The Godfather Doctrine

1. America's global dominance is ending, ushering in a multipolar world

America in 2009 is economically palsied, diplomatically isolated, and militarily exhausted.

A new geopolitical reality. The United States is facing unprecedented challenges to its global supremacy. Economic troubles, diplomatic setbacks, and military overextension have weakened America's position on the world stage. This decline coincides with the rise of new powers such as China, India, and a resurgent Russia, creating a more complex and multipolar international system.

Implications for foreign policy. As America's unipolar moment fades, policymakers must adapt to a world where power is more diffuse and competition among nations is intensifying. This shift requires a fundamental reevaluation of U.S. foreign policy objectives and strategies. The tools and approaches that worked during the Cold War or the immediate post-Cold War period are no longer sufficient to navigate this new landscape.

2. Liberal institutionalism and neoconservatism are inadequate for the new era

Saying that we mean well is unlikely to convince the rest of the world to forsake its own dreams, values, and interests.

Limitations of current approaches. Both liberal institutionalism and neoconservatism, the dominant foreign policy schools in recent decades, are rooted in idealistic notions that fail to address the realities of the emerging multipolar world:

• Liberal institutionalism:

  • Overreliance on international institutions
  • Assumption that rules can trump power
  • Belief in universal legitimacy of global organizations

• Neoconservatism:

  • Overemphasis on military solutions
  • Unrealistic goal of reshaping other nations in America's image
  • Disregard for the limits of U.S. power and influence

Need for a new paradigm. These approaches, while well-intentioned, are ill-suited to navigate the complexities of a world where multiple centers of power pursue their own interests. A more pragmatic and flexible foreign policy framework is required to protect and advance American interests in this new geopolitical environment.

3. Realism offers the best approach for navigating the changing geopolitical landscape

To make the world better, we must see it as it is, warts and all, rather than as we would like it to be.

Pragmatism over idealism. Realism provides a clear-eyed assessment of power dynamics in international relations, focusing on national interests and the balance of power. This approach:

• Recognizes the limits of American power and influence
• Prioritizes strategic interests over ideological goals
• Adapts policies to changing geopolitical realities

Historical roots and relevance. Realism has deep roots in American foreign policy, from George Washington's pragmatic approach to the Jay Treaty to the containment strategy of the Cold War. Its emphasis on understanding power dynamics and pursuing national interests makes it well-suited for navigating the complexities of a multipolar world.

4. The Godfather serves as a metaphor for America's foreign policy challenges

The travails of the Corleone family in the anarchic and fluid world of organized crime are not unlike those America will face in the anarchic and fluid world of geopolitics.

A powerful analogy. The Godfather's narrative of a dominant family facing new challenges and rivals provides a compelling framework for understanding America's current geopolitical predicament:

• Vito Corleone: Symbol of Cold War American power
• Sollozzo's attack: Represents unexpected challenges to U.S. dominance
• Corleone brothers: Embody different foreign policy approaches

Insights from fiction. By examining the strategies and outcomes of the Corleone family's response to crisis, we can gain valuable insights into the potential consequences of different foreign policy approaches in a changing world order.

5. Tom Hagen represents liberal institutionalism's overreliance on diplomacy

Like more than one of the recent Democratic contenders for the presidency, Tom thinks that even a rogue power like Sollozzo can be brought to terms, if only the family will take the time to hear his proposals and accommodate his needs.

Limitations of soft power. Tom Hagen's approach, relying heavily on negotiation and institutional frameworks, mirrors the liberal institutionalist belief in the primacy of diplomacy and international organizations. However, this strategy:

• Assumes continued American dominance in a changing world
• Underestimates the ambitions and motivations of rising powers
• Fails to recognize the need for credible hard power to back up diplomatic efforts

Misreading the new reality. Like Tom, liberal institutionalists often fail to recognize that the rules-based order they champion is being challenged by powers that no longer see it as serving their interests. This misreading can lead to ineffective policies that fail to protect American interests in a more competitive global environment.

6. Sonny Corleone embodies neoconservatism's aggressive militarism

Sonny's damn-the-torpedoes approach belies a deep-seated fear that the only way to reestablish the family's dominance is to eradicate all possible future threats to it, however remote.

The pitfalls of overreliance on force. Sonny's aggressive approach mirrors neoconservative tendencies in U.S. foreign policy:

• Overemphasis on military solutions
• Belief in the efficacy of preemptive action
• Disregard for diplomatic complexities and long-term consequences

Counterproductive outcomes. Like Sonny's actions, which ultimately weaken the Corleone family, neoconservative policies can lead to:

• Overextension of military resources
• Alienation of allies and potential partners
• Unintended consequences that undermine long-term strategic interests

7. Michael Corleone exemplifies realism's pragmatic and flexible approach

Michael sees it as a hidden opportunity. For Michael knows that if the family will act decisively, before the Tattaglias and Barzinis have acquired a commanding margin of power, it can rearrange the existing institutional setup in ways that satisfy the new power centers but still serve vital Corleone interests.

Adapting to new realities. Michael's approach embodies key realist principles:

• Clear-eyed assessment of power dynamics
• Flexible use of both soft and hard power
• Focus on long-term strategic interests

Strategic retrenchment. Michael's strategy of shifting the family's focus to Las Vegas parallels the realist call for America to adapt its global posture to reflect new power realities while preserving core interests.

8. Effective foreign policy requires a balance of soft and hard power

Michael understands that, no matter how strong its military or how savvy its diplomats, the Corleone family will not succeed in the multipolar environment ahead unless it learns to take better care of its allies.

A comprehensive toolbox. Effective foreign policy in a multipolar world requires:

• Skillful diplomacy backed by credible military power
• Economic incentives and sanctions
• Cultural and ideological influence

Flexible application. Like Michael, policymakers must be prepared to use different tools in different combinations as circumstances dictate, avoiding overreliance on any single approach.

9. Alliance management is crucial in a multipolar world

Even small allies could potentially prove crucial in "tipping the scales" to the family's advantage, as they will for America, once multipolarity is in full swing.

Cultivating partnerships. In a more competitive global environment, the U.S. must:

• Reinvest in traditional alliances
• Build new partnerships with rising powers
• Recognize the strategic value of smaller allies

Reciprocity and respect. Effective alliance management requires:

• Acknowledging partners' interests and concerns
• Demonstrating reliability and commitment
• Sharing benefits and burdens equitably

10. Institutions must be adapted to reflect new power realities

Rather than ignoring this phenomenon, as Tom does, or, like Sonny, launching a frontal assault against it, Michael sees it as a hidden opportunity.

Proactive institutional reform. The U.S. should:

• Lead efforts to reform existing international institutions
• Create new frameworks that incorporate rising powers
• Ensure American interests are protected in evolving global governance structures

Shaping the new order. By taking the initiative in institutional reform, the U.S. can:

• Maintain influence in a changing world
• Integrate rising powers into a rules-based system
• Preserve core American interests and values

11. Decisive action is necessary to shape the emerging world order

By devoting all the resources he has inherited from the world that Vito built—all the family's remaining allies, its clout, and, yes, its muscle—to removing the constraints on his immediate freedom of maneuver, he is able to pave the way for the Vegas plan to succeed, creating a springboard from which the family can sally into the new era from a position of unmistakable strength.

Seizing the moment. The U.S. must act decisively to:

• Address immediate threats and challenges
• Position itself advantageously in the emerging multipolar order
• Create a foundation for long-term strategic success

Comprehensive approach. Effective action requires:

• Clear strategic vision
• Mobilization of all national resources
• Willingness to make difficult choices and trade-offs

Last updated: August 9, 2024