The Hidden History of Burma

1. Myanmar's Identity Crisis is Rooted in Colonial History

The modern Burmese state was born as a military occupation.

Colonial creation. Before British rule, the region was a patchwork of kingdoms and diverse ethnic groups with fluid identities. The British conquest, completed by 1885, dismantled the existing monarchy and institutions, imposing a new administrative structure and drawing arbitrary borders that created the modern state of Burma. This military occupation established a hierarchy based on ethnicity, with Europeans at the top, followed by Indian and Chinese immigrants, and then the diverse indigenous groups, sowing seeds of future conflict.

Plural society. British policy encouraged mass immigration from the Indian subcontinent to provide labor for the burgeoning export economy (timber, oil, rice). Millions arrived, creating a "plural society" where different ethnic groups interacted primarily in the marketplace but lived separate lives. This influx, particularly of Indian laborers and moneylenders, fueled resentment among the Burmese majority, who felt marginalized in their own land and saw their identity threatened, leading to the rise of ethno-nationalism.

Defining "indigenous". The British attempted to categorize the population, using language and perceived physical traits to define "races" and "indigenous" groups. This process was often inconsistent and arbitrary, but it solidified the idea of fixed ethnic identities and laid the groundwork for later debates about who truly belonged in the nation. The term "kala" (originally for people from the west, especially India) acquired negative connotations, and the concept of "native races" became central to the emerging nationalist discourse.

2. Military Rule Led to Isolation, Poverty, and State Weakness

The price was material and intellectual poverty, at the very top of the Asian league.

Socialist isolation. Following independence and civil war, the military seized power in 1962, implementing the "Burmese Way to Socialism." This policy involved nationalization, expulsion of foreigners (especially Indians), and severe isolation from the global economy and outside ideas. While it aimed for equality and self-reliance, it resulted in economic stagnation, widespread poverty, and the decay of infrastructure and institutions, including a once-proud education system.

Authoritarian control. The military regime, initially led by Ne Win and later by Than Shwe, maintained power through brutal repression, silencing dissent, imprisoning opponents, and controlling all aspects of public life. This created a climate of fear and prevented the development of a robust civil society or independent political institutions. The state became synonymous with the military, prioritizing security and control over public welfare or development.

Lack of capacity. Decades of isolation and mismanagement left the government with severely limited capacity. Public services like health and education were chronically underfunded, leading to humanitarian crises (malnutrition, disease). The state bureaucracy became inefficient and corrupt, more adept at controlling the population and extracting resources than at providing essential services or managing the economy effectively. This weakness would become starkly apparent during crises like Cyclone Nargis.

3. Unexpected Reforms Opened Myanmar, Driven by Internal Shifts

A door that no one had thought would open was slowly creaking ajar.

Internal pressures. Despite decades of seemingly impenetrable military rule and ineffective Western sanctions, internal pressures for change were building. Economic stagnation, widespread poverty, and the devastating impact of Cyclone Nargis in 2008 highlighted the government's inability to manage the country. Simultaneously, a new generation of military leaders, influenced by exposure to the outside world and concerned about the country's future, began to consider alternative paths.

Than Shwe's plan. Senior General Than Shwe, the long-time strongman, orchestrated a carefully planned transition designed to secure the military's long-term role while allowing for a degree of political and economic opening. This involved drafting a new constitution guaranteeing military power, holding a managed election in 2010, and retiring himself while installing trusted subordinates in key positions within the new quasi-civilian government and the military.

Thein Sein's initiative. Unexpectedly, the chosen president, Thein Sein, a low-profile former general, proved willing to pursue genuine reforms. Encouraged by a small group of reform-minded ministers and outside advisors, he initiated a rapid series of changes:

• Releasing political prisoners
• Lifting media censorship
• Inviting ethnic armed groups for peace talks
• Engaging with Aung San Suu Kyi
• Implementing significant economic reforms (currency, trade, investment laws)

These actions, initially met with skepticism, created a momentum for change that surprised both domestic and international observers.

4. Economic Opening Fueled Cronyism and Inequality, Not Broad Prosperity

Some liked to put an adjective in front of the word ‘capitalism’: crony capitalism, ceasefire capitalism, army capitalism.

Market return. The abandonment of socialist policies in the late 1980s and the formal economic opening under Thein Sein led to a surge in business activity and foreign investment. Yangon transformed rapidly with new hotels, restaurants, and shopping centers, and mobile phone penetration exploded across the country. This brought new opportunities and a growing urban middle class, lifting millions out of extreme poverty and improving some social indicators like child health.

Illicit economies. However, the economic opening built upon a foundation of decades of cronyism and illicit trade established under military rule. Ceasefire agreements with ethnic armed groups in the 1990s often involved tacit permission for involvement in profitable illegal activities like drug production (heroin, later meth), logging, and jade mining. These economies continued to thrive, generating billions of dollars that flowed into the hands of military elites, ethnic armed group leaders, and their business associates.

Persistent inequality. The benefits of economic growth were highly unevenly distributed. Those with connections to the military or ethnic armed groups amassed vast fortunes through privileged access to land, licenses, and state contracts. Meanwhile, millions of rural poor lost their land, were displaced by development projects, or migrated to urban slums or neighboring countries for precarious low-wage jobs. The formal economy struggled to compete with the entrenched power and wealth of the informal and illicit sectors.

5. The "Democratic Transition" Was an Uneasy Power-Sharing Arrangement

The constitution was not a democratic constitution.

Military's enduring power. The 2008 constitution, drafted under military guidance, ensured the armed forces retained significant power. They controlled key ministries (Defense, Home Affairs, Border Affairs) and held a guaranteed 25% of parliamentary seats, giving them veto power over constitutional amendments. The president, though nominally civilian, was selected through a process that required military approval, and the military commander-in-chief operated largely autonomously.

NLD's limited authority. While the NLD's landslide victory in 2015 brought Aung San Suu Kyi and her party to power, they inherited a system where their authority was constrained. Aung San Suu Kyi was constitutionally barred from the presidency, leading to the creation of the State Counsellor role. The NLD government struggled to control the military, reform the bureaucracy (still staffed by former military personnel), or dismantle the entrenched networks of power and privilege.

Political gridlock. The relationship between the NLD government and the military was marked by tension and mistrust. The NLD prioritized constitutional reform to reduce military power, while the military insisted on stability and the disarmament of ethnic armed groups as preconditions. This fundamental disagreement, coupled with personality clashes and a lack of effective communication, led to political gridlock and hindered the government's ability to implement its agenda or address pressing national issues.

6. Ethno-Nationalism and Religious Tensions Exploded Violently

In a country where there was no other ideology or cause, identity-based mobilization was clearly an effective way to gain political ground.

Resurgent identity politics. The opening of political space after decades of suppression allowed long-simmering tensions related to ethnicity and religion to resurface violently. Historical grievances, fueled by colonial-era divisions and military policies that favored the Bamar majority, combined with new anxieties about modernization and perceived threats to traditional Buddhist culture.

Anti-Muslim sentiment. Anti-Muslim sentiment, particularly targeting the Rohingya, escalated dramatically after the 2012 violence in Rakhine State. This was driven by a mix of factors:

• Historical narratives portraying Muslims as foreign invaders
• Fears of demographic change and a perceived threat to Buddhist dominance
• The rise of nationalist groups like Ma Ba Tha, led by influential monks
• The spread of misinformation and hate speech on social media, especially Facebook

The government's inconsistent response and the military's heavy-handed tactics exacerbated the situation, leading to further violence and displacement.

Weaponizing identity. Political actors, including some within the military and nationalist movements, exploited these tensions for political gain. The debate over the term "Rohingya" became highly charged, with many insisting on "Bengali" to deny their indigenous status. Discriminatory laws were passed, and the Rohingya were effectively disenfranchised, demonstrating how identity politics could be used to exclude and marginalize vulnerable groups in the new political landscape.

7. The Peace Process Struggled Against Deep-Seated Conflict and Illicit Economies

If you really want to be serious about this, you have to look at the income substitution problem.

Complex conflict. Myanmar's civil war, the world's longest, involves numerous ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) with diverse motivations, histories, and relationships with the central government. While some EAOs sought genuine autonomy within a federal system, others were deeply involved in lucrative illicit economies (drugs, jade, logging) along the borders, making peace a threat to their financial interests.

Uneven progress. Thein Sein's government achieved significant initial success in signing ceasefires with many EAOs, largely through the efforts of negotiators like Aung Min who built trust and offered economic incentives. However, these were often fragile agreements that did not address the underlying political issues or the economic drivers of conflict. Major groups like the United Wa State Army remained outside the process, and fighting continued or reignited in several areas, notably Kachin and Shan states.

External influence. The peace process became increasingly complex due to the involvement of external actors. China, concerned about border stability and its economic interests, exerted influence over EAOs along its border. Western governments and international NGOs provided funding and advice, sometimes inadvertently complicating negotiations or alienating key players. The focus on a nationwide ceasefire agreement, while symbolically important, became bogged down in political wrangling and failed to build the necessary trust or address the fundamental issues of federalism and security sector reform.

8. External Engagement Often Misunderstood Myanmar's Complex Reality

The powerful narrative of good versus evil had trumped all other considerations.

Simplistic framing. For decades, Western engagement with Myanmar was largely framed as a moral struggle between a brutal military junta and a heroic democracy icon, Aung San Suu Kyi. This narrative, while containing elements of truth, often overlooked the country's complex history, diverse ethnic landscape, deep-seated social issues, and the internal dynamics within both the military and the opposition.

Sanctions' impact. Western sanctions, particularly those imposed by the US, were intended to pressure the military but often had unintended consequences, exacerbating poverty and hindering the development of a legitimate private sector, while allowing cronies with military ties to thrive in illicit economies. They also contributed to Myanmar's isolation, limiting opportunities for engagement and mutual understanding.

Engagement challenges. The shift towards engagement under Thein Sein and the NLD government presented new challenges. Foreign governments and organizations, eager to support the transition, sometimes
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Last updated: June 8, 2025