The Shia Revival

1. The Shia-Sunni Conflict is a Struggle for Islam's Soul and a Modern Clash of Identities

The Shia-Sunni conflict is at once a struggle for the soul of Islam—a great war of competing theologies and conceptions of sacred history—and a manifestation of the kind of tribal wars of ethnicities and identities, so seemingly archaic at times, yet so surprisingly vital, with which humanity has become wearily familiar.

Dual Nature of the Conflict. The Shia-Sunni divide is not merely a theological dispute but also a contemporary clash of identities fueled by power, subjugation, freedom, and equality. It's a complex interplay of faith and identity, making it both an ancient and modern conflict. The conflict is deeply embedded in popular prejudice, with stereotypes defining how many Sunnis view their Shia kinsmen.

Historical and Theological Roots. The conflict traces back to the succession crisis after Prophet Muhammad's death in 632 C.E., with Shias believing Ali ibn Abi Talib was the rightful successor, while Sunnis favored Abu Bakr. This disagreement evolved into differing interpretations of Islamic history, theology, and law. The Shia-Sunni conflict is a struggle for the soul of Islam, a great war of competing theologies and conceptions of sacred history.

Contemporary Manifestations. The conflict manifests in regional conflicts, foreign intrigues, and concerns with power, subjugation, freedom, and equality. It's a contemporary clash of identities, fueled by theological and historical disagreements, as well as today's concerns. The conflict is not just a hoary religious dispute but a contemporary clash of identities.

2. Shiism's Distinct Identity is Rooted in the Karbala Narrative and Veneration of the Imams

For the Shia, Karbala is an emblem of suffering and solace but also connotes the refusal of true Muslim authority to be caged by pragmatic considerations and its willingness to challenge illegitimate authority—not only that of the caliphs but that of any ruler who does not measure up.

Karbala as a Defining Event. The martyrdom of Imam Husayn at Karbala in 680 C.E. is central to Shia identity, symbolizing resistance against tyranny and the triumph of moral principles over brute force. Ashoura, the commemoration of Husayn's death, is a distinctly Shia practice, underscoring Shia distinctiveness and often drawing Sunni opprobrium. The bloody murder of the Prophet’s grandson served to galvanize the Shia faith.

Veneration of the Imams. Shias believe that the descendants of Ali, known as the imams, possess special spiritual qualities and are divinely favored. They serve as intermediaries between man and God, renewing and strengthening the bond between them. Shias revere not only the holy group represented by the symbol of the carved hand but also the “Fourteen Immaculate from Sin” (chahardah ma’sum), which means Muhammad, his daughter Fatima, and the twelve imams.

Visual Imagery and Rituals. Shia piety is steeped in visual representation, with portraits of Ali and Husayn adorning homes and shops. Ashoura, with its lamentation, self-flagellation, and passion plays, is a powerful expression of Shia faith and identity. The rituals associated with Ashoura repeat themselves throughout the Shia calendar.

3. Shiism's Political Trajectory: From Dissent to the Safavid Dynasty and the Doctrine of Occultation

After the line of imams ended in 939 C.E., with the occultation of the Twelfth Imam, the Shia mood turned consolidationist.

Early Dissent and the Rise of Shiism. Shiism arose from dissent against the Umayyad caliphate, with followers of Ali arguing that the rightful leaders of Islam should come from the Prophet's family. After Ali’s death, the caliphate became the possession of dynasties—first the Umayyads and later the Abbasids. The Shia rejected the authority of the caliphs in Damascus and Baghdad and continued to argue that the rightful leaders of Islam could come only from the marriage between Ali and Fatima, Muhammad’s daughter.

The Safavid Dynasty and the Shia State. The Safavid dynasty in Iran (1501-1736) marked a turning point, establishing Shiism as the state religion and creating a safe haven for Shia learning and culture. The Safavids were not content to rule over a domain that would remain Sunni. They had a genuine zeal for Shiism and wanted to bring Iran into the ambit of that faith.

The Doctrine of Occultation. The occultation of the Twelfth Imam in 939 C.E. led to a shift in Shia thought, with theologians arguing that true Islamic rule could not exist until his return. This led to a period of passive resistance and the development of Shia jurisprudence. Passive resistance replaced active rebellion. Shias would not recognize the legitimacy of Sunni rule, but they would not directly challenge it either.

4. Modernization's Impact: Secularism, Nationalism, and the Rise of the Ulama in Shia Politics

Middle-and upper-class Shias tended to be educated in secular schools either in the West or at home in institutions built by European missionaries...

Secularization and the Shia Elite. Modernization led to secularization among some Shias, with many embracing Western education and lifestyles. Some became secular in lifestyle as well, or embraced Sunnism for the sake of easier upward mobility. Others became enamored of Sunni fundamentalism, which was gaining adherents and both political and religious stature.

The Rise of Nationalism. Shias embraced secular nationalism as an inclusive identity, defining them as equals to Sunnis in the eyes of the nation. However, secular regimes often failed to deliver on their promise of equality, entrenching Sunni dominance and marginalizing the Shia. For the Shia, especially where they were a minority, secular nationalism was an inclusive identity.

The Ulama's Ascendancy. Despite secularizing trends, the ulama (religious scholars) gained prominence in Shia politics, filling the void left by landlords and tribal leaders. Clerics such as Musa al-Sadr and Khomeini used social mobilization and ideological tools to compete with leftist movements. The ulama became involved in social mobilization and used many of the ideological and political tools of the left even as they were competing with it for support among the youth.

5. The Fading Promise of Nationalism: Sunni Hegemony and the Entrenchment of Sectarian Divisions

The governments that followed Ottoman rule or European colonialism began as pan-national but were filiations of the same power structure that long had supported Sunni supremacy.

Sunni Bias in Nationalist Movements. Arab nationalism, while nominally secular, often perpetuated Sunni dominance, with Sunni elites maintaining control of governments and institutions. The same Sunni elites—landowners, tribal elders, top soldiers, and senior bureaucrats—often ran the day-to-day show both before and after independence.

Discrimination and Marginalization. Shias faced institutionalized discrimination, persecution, and prejudice in many Arab states, despite their contributions to nationalist causes. The modern states grew increasingly authoritarian and showed a penchant for using Sunni sectarian prejudices to shore up their own authority.

The Pakistani Experience. In Pakistan, the initial promise of an inclusive Muslim nationalism faded as the country became increasingly Sunni in its self-perception. The coup of 1977 ended the Pakistani experiment with inclusive Muslim nationalism. Shia politicians, generals, and business leaders remained on the scene, but a steadily “Islamizing” (read “Sunnifying”) Pakistan came to look more and more like the Arab world, with Sunnis on top and Shias gradually pushed out.

6. Khomeini's Revolution: A Shia Challenge to Sunni Dominance and the Rise of Islamic Fundamentalism

Khomeini used the emotional power of Shia lore and imagery not only to help him seize control of Iran but to lay claim to Shiism’s very soul.

Khomeini's Vision. Ayatollah Khomeini's revolution in Iran presented a new model for Shia government, challenging Sunni dominance and promoting Islamic fundamentalism. Khomeini had a clear sense of destiny—his own, Shiism’s, and Iran’s. His politics and religious views reflected not so much Shia history and theology as the authority that he claimed by virtue of his understanding of mystical doctrines.

The Doctrine of Velayat-e Faqih. Khomeini's theory of "guardianship of the Islamic jurist" (velayat-e faqih) called for the ulama to rule, arguing that they were best equipped to implement God's commands. With this theory of “guardianship of the jurist” (velayat-e faqih), Shiism would look to its ulama as a class—and among them the most respected cleric—rather than its shahs to rule and protect its interests and identity.

Shia Marxism and the Cult of Martyrdom. Khomeini's movement drew on Shia Marxism, with figures like Ali Shariati framing Shiism as a creed of revolution and social justice. The revolution also fostered a cult of martyrdom, encouraging sacrifice for the faith. The Iranian revolution drew on the power of that framework, but it was not unique in that regard.

7. The Sunni Backlash: Wahhabism, Extremism, and the Containment of Shia Influence

By the mid-1990s Iranian financial support for Shia activism had dried up.

Sunni Opposition to Khomeini. Khomeini's challenge to Saudi Arabia and his Shia identity sparked a Sunni backlash, with Wahhabi ulama and Saudi Arabia actively working to contain Iranian influence. The Saudi rulers, conversely, were routinely painted as Sunnism’s greatest defenders and the symbols of its resistance to Shia attempts at “usurpation"

The Rise of Sunni Extremism. Saudi Arabia supported Sunni extremist groups and madrasahs (religious schools) to counter Shia influence, leading to sectarian violence in Pakistan and Afghanistan. The Taliban in Afghanistan and jihadi fighters in Kashmir both have their origins in the anticolonialist strains of Sunnism that developed in India under the British, and in response to a brief period of Shia ascendancy there.

The Wahhabi-Salafi Influence. Wahhabism and Salafism, with their puritanical interpretations of Islam, played a significant role in fueling anti-Shia sentiment and violence. The growing importance of fundamentalism over the years has “Sunnified” the political climate in the Arab world and Pakistan. As national states have faltered in their missions, their vision of secular Arab or Pakistani nationalism has been not a new conception of society and politics but simply a “Sunnification” of that conception.

8. Iraq: The Epicenter of Shia Revival and the Battle for the Middle East

In March 2003, the United States not only changed the regime in Iraq but also challenged the regime—call it “the Sunni ascendancy”—that had long dominated the region as a whole.

The Fall of Saddam and the Shia Ascendancy. The U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 marked the end of Sunni rule and the beginning of a Shia revival, with Shias gaining political power and influence. The most important outcome of war in Iraq has been that one of the three most important Arab-majority countries officially became the first state in the Arab world to be ruled by a democratically empowered Shia majority.

Ayatollah Sistani's Leadership. Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani emerged as the leader of Iraq's Shias, advocating for democracy and majority rule while urging restraint and avoiding sectarian conflict. Sistani’s moderate and levelheaded style would set the tone for the Shia ascendancy in Iraq—and in the region.

Sectarian Violence and the Future of Iraq. Despite Shia gains, sectarian violence and Sunni resistance threatened to destabilize Iraq, raising questions about the country's future and the potential for civil war. The growing intensity of sectarian conflict in Iraq is corroding these bonds.

9. Iran's Ascendance: A Regional Powerhouse and the Protector of Shia Interests

The Shia revival is inevitably intertwined with the rise of Iran.

Iran's Regional Influence. Iran, as the largest Shia country, has benefited from the Shia revival, expanding its regional influence and strengthening ties with Shia communities across the Middle East. With almost 70 million people, 90 percent of whom are Shia, Iran is the largest Shia country.

Cultural and Economic Ties. The opening of Iraq has fostered cultural and economic ties between Iran and Iraq, with Iranian pilgrims and businesses playing a growing role in Shia holy cities. The hundreds of thousands of Iranian pilgrims who travel to Iraq along the highway from Mehran to Najaf are also a conduit for ideas, investments, and broader social and economic ties.

The Nuclear Ambition. Iran's nuclear ambition is seen as a means to protect its regional interests and ensure its security in the face of Sunni opposition. An Iranian nuclear capability would have helped Iran to contain the Sunni pressure and even reverse the balance of power to its own advantage.

Last updated: March 2, 2025