When Prophecy Fails

What's When Prophecy Fails about?

• Study of belief systems: The book examines how individuals and groups respond to disconfirmed prophecies, focusing on a modern group that predicted the end of the world.
• Social and psychological insights: It explores the psychological mechanisms that lead believers to maintain their convictions even in the face of undeniable evidence against them.
• Case study approach: Authors Leon Festinger, Henry W. Riecken, and Stanley Schachter conducted a field study of a specific group, providing empirical data to support their theories.

Why should I read When Prophecy Fails?

• Understanding human behavior: The book offers valuable insights into how people cling to beliefs, which is relevant in various contexts, from religion to politics.
• Psychological theories: It introduces the concept of cognitive dissonance, explaining how conflicting beliefs can lead to irrational behavior and increased fervor in belief.
• Historical context: The authors provide historical examples of similar movements, enriching the reader's understanding of the phenomenon of prophecy and belief.

What are the key takeaways of When Prophecy Fails?

• Cognitive dissonance theory: The book outlines how individuals experience discomfort when faced with conflicting beliefs and how they often resolve this by doubling down on their original beliefs.
• Five conditions for belief maintenance: The authors identify five conditions that lead to increased fervor after disconfirmation, including deep conviction and social support.
• Role of social groups: The importance of community in maintaining beliefs is emphasized, as believers often find solace and reinforcement in their social circles.

What is cognitive dissonance as defined in When Prophecy Fails?

• Definition of cognitive dissonance: It refers to the mental discomfort experienced when a person holds two or more contradictory beliefs, values, or ideas.
• Behavioral responses: Individuals may change their beliefs, acquire new information to support their existing beliefs, or downplay the importance of the conflicting cognition to reduce dissonance.
• Real-world implications: The theory explains why people may become more entrenched in their beliefs after facing disconfirmation, as they seek to alleviate the discomfort of dissonance.

How do the authors illustrate the concept of disconfirmation in When Prophecy Fails?

• Field study example: The authors conducted a study on a group that predicted the end of the world, observing their reactions when the prophecy failed.
• Historical references: They provide examples from various millennial movements throughout history, showing how believers reacted to failed prophecies.
• Empirical data: The book presents data collected from interviews and observations, demonstrating the psychological mechanisms at play in real-time.

What are the five conditions that lead to increased fervor after disconfirmation in When Prophecy Fails?

• Deep conviction: Believers must hold their beliefs with strong conviction, making them more resistant to change.
• Behavioral commitment: Individuals must have taken significant actions based on their beliefs, which makes it harder to abandon them.
• Specific predictions: The belief must be specific enough to be clearly disconfirmed by real-world events.
• Social support: Believers need a community that reinforces their beliefs, providing emotional and psychological backing.
• Recognition of disconfirmation: The individual must acknowledge the disconfirming evidence for the belief to be challenged.

How does When Prophecy Fails relate to modern social movements?

• Relevance to contemporary issues: The book's insights into belief maintenance can be applied to understand modern social and political movements that resist change despite evidence.
• Psychological mechanisms: The same cognitive dissonance processes observed in the study can be seen in various groups today, from religious sects to political factions.
• Community dynamics: The role of social support in maintaining beliefs is crucial in understanding how movements can thrive even in the face of disconfirmation.

What methods did the authors use in their study in When Prophecy Fails?

• Participant observation: The authors engaged with the group as participant observers, collecting firsthand data on their beliefs and behaviors.
• Interviews: They conducted interviews with group members to gather qualitative data on their experiences and reactions to disconfirmation.
• Field notes: Detailed field notes were taken to document the dynamics of the group and the context of their beliefs.

How did the group react to the failed prophecy in When Prophecy Fails?

• Increased fervor: Many members became more committed to their beliefs, often doubling down on their efforts to convert others.
• Rationalization: Group members developed explanations for the failure of the prophecy, often viewing it as a test of faith or a misunderstanding of the timing.
• Community support: The group’s social dynamics played a significant role in helping members cope with the disconfirmation, reinforcing their beliefs through shared experiences.

How did social support influence the group's beliefs in When Prophecy Fails?

• Importance of community: The presence of fellow believers provided emotional and psychological support, helping members maintain their convictions after disconfirmation.
• Isolation effects: Members who faced disconfirmation in isolation experienced increased doubt and confusion compared to those who remained with the group.
• Collective rationalization: Social support facilitated the group's ability to rationalize their beliefs collectively, reinforcing their commitment to the ideology despite the failed predictions.

What were the consequences of the group's secrecy before and after disconfirmation in When Prophecy Fails?

• Pre-disconfirmation secrecy: The group maintained a strict policy of secrecy regarding their beliefs and predictions, which limited their ability to attract new members and share their message.
• Post-disconfirmation openness: After the failed prophecy, the group shifted to a more open approach, inviting the public and press to engage with their beliefs, reflecting a desperate need for validation.
• Impact on membership: This change in attitude led to increased media attention but failed to attract new followers, ultimately resulting in the group's decline.

What are the best quotes from When Prophecy Fails and what do they mean?

• “A man with a conviction is a hard man to change.”: This quote highlights the stubbornness of individuals when faced with contradictory evidence, illustrating the core theme of the book.
• “The individual believer must have social support.”: This emphasizes that belief is often reinforced by community, suggesting that isolation can lead to doubt.
• “The dissonance cannot be eliminated completely by denying or rationalizing the disconfirmation.”: This quote underscores the complexity of cognitive dissonance, indicating that simply ignoring evidence is insufficient for belief maintenance.