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Big Mistakes

Big Mistakes

The Best Investors and Their Worst Investments
作者 Michael Batnick 2018 192 页数
3.70
1k+ 评分
8 分钟
Listen to Summary (8 分钟)

重点摘要

1. 即使是最伟大的投资者也会犯错

“让你陷入困境的不是你不知道的东西,而是你确信无疑但实际上并非如此的东西。”

谦逊至关重要。 即使是像本杰明·格雷厄姆、沃伦·巴菲特和约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯这样的传奇投资者,在他们的职业生涯中也犯过重大错误。这些错误往往源于过度自信、偏离自己的专业领域或未能适应不断变化的市场条件。

从失败中学习是必不可少的。 最成功的投资者是那些能够认识到自己的错误,从中学习并相应调整策略的人。这种自我批评和适应能力往往是伟大投资者与优秀投资者之间的区别。

  • 著名错误的例子:
  • 本杰明·格雷厄姆在大萧条期间的损失
  • 沃伦·巴菲特收购德克斯特鞋业公司的失败
  • 约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯在早期货币投机中的失败

2. 过度自信可能导致昂贵的错误

“想法是我们的一部分。它们变得像财产一样。尤其是公开的。我是说,反复无常是个坏词。我喜欢改变主意!”

认知偏见影响每个人。 过度自信在投资中是一种特别危险的偏见,因为它可能导致过度冒险和无法认识到自己策略的缺陷。即使是非常聪明和成功的投资者也容易受到这种偏见的影响。

挑战自己的假设至关重要。 定期质疑你的投资论点并愿意改变主意是成功长期投资的必要习惯。这包括积极寻找与自己观点相矛盾的信息,并愿意承认自己错了。

  • 投资中过度自信的迹象:
  • 忽视相反的证据
  • 过度交易
  • 集中投资于单一股票或行业
  • 不愿出售亏损头寸

3. 集中投资带来重大风险

“集中投资致富,分散投资保富。”

高风险,高回报。 集中投资可以带来卓越的回报,正如沃伦·巴菲特和查理·芒格所示。然而,如果他们的赌注没有成功,这也会使投资者面临巨大的下行风险。

平衡是关键。 虽然集中投资可以是财富创造的途径,但重要的是要认识到其中的固有风险,并在财富增长时进行分散投资。这种方法有助于防止灾难性损失并确保长期的财务稳定。

  • 集中投资的风险:
  • 单一公司风险
  • 行业特定的衰退
  • 监管变化
  • 技术颠覆

4. 在你的能力圈内投资的重要性

“如果你玩别人有能力而你没有的游戏,你会输。”

了解你的优势。 成功的投资通常涉及坚持你真正理解和具有竞争优势的领域。冒险进入这个能力圈之外可能导致糟糕的决策和重大损失。

持续学习扩大机会。 虽然重要的是要留在你的能力圈内,但通过学习和经验积极扩大这个圈子可以随着时间的推移打开新的投资机会。

  • 定义和扩大你的能力圈的方法:
  • 识别你了解的行业
  • 利用专业经验
  • 广泛阅读新行业
  • 寻求不同领域专家的指导

5. 识别和学习投资失败

“如果你深入了解任何人,你就会找到一个伙伴。”

失败是不可避免的。 每个投资者,无论多么成功,都会经历失败和挫折。关键是将这些失败视为学习机会,而不是让它们破坏你的长期策略。

进行事后分析。 在每次重大投资决策后,无论成功与否,分析什么是对的或错的都是有价值的。这个过程有助于完善你的投资方法并避免重复错误。

  • 分析投资失败时要问的问题:
  • 哪些假设是错误的?
  • 初始论点是否有缺陷?
  • 外部因素是否发生了变化?
  • 如何更好地管理风险?

6. 混淆牛市与聪明才智的危险

“天才是一个上升的市场。”

市场周期制造幻觉。 在牛市期间,许多投资者将运气误认为是技能,导致过度自信和过度冒险。当市场条件不可避免地发生变化时,这可能会使他们面临重大损失。

保持视角。 在评估你的投资表现时,理解更广泛的市场背景至关重要。在牛市中表现优异并不一定表明技能出众,就像在熊市中表现不佳并不总是反映出糟糕的决策。

  • 混淆牛市与聪明才智的迹象:
  • 将所有收益归因于个人技能
  • 忽视更广泛的市场趋势
  • 承担越来越多的风险
  • 无视谨慎的建议

7. 管理情绪和避免投资中的后悔

“我的意图是尽量减少未来的后悔。”

情绪会破坏策略。 恐惧、贪婪和后悔是强大的情绪,可能导致投资者做出非理性的决定,例如在市场低谷时卖出或追逐高估资产。

制定有纪律的方法。 创建并坚持一个深思熟虑的投资计划可以帮助减轻情绪化决策。这可能包括设定明确的进出标准,跨资产类别分散投资,并定期重新平衡你的投资组合。

  • 管理投资中情绪的策略:
  • 尽可能自动化投资决策
  • 限制对每日市场噪音的暴露
  • 练习正念和情绪意识
  • 寻求可信来源的客观建议

8. 重复卓越投资成功的挑战

“你只需要赢一次。”

非凡的回报是罕见的。 虽然一些投资者通过单一投资或策略取得了惊人的成功,但持续重复这种表现是极其困难的。试图复制过去的成功可能导致过度冒险和糟糕的决策。

专注于长期一致性。 与其追逐非凡的回报,不如追求一种一致、纪律严明的方法,这种方法可以随着时间的推移产生稳健的回报。这种方法更有可能导致持续的财富创造和保值。

  • 重复投资成功的挑战:
  • 不断变化的市场条件
  • 增加的竞争
  • 管理更大的资产规模
  • 超越的心理压力

9. 耐心和纪律在长期投资中的价值

“如果你不愿意以平静的心态应对每世纪两三次市场价格下跌50%或更多的情况,你就不适合做普通股东,你将得到比那些有这种气质、能更哲学地看待这些市场波动的人更平庸的结果。”

时间是投资者的盟友。 复利的力量在长时间内效果最佳,最成功的投资者往往是那些能够在市场波动中保持稳定航向的人。

培养心理韧性。 建立在市场下跌时不恐慌抛售的能力对于长期投资成功至关重要。这包括理解市场周期,拥有现实的期望,并保持与你的风险承受能力相一致的多元化投资组合。

  • 耐心和纪律投资的好处:
  • 降低交易成本
  • 减少税务负担
  • 能够从长期市场趋势中受益
  • 减少短期市场噪音的影响

最后更新日期:

FAQ

What's "Big Mistakes: The Best Investors and Their Worst Investments" about?

  • Focus on Mistakes: The book by Michael Batnick explores the biggest mistakes made by some of the world's most successful investors, highlighting that even the best have faced significant failures.
  • Learning from Errors: It emphasizes the importance of learning from these errors to improve one's own investment strategies and decision-making processes.
  • Profiles of Investors: The book profiles various renowned investors, such as Warren Buffett, Jesse Livermore, and Benjamin Graham, detailing their investment blunders.
  • Human Element in Investing: It underscores the human emotions and psychological biases that often lead to these investment mistakes.

Why should I read "Big Mistakes: The Best Investors and Their Worst Investments"?

  • Gain Perspective: Reading the book provides insights into the challenges and setbacks faced by legendary investors, offering a realistic perspective on investing.
  • Learn from the Best: It allows readers to learn from the mistakes of successful investors, potentially avoiding similar pitfalls in their own investment journeys.
  • Understand Behavioral Finance: The book delves into behavioral finance, explaining how emotions and cognitive biases can impact investment decisions.
  • Improve Decision-Making: By understanding these mistakes, readers can enhance their decision-making skills and develop more robust investment strategies.

What are the key takeaways of "Big Mistakes: The Best Investors and Their Worst Investments"?

  • Mistakes Are Inevitable: Even the most successful investors make mistakes, and these errors are an integral part of the investment process.
  • Emotional Control: Managing emotions and avoiding cognitive biases are crucial for successful investing.
  • Long-Term Perspective: A long-term investment approach often helps in overcoming short-term setbacks and market volatility.
  • Continuous Learning: Investors should continuously learn from their experiences and those of others to refine their strategies.

What are the best quotes from "Big Mistakes: The Best Investors and Their Worst Investments" and what do they mean?

  • "Tell me where I'm going to die so I never go there." - Charlie Munger: This quote emphasizes the importance of understanding and avoiding potential pitfalls in investing.
  • "If a man is both wise and lucky, he will not make the same mistake twice." - Jesse Livermore: It highlights the value of learning from past mistakes to avoid repeating them.
  • "The most important thing successful investors have in common is worrying about what they can control." - Michael Batnick: This underscores the importance of focusing on controllable factors in investing rather than external uncertainties.
  • "It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong." - Attributed to John Maynard Keynes: This suggests that having a general understanding of investment principles is more valuable than being overly precise but incorrect.

How does Michael Batnick define "value investing" in the book?

  • Margin of Safety: Value investing involves buying securities at a discount to their intrinsic value, providing a margin of safety.
  • Long-Term Focus: It emphasizes a long-term perspective, focusing on the underlying value of a business rather than short-term market fluctuations.
  • Avoiding Overvaluation: Value investors seek to avoid overvalued stocks, instead looking for undervalued opportunities with potential for growth.
  • Behavioral Discipline: Successful value investing requires discipline to avoid emotional reactions to market volatility and to stick to a well-defined strategy.

What lessons can be learned from Warren Buffett's mistakes as discussed in the book?

  • Overconfidence: Even Buffett has fallen prey to overconfidence, as seen in his costly investment in Dexter Shoes.
  • Importance of Moats: Buffett emphasizes the importance of investing in companies with strong competitive advantages or "moats."
  • Learning from Errors: Buffett is transparent about his mistakes, using them as learning opportunities to improve future investment decisions.
  • Focus on Fundamentals: Despite mistakes, Buffett's focus on fundamental analysis and long-term value has been key to his success.

How does the book explain the concept of "behavioral finance"?

  • Emotional Impact: Behavioral finance examines how emotions and psychological biases affect financial decision-making.
  • Cognitive Biases: The book discusses various cognitive biases, such as overconfidence and hindsight bias, that can lead to investment mistakes.
  • Market Behavior: It explores how collective investor behavior, driven by emotions, can lead to market inefficiencies and opportunities.
  • Practical Application: Understanding behavioral finance can help investors make more rational decisions and avoid common pitfalls.

What is the significance of "circle of competence" as mentioned in the book?

  • Understanding Limits: The concept emphasizes the importance of understanding one's own knowledge limits and investing within that area of expertise.
  • Avoiding Overreach: Investors are advised to avoid venturing into unfamiliar areas where they lack expertise, as this can lead to costly mistakes.
  • Focus on Strengths: By focusing on areas where they have a competitive advantage, investors can make more informed and confident decisions.
  • Buffett's Approach: Warren Buffett is a strong proponent of this concept, often attributing his success to staying within his circle of competence.

How does the book address the role of luck in investing?

  • Luck vs. Skill: The book acknowledges that luck plays a significant role in investing, alongside skill and strategy.
  • Recognizing Fortuity: Successful investors often recognize the role of luck in their achievements and remain humble about their successes.
  • Avoiding Overconfidence: By understanding the impact of luck, investors can avoid becoming overconfident and making reckless decisions.
  • Balancing Factors: The book suggests that a balanced approach, considering both skill and luck, is essential for long-term investment success.

What are some common investment mistakes highlighted in the book?

  • Overtrading: Frequent buying and selling can lead to high transaction costs and poor investment performance.
  • Emotional Reactions: Allowing emotions to drive investment decisions often results in buying high and selling low.
  • Ignoring Fundamentals: Focusing on short-term market trends rather than the underlying value of investments can lead to poor outcomes.
  • Lack of Diversification: Concentrating investments in a few assets increases risk and potential for significant losses.

How does "Big Mistakes" illustrate the importance of learning from past errors?

  • Case Studies: The book uses real-life examples of successful investors to show how they learned from their mistakes.
  • Continuous Improvement: It emphasizes the importance of continuous learning and adapting strategies based on past experiences.
  • Avoiding Repetition: By understanding the reasons behind past mistakes, investors can avoid repeating them in the future.
  • Growth Mindset: The book advocates for a growth mindset, where mistakes are seen as opportunities for development and improvement.

What advice does Michael Batnick offer for managing investment risk?

  • Diversification: Spreading investments across different asset classes and sectors to reduce risk.
  • Emotional Discipline: Maintaining emotional discipline to avoid impulsive decisions during market volatility.
  • Long-Term Focus: Adopting a long-term perspective to ride out short-term market fluctuations and focus on fundamental value.
  • Risk Assessment: Regularly assessing and adjusting risk exposure based on changing market conditions and personal circumstances.

评论

3.70 满分 5
平均评分来自 1k+ 来自Goodreads和亚马逊的评分.

《大错误:佳投资者及其差投资》获得了褒贬不一的评价。一些读者认为这本书富有洞见,突出了著名投资者的错误并提供了宝贵的教训。另一些人则批评其内容肤浅和编辑不佳。这本书因其独特的投资角度而受到赞赏,重点放在错误而非成功上。许多人欣赏其简洁和对初学者的易读性。然而,经验丰富的投资者可能会觉得内容熟悉。后一章详细描述了作者的个人旅程,常被认为是本书强的部分。总体而言,这本书被认为是一本快速、愉快的读物,对投资者有潜在的教益。

Your rating:

关于作者

迈克尔·巴特尼克是Ritholtz财富管理公司的研究总监,负责领导内部研究工作,并为客户提供投资策略和风险管理建议。作为特许金融分析师(CFA),巴特尼克时刻关注行业趋势和研究动态。他撰写了《大错误:佳投资者和他们糟糕的投资》一书,并共同主持了Animal Spirits播客。巴特尼克的职业轨迹值得注意,从失业两年到通过抓住机会和有效的社交网络,晋升到现在的职位。他的工作重点是为公司的投资委员会制定投资组合策略和分析市场趋势。

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