The Room Where It Happened

1. The "Axis of Adults" Hindered Effective Governance

They didn’t do nearly enough to establish order, and what they did do was so transparently self-serving and so publicly dismissive of many of Trump’s very clear goals (whether worthy or unworthy) that they fed Trump’s already-suspicious mind-set, making it harder for those who came later to have legitimate policy exchanges with the President.

Conventional wisdom challenged. The popular narrative of Trump's early administration being stabilized by an "axis of adults" is misleading. This group, intended to restrain Trump, instead exacerbated problems by failing to establish order and openly disregarding his objectives. This fostered distrust and made policy discussions more difficult for subsequent advisors.

Self-serving actions. The "axis of adults" prioritized their own reputations and agendas over effectively implementing the President's policies. This created a dysfunctional environment where legitimate policy exchanges were hampered by suspicion and a lack of clear direction.

Impact on governance. The failure to establish clear processes and respect the President's goals, regardless of their merit, led to a chaotic and reactive administration. This ultimately undermined the ability of the government to function effectively and address critical national security challenges.

2. Transitions Reveal an Administration's True Nature

How they unfold reveals much about the Administration to come.

Transitions as predictors. The presidential transition period offers a glimpse into the operational style and priorities of the incoming administration. A well-organized transition indicates a clear vision and a commitment to effective governance, while a chaotic transition suggests potential disarray and internal conflicts.

Nixon and Reagan vs. Trump. The Nixon and Reagan transitions serve as examples of structured and ideologically driven approaches, respectively. In contrast, Trump's transition was marked by disorganization, turf wars, and a lack of understanding of the federal government's complexities.

Trump's transition failures. The Trump transition's shortcomings, including personnel struggles and a lack of preparation, foreshadowed the challenges and unconventional decision-making that would characterize his presidency. This period highlighted Trump's reliance on instinct and personal relationships over established processes and expertise.

3. Loyalty Trumps All in Trump's Personnel Decisions

Loyalty was the key factor, which Giuliani had proved beyond peradventure in the days after the Access Hollywood tape became public in early October.

Giuliani's example. Trump valued loyalty above all else, often prioritizing it over qualifications and experience. Rudy Giuliani's unwavering support in the face of the Access Hollywood tape controversy solidified his position as a key ally and demonstrated the kind of loyalty Trump sought.

Central casting vs. competence. Trump's personnel selection process often seemed driven by a desire for individuals who fit a certain image or demonstrated unwavering loyalty, rather than those with the most relevant skills and expertise. This led to a cabinet of individuals with diverse backgrounds but a shared commitment to Trump's agenda.

The Johnson analogy. The author draws a parallel to Lyndon Johnson's demand for absolute loyalty, highlighting Trump's desire for advisors who would prioritize his interests above all else. This emphasis on personal loyalty often overshadowed the need for competence and independent judgment.

4. Trump's Transition Disorder Reflected His Decision-Making Style

The transition’s spreading disorder increasingly reflected not just organizational failures but Trump’s essential decision-making style.

Krauthammer's assessment. Observers noted that Trump's decision-making process was often impulsive and self-centered, resembling that of a young child. This approach prioritized personal benefit over strategic planning and institutional knowledge.

Personnel selection as a reflection. The chaotic personnel selection process during the transition mirrored Trump's broader decision-making style. The best way to secure a position was to be the "last man standing," rather than demonstrating competence or a clear vision for the role.

Consequences for governance. This erratic decision-making style led to a lack of preparation, internal coordination, and consistent policy implementation. The administration struggled to establish effective processes and often stumbled through critical issues.

5. The National Security Advisor Must Control the Bureaucracy

My goal was not to get a membership card but to get a driver’s license.

Bolton's approach. The author believed the National Security Advisor's primary role was to ensure the President understood available options and that decisions were effectively implemented. This required a deep understanding of the bureaucracy and the ability to navigate its complexities.

The "axis of adults" failure. The "axis of adults" failed to establish control over the bureaucracy, allowing it to operate independently and often in opposition to the President's goals. This undermined the administration's ability to execute its policies effectively.

The need for a "cultural revolution." The author recognized the need for a fundamental shift in the State Department's culture, which often prioritized its own agenda over the President's. This required appointing individuals who would advance the administration's policies and challenging the existing bureaucratic norms.

6. The Syria Strike: A Bureaucratic Battleground

Military force was justified to deter Assad and many others from using chemical (or nuclear or biological) weapons in the future.

Mattis's obstruction. The decision-making process surrounding the Syria strike was marred by bureaucratic infighting, particularly from Defense Secretary Jim Mattis. Mattis strategically limited options and withheld information to steer the President toward his preferred course of action.

The importance of deterrence. The author believed the primary objective of the Syria strike should have been to reestablish deterrence against the use of chemical weapons. This required a strong and decisive response that went beyond simply targeting chemical weapons facilities.

A missed opportunity. The ultimate decision to pursue a limited strike, influenced by Mattis's obstruction, failed to achieve the desired level of deterrence. This virtually guaranteed that Assad would continue to use chemical weapons in the future.

7. Breaking Free: The Iran Nuclear Deal Exit

Trump and other 2016 GOP candidates campaigned against the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the lumbering formal title of the Iran deal, and it was widely believed to be ready for extreme unction following his inauguration.

The Iran deal as a campaign promise. Trump campaigned against the Iran nuclear deal, promising to withdraw from what he considered a flawed agreement. However, efforts to break free from the deal were frustrated by advisors who favored maintaining the status quo.

The "axis of adults" and the Iran deal. Tillerson, Mattis, and McMaster were seen as an "axis of adults" restraining Trump from acting on his campaign promises. This earned them praise from the media but frustrated Trump's supporters, who wanted him to fulfill his commitments.

Bolton's strategy for withdrawal. The author saw the Iran deal as a strategic disaster and advocated for a swift and decisive withdrawal. He worked to prepare an exit strategy and ensure that Trump had the option ready when he decided to act.

8. The Singapore Summit: A Propaganda Gift

For a US President to grant Kim a summit with no sign whatever of a strategic decision to renounce nuclear weapons—in fact, giving it away for nothing—was a propaganda gift beyond measure.

A summit for nothing. The author viewed the Singapore summit between Trump and Kim Jong Un as a major mistake. He believed it legitimized Kim without securing any concrete commitments to denuclearization.

South Korea's agenda. The summit was largely driven by South Korea's desire for improved inter-Korean relations, rather than a serious strategy to address North Korea's nuclear program. This risked creating a wedge between the US and its allies.

The propaganda victory. The summit provided Kim with a significant propaganda victory, allowing him to portray himself as a legitimate world leader without making any meaningful concessions on denuclearization. This undermined the US's efforts to exert pressure on North Korea.

9. The Perils of a "Process" Without Presidential Clarity

I was determined to have a disciplined, thorough process, but I would judge my performance on how it actually shaped policy, not how outsiders compared it to prior Administrations.

Process vs. policy. The author prioritized shaping policy outcomes over simply adhering to a disciplined process. He recognized that a well-structured process was meaningless if it didn't translate into effective action.

Trump's decision-making style. Trump's unconventional and erratic decision-making style often frustrated efforts to have coherent policy discussions. His tendency to jump from one issue to another and his lack of clarity made it difficult to achieve meaningful progress.

The need for presidential leadership. Ultimately, effective policy-making required clear direction from the President. Without it, bureaucratic infighting and competing agendas could undermine the administration's ability to achieve its goals.

10. The World According to Trump: A Chaotic Symphony

You can check out any time you like / But you can never leave.

The "Hotel California" presidency. Life in the Trump Administration often resembled the Eagles song "Hotel California," where individuals found it difficult to leave, even when they wanted to. This reflected the President's tendency to draw people back in and the constant state of flux within the White House.

Mismatches and mismatches. The Trump Administration was plagued by mismatches between the President, his advisors, and the bureaucracies they led. This created a chaotic environment where policies were often inconsistent and difficult to implement.

The importance of perseverance. Despite the challenges and frustrations, the author remained committed to serving the country and advancing his policy goals. He recognized the risks of working in the Trump Administration but believed he could make a difference.

Last updated: March 28, 2025