The Kremlin School of Negotiation

1. Master the Kremlin School: Listen, Question, Depreciate, Offer, and Create Uncertainty

No one has ever squeezed better terms out of a supplier than those the supplier squeezes out of themselves.

Five Postulates. The Kremlin School of Negotiation, though seemingly brutal, is a strategic approach based on five key postulates: listen attentively to gather information, ask questions to control the conversation, subtly depreciate your opponent's position, offer a way out (the "red carpet"), and create a zone of uncertainty to leverage fear and need. These techniques, when used ethically, can be powerful tools for achieving your goals.

Emotional Pendulum. The method also uses the "pendulum of emotions," swinging from positive engagement (listening and questioning) to negative (depreciation) and back to positive (offering a way out), before finally creating uncertainty. This emotional manipulation is designed to make your opponent more pliable and willing to concede.

Ethical Considerations. While effective, the Kremlin method raises ethical questions. It can damage long-term relationships if not used carefully. It's crucial to use these techniques responsibly, focusing on fair outcomes rather than simply dominating the negotiation.

2. Negotiation is a Process, Not a Battle: Identify Motives and Plan Your Next Steps

Negotiations cannot be won or lost. What you can do, however, is determine exactly where you are in the negotiation process, and what the next steps need to be.

Beyond Win-Lose. Viewing negotiations as a win-lose battle is detrimental. Instead, see it as a process with multiple stages and potential outcomes. Focus on understanding your position and your opponent's motives, and plan your next steps accordingly.

Identify Motives. Before entering negotiations, determine your opponent's primary motive. Are they seeking to extend an agreement, normalize relations, redistribute resources, reach a new agreement, gather information, mislead, or provoke? Understanding their true goal is crucial for selecting the right strategy.

Types of Negotiations. Recognize the type of negotiation you're in: extending agreements, normalizing relations, redistributing resources, reaching new agreements, gathering information, misleading, or provocation. Each type requires a different approach and strategy.

3. Be Both Lion and Fox: Defend Interests and Manage Emotions

A ruler who just plays the lion and forgets the fox doesn’t know what he’s doing.

Lion's Strength. Like a lion, a negotiator must be able to defend their interests with strength and determination. This involves knowing your goals, having the willpower to pursue them, and being prepared to fight for what you believe in.

Fox's Cunning. Like a fox, a negotiator must be able to manage their emotions and the emotions of others. This involves being observant, strategic, and able to see the "snares" that emotions can create. It's about using emotions to your advantage, not letting them control you.

Balance is Key. Effective negotiation requires a balance of both lion-like strength and fox-like cunning. You must be able to defend your interests while also managing the emotional dynamics of the negotiation process.

4. Forecast Your Position: Importance and Irreplaceability

To make an adequate forecast, you must look at the situation – and at yourself – from your opponent’s perspective.

Forecast Matrix. Before entering negotiations, use a forecast matrix to assess your position from your opponent's perspective. Rate yourself on a scale of 0 to 10 for both "importance" (how much they need you) and "irreplaceability" (how hard it would be to find a substitute).

Four Categories. Based on your ratings, you'll fall into one of four categories: "Supermarket" (low importance, easily replaced), "Opportunity" (low importance, unique), "Lever" (high importance, easily replaced), or "Partner" (high importance, unique). Each category requires a different negotiation strategy.

Maneuver or Combat. If you fall into the "Supermarket" or "Opportunity" categories, focus on maneuvering to strengthen your position before engaging in combat. If you are a "Lever" or "Partner," you can be more direct in pursuing your benefit.

5. Recognize Behavior Models: Teenager, Mouse, Tank, and Leader

If you’re right, act, and if you’re wrong, you simply haven’t put enough time into crafting your argument.

Four Models. When fighting for their goals, people tend to adopt one of four behavior models: the "Teenager" (low confidence, discourteous), the "Mouse" (low confidence, courteous), the "Tank" (high confidence, discourteous), and the "Leader" (high confidence, courteous).

Teenager. The "Teenager" is aggressive and insecure, often making things personal. Counter this by showing emotional strength and not mimicking their behavior.

Mouse. The "Mouse" is compliant and makes unnecessary concessions. Avoid taking everything from them; instead, offer a way out with dignity.

Tank. The "Tank" is confident but discourteous, focused solely on their own interests. Use the "two dogs" strategy if you are stronger, or respond with softness and a "breakthrough force" if you are weaker.

Leader. The "Leader" is confident and courteous, seeking to balance their interests with those of others. Engage with them rationally, avoiding emotional games.

6. Control the Negotiation Temperature: People, Positions, Options, and Time

It is crucial to separate the person from the issue being discussed.

Four Regulators. To control the emotional intensity of negotiations, use four key regulators: avoid making personal attacks, focus on the issue rather than inflexible positions, have a range of options, and manage the time frame of the discussion.

People. Separate the person from the issue. Avoid making personal attacks or value judgments. Focus on facts and objective data.

Positions. Avoid getting stuck on inflexible positions. Focus on the underlying interests and explore alternative solutions.

Options. Always have a range of options available. This will prevent you from getting locked into a single solution and allow for more flexibility.

Time. Be aware of how time is being used. Avoid getting bogged down in the past, focus on the present, and use the future to enrich your present.

7. Compromise vs. Concession: Understand Your Negotiation Budget

A compromise differs from a concession in that a compromise is a conscious decision.

Negotiation Budget. A negotiation budget includes time, energy, money, and emotion. These components have different weights, with emotion being the most significant.

Concessions. Concessions are made when the negotiation budget is maxed out, often due to emotional exhaustion. They are a sign of weakness and should be avoided.

Compromise. A compromise is a conscious decision made when you still have reserves in your negotiation budget. It involves making movements towards the other party while still achieving your interests.

8. Build a Polygon of Interests: Monetize and Prioritize Your Needs

Value is something your opponent is willing to pay you for.

Identify Interests. Create a "polygon of interests" by identifying all of your interests in a negotiation, both material and non-material. These interests will form the faces of your polygon.

Monetize Faces. Assign a monetary value to each face of your polygon, based on the currency of your key interest. This will help you to understand the true value of each aspect of the negotiation.

Desired Position. Determine your desired position, the value of your key interest that you would be fully satisfied with.

Red Line. Determine your red line, the minimum value of your key interest below which your needs will not be met.

Stated Position. Determine your stated position, the value of your key interest that marks the start of negotiations. It should be higher than your desired position.

9. Use Key Techniques: Eye Contact, Indifference, Saying No, Hosting, and Cause

If you’re right, act, and if you’re wrong, you simply haven’t put enough time into crafting your argument.

Eye Contact. Use eye contact to demonstrate emotional strength, but avoid staring, which can be seen as a challenge.

Indifference. Shield yourself from "need" and fear. Be prepared to walk away from a deal if it doesn't meet your needs.

Saying No. Learn to say "no" without damaging relationships. Be clear and direct, and don't give false hope.

Hosting. Fight for the role of "host" by asking questions and controlling the agenda.

Cause. Believe in your cause. If you don't believe in your position, you will be unable to defend it effectively.

10. Shift from Emotional to Rational: Dodge, Pause, and Respond

The angry man opens his mouth and shuts his eyes.

Emotional vs. Rational. Recognize when negotiations shift from a rational to an emotional mode. This is often a tactic used by manipulators and "tanks."

Dodge the Blow. When faced with an emotional attack, don't react immediately. Instead, dodge the blow by using a pause.

Pause. Use pauses to regain control of your emotions and the negotiation process. This can be done by taking a break, using a distraction, or asking a rhetorical question.

Respond. Once you have regained control, respond in a way that shifts the negotiations back to a rational mode.

11. Employ Influence Principles: Reciprocity, Consistency, Social Proof, Liking, Authority, and Scarcity

Leadership is about someone following someone else because they want to, not because they have to.

Reciprocity. People feel obligated to repay favors. Use this principle ethically by offering genuine value.

Consistency. People strive to be consistent in their words and actions. Encourage your opponent to make small commitments that align with your goals.

Social Proof. People are influenced by what others are doing. Use testimonials and social proof to build trust.

Liking. People are more likely to agree with those they like. Build rapport and find common ground.

Authority. People tend to obey authority figures. Use your expertise and credentials to establish credibility.

Scarcity. People value things that are scarce. Highlight the limited availability of your offer.

12. Build a Negotiation Roadmap: Strategy, Tactics, and Preparation

The victorious strategist only seeks battle after the victory has been won.

Strategy vs. Tactics. Strategy is the "what" (your overall goal), while tactics are the "how" (the specific actions you take).

Seven Key Questions. Before entering negotiations, answer these seven questions:

1. What do I have at the start of my journey?
2. Where do I want to get?
3. Is it realistic?
4. How will I progress towards this goal?
5. What will I be happy with?
6. What will I do if I get a ‘yes’?
7. What will I do if I get a ‘no’?

Preparation is Key. Thorough preparation is essential for success in negotiations. This includes gathering information, analyzing your position, and developing a clear roadmap.

Last updated: January 17, 2025