The Twilight Struggle

1. Cold War as a Twilight Struggle: Lessons for Modern Great-Power Competition

"Today, America is facing new twilight struggles—high-stakes, long-term competitions against China and Russia."

Relevance to modern rivalry. The Cold War offers critical insights for today's great-power competition with China and Russia. While not exact replicas, these new rivalries share key characteristics:

• Blend of geopolitical and ideological conflict
• High stakes for world order and freedom
• Occur in the ambiguous space between peace and war

Key lessons:

• Importance of long-term strategic thinking
• Value of building and maintaining alliances
• Need for a whole-of-government approach
• Balancing confrontation with cooperation
• Leveraging asymmetric advantages

Cautionary note: While learning from the Cold War is crucial, policymakers must adapt strategies to the unique challenges of the 21st century, avoiding the trap of fighting the last war.

2. Forging a Long-Term Strategy: Containment and Its Evolution

"Containment was primarily a defensive strategy, but it had an offensive component, meant to weaken the Soviet Union, fragment its alliances, and hasten the end of the Cold War."

Containment's core principles:

• Prevent Soviet expansion
• Build up free world strength
• Exploit internal contradictions of Soviet system

Evolution over time:

• Initial focus on Europe and economic reconstruction
• Expansion to global containment and militarization
• Incorporation of arms control and détente
• Reagan's strategy of pressure and negotiation

Flexibility and persistence. Containment's success stemmed from its ability to adapt to changing circumstances while maintaining core objectives. It provided a coherent framework for multiple administrations, allowing for tactical shifts within a consistent grand strategy.

3. Building Situations of Strength: The Free World Project

"By liberating the free world from the anarchy of global politics, America and its allies seized command of a cut-throat Cold War."

Transforming allies and partners:

• Economic reconstruction (Marshall Plan, aid to Japan)
• Security guarantees (NATO, bilateral alliances)
• Promotion of democracy and open markets

Benefits of the free world strategy:

• Created a unified bloc to resist Soviet pressure
• Demonstrated superiority of capitalist democracy
• Provided strategic depth and resources for competition

Long-term vision. The free world project required significant short-term costs and compromises but yielded tremendous long-term strategic advantages. It transformed potential rivals into partners and created a global system that outlasted the Cold War itself.

4. Navigating the Nuclear Shadow: Military Competition and Strategic Stability

"The Cold War was not just an arms race. It was a test of American minds as well as American weapons."

Balancing deterrence and stability:

• Maintaining credible nuclear threat while avoiding war
• Developing flexible response options
• Pursuing arms control to manage risks

Technological innovation:

• Leveraging U.S. strengths in R&D
• Developing asymmetric advantages (e.g., stealth, precision)
• Forcing Soviets into costly counter-investments

Psychological dimension. The nuclear competition was as much about perceptions as reality. U.S. strategy aimed to shape Soviet calculations, demonstrating resolve while avoiding reckless provocation.

5. Contesting the Periphery: Successes and Failures in the Third World

"America had been drawn, irreversibly, onto shaky competitive ground."

Challenges in the Third World:

• Decolonization and rising nationalism
• Ideological appeal of communism
• Soviet and Chinese support for revolutionary movements

U.S. approaches:

• Economic aid and development programs
• Support for anticommunist regimes
• Covert operations and interventions

Mixed results. While the U.S. prevented Soviet dominance in key regions, its policies often backfired, supporting repressive regimes and fueling anti-Americanism. The Vietnam War, in particular, demonstrated the perils of overcommitment in peripheral areas.

6. Taking the Fight to the Enemy: Political Warfare and Subversion

"Political warfare is as old as competition itself."

Tools of political warfare:

• Propaganda and information operations
• Support for dissident groups
• Economic pressure and sanctions
• Covert action

Key targets:

• Eastern European satellites
• Soviet internal weaknesses
• Sino-Soviet split

Evolution of approach. U.S. political warfare evolved from aggressive rollback attempts to more subtle efforts at undermining Soviet legitimacy and exploiting internal contradictions. The long-term nature of these efforts eventually paid dividends as the Soviet system weakened.

7. Setting Limits: Managing Competition through Diplomacy

"The key to winding down the long, bitter struggle was showing enough magnanimity to make a ruthless policy effective."

Balancing confrontation and cooperation:

• Arms control negotiations
• Crisis management mechanisms
• People-to-people exchanges

Challenges of engagement:

• Avoiding appearance of weakness
• Maintaining allied support
• Verifying compliance

Strategic patience. Successful diplomacy required a long-term perspective, recognizing that small steps could accumulate into significant changes over time. It also demanded careful calibration to avoid undermining competitive advantages.

8. Organizing for Victory: Bureaucratic Innovations for Long-Term Rivalry

"Creating a government equipped for competition required building an entire bureaucratic ecosystem."

Key institutional developments:

• National Security Council
• Central Intelligence Agency
• Department of Defense

Adapting government for competition:

• Interagency coordination
• Long-term strategic planning
• Developing specialized expertise

Balancing efficiency and democratic values. The challenge was to create a more capable national security state without undermining America's democratic character or falling into the trap of becoming a garrison state.

9. Winning the Contest of Systems: Leveraging American Democracy

"The Cold War was a contest of systems as much as a contest of strategies: it would test the attractiveness and efficacy of the American way."

Strengths of the American system:

• Economic dynamism and innovation
• Cultural appeal and soft power
• Ability to self-correct and adapt

Challenges to overcome:

• McCarthyism and civil liberties concerns
• Racial discrimination and social inequalities
• Balancing security needs with open society

Demonstrating superiority. The Cold War pushed America to live up to its ideals, driving progress in civil rights, scientific research, and economic development. These improvements strengthened the U.S. position in the global competition.

10. Managing the Endgame: Ending the Cold War on U.S. Terms

"The key to waging the Cold War was building situations of strength that made Soviet victory impossible and Western victory achievable. The key to winding down the long, bitter struggle was showing enough magnanimity to make a ruthless policy effective."

Reagan's strategy:

• Military buildup and technological pressure
• Support for anti-Soviet movements
• Engagement with reformist Soviet leadership

Bush's management of Soviet collapse:

• Careful support for Gorbachev's reforms
• Rapid diplomatic moves to lock in gains
• Balancing change with stability

Lessons for ending rivalries:

• Importance of negotiating from strength
• Need for face-saving measures for adversary
• Value of locking in gains through institutions and agreements

Last updated: November 22, 2024