Common Trends. Despite the diversity of the professions, several common patterns of change are emerging. These include the end of an era of bespoke service, the bypassing of traditional gatekeepers, a shift from reactive to proactive approaches, and the more-for-less challenge. These patterns are driven by technological advancements, economic pressures, and changing societal expectations.

Key Trends:

• Routinization: Professional tasks are being broken down into standardized processes.
• Disintermediation: Technology is enabling individuals to access expertise directly, bypassing traditional intermediaries.
• New Labor Models: New roles are emerging, such as para-professionals, data scientists, and system engineers.
• More Options for Recipients: Individuals have more choices in how they access and utilize expertise, including online self-help and personalized services.

The Need for Adaptation. The professions must adapt to these changes or risk becoming obsolete. This requires embracing new technologies, developing new skills, and re-evaluating traditional business models.

4. Information Technology Underpins Societal Transformation

The difficulty lies, not in the new ideas, but in escaping from the old ones, which ramify, for those brought up as most of us have been, into every corner of our minds.

Information as Infrastructure. The way we store and communicate information has a direct impact on how we share expertise in society. The shift from oral traditions to script, print, and now information technology has fundamentally altered the landscape of knowledge production and distribution. The professions, as gatekeepers of knowledge, are particularly affected by these changes.

Four Key Developments in IT:

• Exponential Growth: Processing power, storage capacity, and bandwidth are increasing at an exponential rate.
• Capable Machines: Machines are becoming increasingly capable of performing tasks that once required human intelligence.
• Pervasive Devices: Computing devices are becoming smaller, cheaper, and more ubiquitous, embedding themselves into our daily lives.
• Connected Humans: The Internet is connecting billions of people, creating new opportunities for collaboration and knowledge sharing.

The Future is Connected. These developments are creating a technology-based Internet society where expertise is more accessible, affordable, and democratized than ever before.

5. Knowledge Economics Reshapes Professional Work

The difficulty lies, not in the new ideas, but in escaping from the old ones, which ramify, for those brought up as most of us have been, into every corner of our minds.

Knowledge as an Economic Good. Knowledge possesses unique economic characteristics that distinguish it from physical goods. It is non-rivalrous, meaning that its use by one person does not diminish its availability to others. It is also non-excludable, meaning that it is difficult to prevent others from accessing and using it. These characteristics have profound implications for the production and distribution of expertise.

The Evolution of Professional Work:

• Craft: Traditional, bespoke service delivered by individual experts.
• Standardization: Routine tasks are codified and standardized to improve efficiency.
• Systemization: Technology is used to automate and enhance standardized processes.
• Externalization: Expertise is made available online, either for a fee or for free.

New Models for Expertise: The traditional model of professional work is being challenged by new models that leverage technology and collaboration to make expertise more accessible and affordable. These models include networked experts, para-professionals, knowledge engineering, communities of experience, embedded knowledge, and machine-generated expertise.

6. Objections to Change Stem from Understandable Anxieties

The difficulty lies, not in the new ideas, but in escaping from the old ones, which ramify, for those brought up as most of us have been, into every corner of our minds.

Addressing Concerns. The transformation of the professions is not without its challenges and anxieties. Common objections include concerns about trust, the moral limits of markets, the loss of craft, the decline of personal interaction, the erosion of empathy, the nature of good work, and the future of expertise. These concerns are rooted in understandable fears about the disruption of established practices and the potential loss of valued aspects of professional life.

Underlying Mistakes:

• Confusing the means with the end: Focusing on the professions themselves rather than the goal of making expertise accessible.
• Failing to balance competing values: Prioritizing tradition over the potential for greater access and affordability.
• Expecting more from machines than from ourselves: Holding new systems to a higher standard than current practices.

A Call for Open-Mindedness. By addressing these objections and recognizing the underlying mistakes, we can foster a more open and constructive dialogue about the future of the professions.

7. Machines Augment, Not Just Replace, Human Capabilities

The difficulty lies, not in the new ideas, but in escaping from the old ones, which ramify, for those brought up as most of us have been, into every corner of our minds.

The Power of Augmentation. The rise of increasingly capable machines does not necessarily mean the end of human involvement in professional work. Instead, machines can augment human capabilities, allowing professionals to focus on tasks that require creativity, critical thinking, and emotional intelligence. This collaboration between humans and machines can lead to better outcomes than either could achieve alone.

New Roles for Humans:

• Craftspeople: Providing bespoke solutions for complex and unique problems.
• Assistants: Supporting craftspeople with routine tasks and administrative duties.
• Para-professionals: Delivering standardized services with the aid of technology.
• Empathizers: Providing emotional support and guidance to clients and patients.
• R&D Workers: Developing new technologies and approaches to professional work.
• Knowledge Engineers: Articulating and codifying expertise for use in online systems.
• Process Analysts: Designing and optimizing workflows to improve efficiency.
• Moderators: Ensuring the quality and accuracy of information in online communities.
• Designers: Creating user-friendly interfaces for online services.
• System Providers: Managing and maintaining the infrastructure for online services.
• Data Scientists: Analyzing large datasets to identify patterns and insights.
• Systems Engineers: Developing and maintaining the hardware and software that power increasingly capable machines.

A Shift in Focus. The future of professional work will require a shift in focus from rote memorization and manual tasks to higher-level skills such as critical thinking, creativity, and collaboration.

8. The Future Demands a Re-evaluation of Work and Expertise

The difficulty lies, not in the new ideas, but in escaping from the old ones, which ramify, for those brought up as most of us have been, into every corner of our minds.

The Need for a New Mindset. The transformation of the professions requires a fundamental shift in mindset, away from the assumption that the traditional model is the only or best way to share expertise. We must be open to alternative solutions that are more affordable, accessible, and empowering. This requires challenging long-held beliefs and practices and embracing new ways of thinking about work and expertise.

Key Questions for the Future:

• How do we structure and control expertise in society?
• How do we ensure that everyone has access to the knowledge and resources they need to thrive?
• How do we create a future where technology empowers human beings rather than replacing them?

A Call to Action. The future of the professions is not predetermined. It is up to us to shape it in a way that benefits all of society. This requires a willingness to embrace change, challenge assumptions, and work together to create a more equitable and accessible future for expertise.

Last updated: April 23, 2025