The Next Civil War

1. America's Fragile Union: A Nation Divided

The United States is coming to an end. The question is how.

Deep divisions. The United States is experiencing a profound fracturing, with political violence on the rise and national solidarity eroding. The country is increasingly divided along partisan lines, with a growing sense of "us vs. them" that threatens the very fabric of the nation. This division is not merely political; it's a cultural and social chasm that makes consensus and compromise increasingly difficult.

• Hyper-partisanship has led to a breakdown in trust in institutions.
• Political violence is becoming more normalized.
• The country is increasingly polarized into "red" and "blue" tribes.

Historical parallels. The current state of the U.S. is reminiscent of other countries that have descended into sectarian conflict. The author draws parallels to poor countries with histories of violence, highlighting the suddenness of the fall from stability. The American system, once a symbol of democracy, is now a case study in paralysis.

• The memory of 9/11, once a unifying force, has faded.
• The American system is showing signs of paralysis.
• Political violence is on the rise.

Global implications. The potential collapse of the United States has far-reaching global implications. The U.S. military might and economic power are unparalleled, and its fall would have devastating consequences for democracy and global security. The author emphasizes that no one will escape the consequences of an American collapse.

• The fall of the U.S. could lead to the fall of democracy as a leading political system.
• The peace and security of the global order are at risk.
• The consequences of an American collapse would be felt worldwide.

2. The Looming Threat of Stochastic Terrorism

It’s the fastest way to change history.

Lone-wolf violence. The U.S. is facing a growing threat of stochastic terrorism, where acts of violence are not the result of organized plots but rather the product of a climate of political hatred. The author emphasizes that the risk of a foreign government or terrorist organization killing the president is negligible compared to the threat of domestic, lone-wolf attacks.

• The internet and social media amplify violent rhetoric.
• The anonymity of the internet makes it difficult to track threats.
• The general climate of anger and recrimination condenses into murder.

The assassin's profile. The author paints a picture of the typical assassin as a young, alienated man, often with a history of personal failures and a sense of grievance. These individuals are drawn to online communities that reinforce their beliefs and provide a sense of belonging.

• They are often socially isolated and have a history of violent outbursts.
• They are drawn to conspiracy theories and alternative histories.
• They see themselves as historical figures, seeking redemption through violence.

Presidential assassination. The U.S. has a long history of presidential assassinations, making it a preferred form of political violence. The president is a living symbol of national unity, and their murder is seen as a way to change history. The author notes that the odds of a president being assassinated are one in eleven.

• The U.S. has a high rate of presidential assassinations compared to other countries.
• The president is a symbol of national unity, making them a target.
• Assassination is seen as a way to change history quickly.

3. Economic Inequality: A Catalyst for Collapse

Low levels of inequality are robustly protective of growth duration.

Extreme disparity. The U.S. is experiencing extreme levels of economic inequality, with the top 1% of families making 26.3 times what the 99% do. This disparity is not only unjust but also a major destabilizing force, making a market crash more likely and a recovery more difficult.

• The top 1% of families control a disproportionate share of the wealth.
• The poorest 50% of the population have seen a decline in their share of income.
• CEOs make 271 times the typical worker's pay.

Market instability. The author highlights the signs of an impending economic crash, including negative yields on sovereign bonds and record-high asset prices. The government's traditional tools for alleviating financial crises are no longer effective, leaving the country vulnerable to a major downturn.

• Long-term yields on government bonds have fallen below short-term yields.
• Many asset classes are approaching all-time-high prices.
• The Federal Reserve is "out of bullets" to address a potential crash.

Social consequences. Economic inequality erodes social cohesion and makes it harder to address crises. People who have been left behind by the system are less likely to support policies that require short-term pain for long-term gain. This lack of buy-in can lead to further instability and conflict.

• Inequality lessens social cohesion and trust.
• It creates a lack of buy-in for economic adjustments.
• It leads to disenfranchisement and lack of participation.

4. Climate Change: The Unfolding Environmental Crisis

What is now extreme will be normal in fifty years.

Precise models. Climate change models are remarkably accurate, predicting rising temperatures and sea levels with precision. The author emphasizes that the collapse will arrive sooner and more suddenly than anyone expects, but it won't come as a surprise.

• NASA's climate change modeling has been accurate to within one-twentieth of a degree.
• The models can predict which parts of a city will be rendered uninhabitable by a hurricane.
• The collapse will arrive sooner and more suddenly than anyone expects.

Agricultural vulnerability. Rising temperatures and droughts pose a significant threat to American agriculture, particularly commodity crops like corn, rice, and soybeans. The author notes that the heat can destroy the viability of pollen, leading to lower yields and food shortages.

• High temperatures can destroy the viability of pollen.
• Droughts are becoming more frequent and severe.
• The Ogallala Aquifer, a major source of irrigation, is shrinking.

Urban vulnerability. Cities, particularly those on the coasts, are highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, including sea level rise, heat waves, and urban flooding. The author highlights the precariousness of New York City, with its outdated infrastructure and low-lying areas.

• New York City is highly vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surges.
• Many cities have outdated sewer and storm systems.
• The cost of adaptation and mitigation is enormous.

5. The Inevitable Breakdown of Institutions

The US system is an archaic mode of government totally unsuited to the realities of the twenty-first century.

Erosion of trust. The author emphasizes that trust in American institutions is in free fall, with Congress, the presidency, and the Supreme Court all losing legitimacy. This lack of faith in institutions makes it increasingly difficult to address the country's challenges.

• Congress has approval ratings hovering around 10%.
• The judiciary is becoming increasingly dogmatic and partisan.
• Trust in government at all levels is in free fall.

Hyper-partisanship. The hyper-partisan environment has made it impossible for the government to function effectively. The author notes that Congress can't even agree to investigate violent extremists who attacked its own place of business.

• The collapsing system prevents reforms to the system itself.
• Political gamesmanship overrides all other governmental concerns.
• The government increasingly cannot respond to its people's will.

Archaic system. The U.S. system of government is an archaic mode of government totally unsuited to the realities of the twenty-first century. The author argues that the system needs reforms to its foundational systems, not just new faces.

• The U.S. system is an archaic mode of government.
• It is unsuited to the realities of the twenty-first century.
• It needs reforms to its foundational systems, not just new faces.

6. The Rise of Anti-Government Patriotism

They hate the government but they love the country.

Diverse movement. The author uses the term "anti-government patriot" to describe the hard right in the U.S., a diverse collection of groups united by their hatred of the government and their love for the country. This movement is much larger and more violent than most people believe.

• They believe the federal authority is destroying the true America.
• They range from small-government conservatives to outright criminals.
• They include tax protestors, sovereign citizens, and white nationalists.

Intellectual incoherence. The hard right lacks a coherent ideology, offering a buffet of sensibilities that individuals pick and choose from. This lack of coherence makes the movement difficult to understand but also more appealing to those who feel alienated and disenfranchised.

• They operate on a spectrum from the criminally insane to law enforcement officials.
• They offer a buffet of sensibilities rather than a coherent ideology.
• The lack of a coherent ideology means the knowledge is esoteric.

Growing threat. The anti-government patriot movement is a significant threat to the U.S., with a growing number of members and a willingness to use violence. The author notes that the vast majority of terrorism in the U.S. comes from the hard right.

• The number of terrorist incidents in the U.S. has tripled since 2013.
• Right-wing extremists perpetrated two-thirds of the attacks and plots in 2019.
• The FBI lists sovereign citizenry as its top domestic terrorist threat.

7. The Spectacle of Violence and Information Warfare

The force of virality is indistinguishable from divisiveness.

Anger-driven networks. The information networks of the U.S. have become polarization machines, driven by anger and outrage. The author notes that moral outrage is the strongest driver of traffic, leading to a cycle of dehumanization and division.

• Anger drives the information networks.
• The networks create meaning.
• The power of spectacle is driving American politics.

Celebrity sheriffs. The author highlights the rise of celebrity sheriffs who use their positions to defy the federal government and gain media attention. These figures become icons for the hard right, further dividing the country.

• They want to be celebrities.
• They put on angry shows.
• They use the internet to spread their message.

Narrative control. The next civil war will be a war over meaning, fought over the networks of information. The author emphasizes that the struggle is not just over territory but over the narrative, the story that people tell themselves about the country.

• The struggle is over a narrative.
• It begins in a county but is fought over the internet and television.
• The line between hard-right journalistic organizations and hard-right militias is blurry.

8. The Unfolding of a New American Civil War

The next civil war isn’t science fiction anymore.

Inciting incidents. The author emphasizes that the inciting incidents are works of imagination, but they are based on the best available models with established predictive capacities. The author uses the example of the bridge to show how a seemingly minor event can spark a major conflict.

• The inciting incidents are works of consciously thorough imagination.
• They are based on the best available models with established predictive capacities.
• A seemingly minor event can spark a major conflict.

Right-wing preparations. The author notes that American conservatives have been actively preparing for civil war since 2008, both intellectually and materially. They have been training themselves and gathering weapons, and they are increasingly open to violent rebellion against federal authority.

• They have been preparing intellectually by predicting civil war.
• They have been preparing materially by training themselves and gathering weapons.
• Openness to violent rebellion against federal authority is a mainstream position.

Military engagement. The author describes a hypothetical engagement between the U.S. military and anti-government patriots, highlighting the legal and tactical difficulties of such a conflict. The military is unprepared for the informational and narrative dimensions of war.

• The military is unprepared for the legal and tactical difficulties of a homeland conflict.
• The military is unprepared for the celebrity and its difficulties.
• The military is unable to control the narrative.

9. The Precariousness of Modern Life

The systems by which we go about our lives, and which we take for granted, are growing more threadbare.

Cheap food and safe cities. The author notes that we live in a period of cheap food and safe cities in an orderly world, but these conditions cannot last. The systems that we take for granted are growing more threadbare.

• The cheapness and the safety and the order cannot last.
• The systems by which we go about our lives are growing more threadbare.
• America's paralyzed government won't be able to respond with adequate measures.

Threat multipliers. The author identifies three principal threat multipliers facing the U.S.: economic inequality, drought, and property vulnerability. These factors are destabilizing forces that brew underneath the surface, feeding into the chaos and rage that explodes.

• Economic inequality makes a market crash more likely and a recovery more difficult.
• Droughts threaten agricultural systems and food supplies.
• Property vulnerability makes cities more susceptible to climate change.

Covid as a pretest. The author uses the COVID-19 pandemic as a pretest for the crises that are coming. The U.S. response to the pandemic was marked by political dysfunction and a lack of social solidarity, highlighting the country's vulnerability to future challenges.

• The U.S. had the highest death rate among developed countries.
• Political dysfunction was the obvious cause.
• The American response to Covid was unique.

10. The Enduring Power of Secession

No country is permanent. It will change. It will break apart in some way.

Growing support. The author notes that American tolerance for the idea of secession has been rapidly growing, with one in four Americans supporting the idea of their state peacefully withdrawing from the U.S. This growing support reflects a deep disillusionment with the current political system.

• One in four Americans support the idea of their state seceding.
• The idea of secession is no longer a fringe position.
• The country no longer makes sense.

Practical challenges. The author acknowledges that secession is not easy, highlighting the bureaucratic and logistical challenges of dividing a country. However, the author also notes that the legalities of secession are less important than the political will to separate.

• Secession is a bureaucratic nightmare.
• The legalities of secession are less important than the political will to separate.
• The international community would have to recognize any new state.

New identities. The author suggests that the U.S. might be better off as separate countries, acknowledging that the divisions have become intractable. The author notes that new identities and new loyalties are emerging, reflecting a growing sense of regionalism and tribalism.

• The U.S. might be better off as separate countries.
• New identities and new loyalties are emerging.
• The country no longer functions as a nation.

Last updated: February 3, 2025