Yemen

1. Yemen's History: A Cycle of Unwanted Foreign Influence and Tribal Resistance

‘Ruling Yemen is like dancing on the heads of snakes’

Enduring Resistance. Yemen's history is marked by a consistent pattern of resistance against foreign powers, from the Ottoman Turks to the British, and even fellow Muslims. This resistance stems from a deep-seated tribal structure and a fierce desire for independence, particularly among the Zaydi highlanders.

Failed Impositions. Outside powers have repeatedly attempted to impose their systems and values on Yemen, whether through Ottoman and British imperialism, Nasserite Arab nationalism, or Soviet-style Marxism. These attempts have consistently failed to take root, highlighting the resilience of Yemen's tribal structures and values.

• The Ottomans, despite their military might, were eventually expelled by the Zaydi tribes.
• The British, while establishing a presence in Aden, struggled to control the tribal hinterland.
• Nasser's pan-Arabism and Soviet-style Marxism failed to unite the country.

Geographic Determinism. Yemen's rugged terrain, particularly the mountainous northern highlands, has played a crucial role in shaping its history. The inhospitable landscape has provided a natural refuge for tribes seeking to resist outside control, making it difficult for any power to establish complete dominance.

2. The Fragile Nature of Yemeni Unity: A Legacy of Division

Yemenis’ pronounced sense of regional identity easily trumps their consciousness of belonging to a modern nation state.

Regional Identities. Despite a shared history and culture, Yemenis often identify more strongly with their regional and tribal affiliations than with a unified national identity. This regionalism is fueled by differences in accent, dress, history, geography, and economic opportunities.

• The Tihama coastal region has a way of life resembling East Africa.
• The northern highlands are home to fiercely independent Zaydi tribes.
• Hadhramaut, in the east, has a distinct history and culture shaped by trade and migration.

Failed Unifications. Attempts to unite Yemen have been fraught with challenges, including the over-hasty merger of the YAR and PDRY in 1990, which led to a civil war in 1994. These failed attempts highlight the deep-seated divisions and the difficulty of forging a cohesive national identity.

• The 1990 merger was described as a "shotgun wedding" due to its rushed nature.
• The 1994 civil war exposed the deep-seated tensions between the north and south.

Polarizing Forces. The ubiquity of qat and the country's growing road network have only begun to counteract the powerful polarizing forces of regional identity. These forces continue to undermine efforts to build a strong and unified nation-state.

3. The Rise of Jihadism: A Complex Mix of Local and Global Factors

‘More tea?’ The man politely refilling my cup is Nasir al-Bahri, Osama bin Laden’s former chief bodyguard...

Local Grievances. The rise of jihadism in Yemen is not solely a product of global events but is also rooted in local grievances, including poverty, unemployment, and a lack of opportunity. These conditions make young Yemenis vulnerable to radical ideologies.

• High unemployment rates, especially among young men, create a sense of desperation.
• Low literacy rates and limited access to education contribute to the spread of extremist ideas.
• The cultivation of qat, while economically important, diverts resources from food production and other essential sectors.

Global Influences. The anti-Soviet jihad in Afghanistan played a crucial role in the emergence of a first generation of Yemeni jihadists, including figures like Tariq al-Fadhli. The US invasion of Iraq and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict have further fueled anti-Western sentiment and provided a rallying cry for radical groups.

• The Afghan war provided training and experience for many Yemeni fighters.
• The US's support for Israel and its actions in Iraq have been used as recruiting tools.

Complex Motivations. The motivations of Yemeni jihadists are complex and varied, ranging from religious zeal to economic desperation and a desire for adventure. Some are driven by a genuine belief in a global jihad, while others are motivated by more personal or local concerns.

4. The Tribal Factor: A Double-Edged Sword in Yemen's Stability

In order to survive in their harshly inhospitable refuge, the northern highland tribes have had little choice but to turn their only asset, the threat or promise of their organised fighting potential, to their material advantage.

Tribal Power. Tribal structures have historically been a source of both strength and instability in Yemen. While they have provided a means of resistance against foreign powers, they have also hindered the development of a strong central state.

• Tribal loyalties often trump national allegiances.
• Tribal sheikhs wield significant power and influence.
• The government has often relied on tribal support to maintain control.

Tribal Law. Tribal law (urf) often competes with and undermines the state's legal system. This can lead to conflicts and a lack of accountability, as tribal leaders often operate outside the reach of the state.

• Tribal justice systems often prioritize revenge and compensation over legal processes.
• The state's attempts to impose its laws are often met with resistance from tribes.

Tribal Mercenaries. The tribes' fighting potential has been exploited by both the state and outside powers. Tribal fighters have been used as mercenaries in various conflicts, highlighting the complex and often contradictory relationship between the tribes and the state.

5. Saudi Arabia's Shadow: A Powerful Neighbor's Influence on Yemen

From the vantage point of eastern Yemen’s magnificent Wadi Doan, the remote fertile canyon from which Osama bin Laden’s father emigrated to Saudi Arabia in 1930, I examine what Yemen’s powerful Saudi neighbour has contributed to the spread of radical Islam in Yemen.

Economic Dependence. Yemen's economy is heavily reliant on remittances from Yemeni workers in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States. This dependence gives Saudi Arabia significant leverage over Yemen's political and economic affairs.

• The expulsion of Yemeni workers from Saudi Arabia in 1990 had a devastating impact on Yemen's economy.
• Saudi Arabia's financial support for Yemen is often conditional on its political alignment.

Ideological Influence. Saudi Arabia has played a significant role in the spread of Wahhabism in Yemen, which has contributed to the rise of radical Islamist groups. This ideological influence has further complicated the already complex religious landscape of Yemen.

• Saudi-funded religious schools and institutions have promoted Wahhabi doctrines.
• The spread of Wahhabism has exacerbated tensions between Zaydis and Sunnis.

Border Tensions. The long and porous border between Yemen and Saudi Arabia has been a source of tension and conflict. Smuggling, cross-border raids, and the movement of jihadists have all contributed to instability in the region.

• The Saudi border wall has been a source of resentment and conflict.
• The border region has become a haven for smugglers and jihadists.

6. The State's Struggle: Balancing Power, Corruption, and Instability

If, as President Ali Abdullah Salih likes to complain to foreign journalists, ruling Yemen is as delicate and dangerous as dancing on the heads of snakes, the implications for the West are serious.

Centralized Power. President Salih has maintained a tight grip on power for over three decades, relying on a network of family members, tribal allies, and military and security forces. This concentration of power has come at the expense of democratic institutions and the rule of law.

• The president's family and tribe hold key positions in the government and military.
• The civil service is bloated and inefficient, serving as a source of patronage.
• Corruption is endemic, undermining the state's legitimacy and effectiveness.

Economic Challenges. Yemen's economy is plagued by a lack of diversification, dependence on oil revenues, and high levels of unemployment. These economic challenges have contributed to social unrest and instability.

• Oil production is declining, threatening the country's main source of revenue.
• Water scarcity is a growing problem, particularly in the capital, Sanaa.
• The government's failure to address these economic challenges has fueled discontent.

Limited Capacity. The state's capacity to govern effectively is limited by its weak institutions, corruption, and the influence of tribal and regional power brokers. This has made it difficult for the government to address the country's many challenges.

7. The South's Secessionist Dream: A Persistent Challenge to Unity

By the first decade of the new millennium there were plenty of other indicators pointing to Yemen’s suitability as a recruiting ground for jihadists in both the short and longer term.

Historical Grievances. The south's desire for independence is rooted in a long history of grievances, including the legacy of British colonial rule, the imposition of a northern-dominated government after unification, and the economic marginalization of the south.

• The south was ruled separately by the British for over a century.
• The 1994 civil war further alienated southerners from the north.
• The south has been economically marginalized since unification.

Secessionist Movement. The Southern Mobility Movement has gained momentum in recent years, fueled by a sense of injustice and a desire for self-determination. This movement poses a serious threat to the unity of Yemen.

• The movement has organized protests and rallies demanding independence.
• The movement has attracted support from a wide range of southerners, including former Marxists and tribal leaders.

Limited Options. The government's heavy-handed response to the secessionist movement has only served to further alienate southerners and strengthen their resolve. The lack of a political solution to the conflict has created a dangerous and volatile situation.

8. Dancing on Snakes: Salih's Precarious Balancing Act

My aim in writing this book has been to provide the general western reader with an account of, but also an accounting for, the genesis and growth of contemporary jihadism in this wildest and most obscure part of its Arabian heartland.

Complex Challenges. President Salih has faced a multitude of challenges during his long rule, including tribal rivalries, regional divisions, economic hardship, and the rise of jihadism. His ability to navigate these challenges has been crucial to maintaining his grip on power.

• He has relied on a combination of co-option, bribery, and force to maintain control.
• He has often played different factions against each other to prevent any one group from becoming too powerful.

Limited Options. Salih's options for addressing Yemen's problems are limited by the country's weak institutions, its dependence on foreign aid, and the influence of powerful tribal and regional actors. He has often been forced to make difficult choices that have alienated different segments of the population.

• He has had to balance the demands of the West with the needs of his own people.
• He has had to navigate the complex web of tribal and regional loyalties.

Uncertain Future. The future of Yemen remains uncertain, with the country facing a multitude of challenges that threaten its stability and unity. Whether Salih can continue to dance on the heads of snakes remains to be seen.

Last updated: January 20, 2025