The Next Decade

1. The U.S. is an Unintentional Empire Grappling with Global Management

The issue of whether the United States should be an empire is meaningless. It is an empire.

Accidental Hegemony. The United States finds itself in a position of global dominance not through deliberate conquest, but as a consequence of historical events, particularly the collapse of the Soviet Union. This "unintended empire" wields immense economic and military power, shaping the lives of people worldwide, whether it intends to or not. The sheer size of the American economy and the reach of its military make it impossible for the U.S. to avoid entanglement in global affairs.

Interdependence and Friction. This level of interdependence, with the U.S. at the center, creates both opportunities and dangers. While the U.S. benefits from its economic and military influence, it also faces resistance and resentment from nations seeking to protect their own interests. The challenge for American leaders is to manage this power responsibly, recognizing the risks and opportunities it presents.

Managing the Imperial Reality. The task for the U.S. in the coming decade is to move beyond ad hoc responses and develop a systematic approach to managing its global influence. This requires acknowledging the reality of American power, understanding its limits, and crafting a strategy that balances American interests with the needs and aspirations of other nations. The U.S. must transition from "undocumented disorder into an orderly system, a Pax Americana."

2. Machiavellian Leadership: Balancing Republic and Imperial Power

It is necessary for a prince who wishes to maintain his position to learn how not to be good, and to use this knowledge or not to use it according to necessity.

The Paradox of Power. The greatest challenge for the U.S. is how to preserve its republican values while wielding imperial power. The founders were wary of empire, fearing it would corrupt the republic. Yet, the U.S. now finds itself in a position where it cannot simply retreat from the world. The key lies in a new definition of virtue, one that emphasizes cunning, wisdom, and a willingness to act ruthlessly when necessary to protect the republic.

The Machiavellian President. The president must embody the paradox of the "Machiavellian presidency," reconciling duplicity and righteousness to redeem America's promise. This requires understanding the limits of both idealism and realism, recognizing that power without a moral core is dangerous, and ideals without power are simply words. The president must be a master of illusion, managing public sentiment while pursuing a ruthless, unsentimental foreign policy.

Lessons from Great Leaders. The author points to Abraham Lincoln, Franklin Roosevelt, and Ronald Reagan as examples of leaders who understood this balance. They were willing to lie, violate the law, and betray principles to achieve moral ends, such as preserving the Union, winning World War II, and undermining the Soviet Union. The president must focus not only on the accumulation and use of power but on its limits.

3. Financial Crises Expose the Interplay of State and Market

The modern free market is an invention of the state, and its rules are not naturally ordained but simply the outcome of political arrangements.

Cycles of Boom and Bust. Financial crises are a recurring feature of capitalism, driven by the accumulation of surplus money chasing assets, leading to irrational price increases and eventual collapse. The 2008 crisis, triggered by the housing bubble, was no exception. The government's response to these crises reveals the complex relationship between the state and the market.

State Intervention and Moral Hazard. The state often intervenes to mitigate the effects of financial crises, shifting the boundary between public and private control. This intervention can take different forms, such as Roosevelt's expansion of government power during the Great Depression or Reagan's deregulation in the 1980s. However, these interventions also create moral hazards, encouraging risky behavior by market participants who believe they will be bailed out.

Geopolitical and Political Consequences. The most significant effects of the 2008 crisis are geopolitical and political, not economic. The crisis highlighted the importance of national sovereignty, leading to increased economic nationalism. It also sparked a struggle between economic and political elites, with the state gaining power at the expense of the financial elite. The strengthening of the state will be a defining characteristic of the next decade globally.

4. Restoring Balance: A Multi-Theater Strategy

The strategic goal must be to prevent the emergence of any power that can challenge the United States in any given corner of the world.

Abandoning Long-Term Strategy. The U.S. response to 9/11, while understandable, led to a deviation from its long-term strategy of maintaining regional balances of power. The focus on counterterrorism, particularly in Afghanistan and Iraq, allowed other powers, such as Iran and Russia, to gain influence. The U.S. must now return to a more balanced approach, managing multiple regions simultaneously.

Regional Balances of Power. The U.S. must think of the world in terms of distinct regions and create regional balances of power, with coalition partners and contingency plans for intervention. This requires a more subtle exercise of power, including allying with enemies and manipulating regional players to check each other's ambitions. The U.S. must also break free of Cold War-era alliances and institutions, which are no longer suited to the complexities of today's world.

Three Principles for Imperial Strategy:

• Enable the balance of power in each region to consume energies and divert threats from the U.S.
• Create alliances in which other countries bear the major burden of confrontation, supported by U.S. economic and military aid.
• Use military intervention only as a last resort, when the balance of power breaks down.

5. Terrorism: A Threat to Manage, Not a Goal to Eliminate

The president can and should speak of foreseeing an era in which these threats don’t exist, but he must not believe his own rhetoric.

Terrorism as a Tactic. Terrorism is not an enemy but a type of warfare, a tactic employed by various actors to achieve political goals. By declaring a "war on terror," the U.S. elevated a specific tactic to a strategic level, leading to an unbalanced foreign policy. The goal should not be to eliminate terrorism, which is impossible, but to manage the threat and prevent it from undermining U.S. interests.

The Limits of Homeland Security. True homeland security is impossible, given the vastness of the U.S. and the ingenuity of terrorists. The president must acknowledge this reality, even while reassuring the public that everything is being done to protect them. The focus should be on proportionate responses and avoiding actions that have disproportionate costs relative to their effect.

Maintaining Perspective. The president must resist the temptation to try the impossible or undertake actions that have disproportionate costs relative to effect. He can lie to the public, but he must never lie to himself. Above all, he must understand the real threats to the country and act against those. The president must understand power, and that crushing the enemy quickly and thoroughly is kinder than either extending the war through scruples or losing the war through sentimentality.

6. Israel: A Complex Relationship Requiring Strategic Distance

The anti-imperial ethos of America’s founding continues to undergird the country’s political culture.

A Tangled History. The U.S.-Israeli relationship is one of the most complex and poorly understood in international politics. It is rooted in both national interest and moral considerations, but it also complicates U.S. relations with the Islamic world. The history of the region is incredibly convoluted, with competing claims and shifting alliances.

The Need for Recalibration. The U.S. must acknowledge that the strategic basis for its close relationship with Israel has diminished since the end of the Cold War. The U.S. no longer needs Israel to contain Soviet influence or to counter pro-Soviet regimes in the region. The U.S. must quietly distance itself from Israel, without endangering its existence, to reestablish a balance of power in the Middle East.

Managing the Illusion. The president must manage the public perception of the U.S.-Israeli relationship, continuing to express support for Israel while quietly pursuing a more balanced policy. This requires a nuanced approach, recognizing Israel's legitimate security concerns while also acknowledging the rights and aspirations of the Palestinians. The president must focus not only on the accumulation and use of power but on its limits.

7. Iran: From Foe to Pragmatic Partner

The president will have to pursue virtue as all of our great presidents have done: with suitable duplicity.

The Iranian Pivot. The collapse of Iraq has left Iran as the dominant power in the Persian Gulf, creating a major challenge for U.S. strategy. The U.S. must find a way to counterbalance Iran without maintaining a large military presence in the region. The most effective solution, however distasteful, is to seek an accommodation with Iran.

Shared Interests and Strategic Realities. Despite their animosity, the U.S. and Iran share some common interests, including combating Sunni extremism and maintaining the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. An accommodation with Iran would allow the U.S. to withdraw from Iraq, while also creating a more stable regional order. This would require a willingness to sup with the devil.

Managing the Fallout. A U.S.-Iranian entente would shock the region and the world, particularly Saudi Arabia and Israel. The president must manage the fallout by reassuring allies, providing security guarantees, and emphasizing the temporary nature of the alliance. The goal is to create a new balance of power in the Middle East, with Turkey emerging as a counterweight to Iran.

8. Russia's Resurgence Demands a New Eurasian Strategy

The greatest virtue a president can have is to understand power.

Russia's Comeback. The collapse of the Soviet Union did not eliminate Russia as a major player. Under Putin, Russia has reasserted its power, particularly in its near abroad. The U.S. must now develop a strategy to manage Russia's resurgence and prevent it from dominating Eurasia.

Blocking a Russo-German Entente. The greatest threat to U.S. interests is a Russo-German alliance, which would create a power bloc capable of challenging American hegemony. The U.S. must do everything it can to prevent this from happening, including strengthening its relationship with Poland and other countries in Eastern Europe. The president must focus not only on the accumulation and use of power but on its limits.

A Multi-Faceted Approach. The U.S. strategy toward Russia must be multi-faceted, combining containment with engagement. The U.S. must maintain a strong military presence in Europe, while also seeking areas of cooperation with Russia, such as counterterrorism and arms control. The goal is to manage Russia's power, not to destroy it.

9. Europe's Shifting Landscape: Germany's Role and U.S. Influence

The president will have to pursue virtue as all of our great presidents have done: with suitable duplicity.

The End of the Postwar Order. The European Union, once envisioned as a supernation, is now facing internal challenges and centrifugal forces. The financial crisis exposed the EU's structural weaknesses, leading to increased economic nationalism and a reassertion of national sovereignty. The U.S. must adapt to this new reality, recognizing that the EU is no longer the unified entity it once seemed to be.

Germany's Pivotal Position. Germany remains the economic engine of Europe, but its relationship with the U.S. is shifting. Germany is increasingly drawn to Russia for energy and economic opportunities, while also seeking to distance itself from U.S. foreign policy. The U.S. must find a way to manage this dynamic, preventing Germany from aligning too closely with Russia.

A Balancing Act. The U.S. must pursue a strategy of divide and conquer, cultivating relationships with countries on the periphery of Europe, such as Poland and Turkey, to counterbalance the power of Germany and Russia. The goal is to maintain a balance of power on the continent, preventing any single power or coalition from dominating. The president must focus not only on the accumulation and use of power but on its limits.

10. The Western Pacific: Delay, Deflect, and Prepare

The strategic goal must be to prevent the emergence of any power that can challenge the United States in any given corner of the world.

A Region of Latent Tensions. The Western Pacific, while relatively tranquil today, is a region of long-standing tensions, particularly between China and Japan. The U.S. must prepare for future crises by maintaining a strong military presence and cultivating alliances with key regional players. The president will have to pursue virtue as all of our great presidents have done: with suitable duplicity.

Managing the Sino-Japanese Dynamic. The U.S. must carefully manage its relationships with both China and Japan, preventing either from becoming too dominant. This requires a nuanced approach, recognizing the economic and strategic interests of each country. The president must focus not only on the accumulation and use of power but on its limits.

Key Alliances. The U.S. should cement strong relations with three key players: Korea, Australia, and Singapore. These countries would prove essential allies in the event of war with any western Pacific country, and preparations cannot begin too soon. The president will have to pursue virtue as all of our great presidents have done: with suitable duplicity.

11. A Secure Hemisphere: Managing Mexico and Containing Brazil

The president will have to pursue virtue as all of our great presidents have done: with suitable duplicity.

Limited Strategic Importance. With few exceptions, what happens in Latin America is of marginal importance to the United States. The region's fragmentation and geographic barriers have prevented the rise of a transcontinental power. The president will have to pursue virtue as all of our great presidents have done: with suitable duplicity.

Mexico: A Special Case. Mexico, due to its shared border, presents unique challenges and opportunities for the U.S. The U.S. must manage the flow of illegal immigrants and drugs, while also maintaining a strong economic relationship. The president will have to pursue virtue as all of our great presidents have done: with suitable duplicity.

Brazil: A Potential Challenger. Brazil is the only Latin American country with the potential to emerge as a competitor to the United States. The U.S. must begin working now to create a countervailing power, such as Argentina, to maintain a balance of power in the region. The president will have to pursue virtue as all of our great presidents have done: with suitable duplicity.

12. Africa: A Continent Best Left to Evolve on Its Own

The president will have to pursue virtue as all of our great presidents have done: with suitable duplicity.

A Region Without States. Africa, unlike other regions, lacks strong nation-states capable of asserting themselves. The continent is divided by artificial borders and internal conflicts, making it difficult for any single power to emerge. The president will have to pursue virtue as all of our great presidents have done: with suitable duplicity.

Limited U.S. Interests. The U.S. has limited strategic interests in Africa, primarily focused on securing oil supplies and combating Islamist influence. The U.S. should avoid large-scale interventions and allow the continent to evolve on its own. The president will have to pursue virtue as all of our great presidents have done: with suitable duplicity.

A Hands-Off Approach. The best approach for the U.S. is to remain aloof, allowing Africa to sort itself out through its own internal conflicts. The U.S. should focus on maintaining access to resources and preventing the emergence of any hostile powers. The president will have to pursue virtue as all of our great presidents have done: with suitable duplicity.

Last updated: February 23, 2025