College Unbound

1. American Higher Education is Broken and Overpriced

American higher education is broken.

A system in crisis. Once the envy of the world, American higher education is now failing many students. Costs have spiraled out of control, quality is declining for the majority, and completion rates lag behind other developed nations. Only slightly more than half of students who start college finish with a bachelor's degree within six years.

Economic risks abound. This failure carries significant economic consequences. College graduates earn significantly more than dropouts, and the gap is widening. As the baby boomer generation retires, the U.S. risks having a less educated workforce for the first time, impacting national prosperity and the American dream.

Complacency is dangerous. A federal commission warned in 2006 that higher education had become "risk-averse, at times self-satisfied, and unduly expensive." Like industries that failed to adapt (railroads, steel), colleges cling to tradition despite clear signs of trouble, resisting change and accountability.

2. The "Lost Decade": Chasing Prestige and Treating Students as Customers

As colleges have grown more corporate in the past decade, they have started acting like Fortune 500 companies.

More was the principle. From 1999 to 2009, dubbed the "Lost Decade," colleges focused on growth and rankings. They built lavish facilities, added numerous majors, chased high-achieving students with merit scholarships, and increased tuition to fund it all, often going deep into debt.

Students as customers. Institutions began treating students like customers to be pleased, not learners to be challenged. This led to grade inflation and a focus on convenience over rigor, as seen in cases like Louisiana State University removing a professor whose class had a high failure rate.

Credential creep. The demand for degrees surged, partly due to a demographic boom and the need for credentials in a competitive job market. Colleges responded by creating hundreds of new, often vocational, majors, and master's degrees became the new bachelor's, driving up costs and debt without clear evidence of added value.

3. Five Forces Are Collapsing the Traditional Model

The decade ahead for colleges and universities will be much different than the Lost Decade.

A perfect storm. The financial crisis of 2008 marked the beginning of the end for the old model. Colleges now face a confluence of pressures forcing radical change:

• Sea of Red Ink: Many institutions face unsustainable financial paths due to rising costs, flat/falling net tuition, and declining research dollars.
• Disappearing State Support: Public colleges receive less state funding, shifting costs to students and pushing them to act more like private institutions.
• Well of Full-Paying Students Drying Up: Demographic shifts and economic pressures mean fewer traditional college-age students and fewer families able to pay full price, increasing competition for students globally.
• Improving Unbundled Alternatives: New providers (online courses, digital badges) offer pieces of the college experience cheaper and more flexibly.
• Growing Value Gap: Students and families question the ROI of expensive degrees, especially from lower-tier schools, leading to "trading down."

Unsustainable path. A significant portion of colleges are in financial trouble, burdened by debt from the Lost Decade's building boom and unable to raise prices or attract enough full-paying students. They must cut costs drastically or face closure.

4. Technology is Enabling Personalized Learning Experiences

The way we learn should be our most personalized experience because no two people process information the same way.

Data-driven education. Just as retailers and tech companies use data to personalize experiences, colleges are starting to use data analytics to tailor learning. Adaptive learning technologies, like Knewton at Arizona State, track student progress click-by-click, adjusting content and providing immediate feedback.

Flipping the classroom. Technology allows students to consume lectures and basic content online outside of class, freeing up in-class time for active learning, discussion, and problem-solving with the professor acting as a coach. This challenges the traditional lecture format.

Matchmaking students and colleges. Data can improve the inefficient college admissions process. Tools like Naviance and ConnectEDU use student data to help match them with suitable colleges and track their progress towards degree requirements, potentially making the process less stressful and more effective.

5. Online and Hybrid Courses Are Reshaping Delivery

Online education is here to stay, and it’s only going to get better.

Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs). Inspired by efforts like the Stanford AI course with 160,000 students, elite universities are launching MOOC platforms (Coursera, edX). While not yet awarding traditional credit, they offer high-quality content for free, challenging the idea that elite education requires physical presence and high cost.

Hybrid is the future. Research shows students learn just as much, and sometimes faster, in hybrid courses (combining online and face-to-face) as in traditional ones. This model allows colleges to use physical space and faculty time more efficiently, potentially reducing costs for large introductory courses.

Online is mainstream. Online enrollment has soared, becoming a fixture at nearly every type of institution. Universities like Central Florida integrate online and hybrid options into the residential experience, offering students flexibility and accelerating degree completion.

6. The "Student Swirl" Replaces the Straight Line to a Degree

The movement through college these days is much more of a swirl than the straight line of earlier generations.

Multiple stops. The traditional four-year, one-institution path is no longer the norm. Students increasingly "swirl" through multiple colleges (community colleges, four-year universities, online providers) to piece together their education, often transferring credits between institutions.

Arbitrary credit transfer. The credit transfer system is often inconsistent, leading students to accumulate excess credits and debt. Companies like StraighterLine offer low-cost online courses for credit, challenging traditional pricing models but facing resistance from colleges protecting revenue.

Competency-based education. Institutions like Western Governors University offer degrees based on demonstrated mastery of skills, not time spent in class. This model allows students to accelerate through known material, potentially reducing time and cost to degree, especially for working adults.

7. The Value of a Degree is Under Scrutiny, Demanding Data

Hard numbers are needed—not to channel students into specific high-paying degree programs, but to help inform their choices.

ROI is questioned. With rising costs and student debt, families increasingly ask: "Is it worth the money?" While statistics show a clear earnings premium for college graduates, it's been difficult to compare the value of degrees from specific institutions or majors.

Demand for transparency. States are starting to create public databases linking college graduates to their earnings data, providing consumers with concrete ROI information. This challenges colleges that have benefited from market confusion and resisted sharing data.

Completion matters. Research shows that graduating, not just attending, is key to realizing the value of college. Selective colleges tend to have higher graduation rates for all students, suggesting that getting into the "best" college one can is often a better investment, despite higher sticker prices.

8. Skills for the Future Matter More Than Specific Majors

Subjects don’t matter, cognitive abilities do.

Majors vs. Skills. While some studies link specific majors (like engineering) to higher earnings, employers increasingly prioritize skills over narrowly tailored degrees. They seek graduates with critical thinking, problem-solving, communication, teamwork, and adaptability.

Economy in flux. The rapid pace of change means many future jobs don't exist yet. A major chosen today might be obsolete tomorrow. Students and employers recognize the need for flexibility and the ability to learn how to learn.

Beyond the textbook. Cognitive scientists argue that universities should focus on teaching fundamental cognitive abilities (prediction, planning, teamwork) rather than just subject-specific facts. This prepares students to tackle complex, real-world problems.

9. High-Impact Practices Build Essential Future Skills

The most engaged students on campus, Kuh says, are those who take part in "deep approaches to their learning," meaning they are active participants in their intellectual pursuits rather than students who simply take notes in a class.

Active learning is key. Research identifies "high-impact practices" that significantly benefit students and develop crucial skills. These go beyond traditional lectures and passive learning.

Examples of high-impact practices:

• Undergraduate research (like at College of Wooster)
• Study abroad (like at Goucher College)
• Service learning (like at Tulane or Drexel)
• Collaborative projects (like at WPI)
• First-year seminars and capstone experiences
• Engaged faculty mentorship
• Learning from campus jobs (like at University of Iowa)

Developing essential abilities. These experiences cultivate the critical thinking, problem-solving, communication, and teamwork skills employers demand. They also help students mature, gain confidence, and connect learning to the real world.

10. College Isn't a One-Size-Fits-All; Alternatives Are Needed

It seems we send some kids off to college because there is nowhere else to put them.

Not ready for college. The traditional four-year residential college isn't the right fit for all 18-year-olds. Many are academically unprepared, unsure of their path, or simply not ready for the independence, leading to high dropout rates and debt with nothing to show for it.

Middle jobs. A significant portion of middle-class jobs don't require a bachelor's degree but need post-high school training. We need to expand the notion of postsecondary education to include:

• On-the-job training and apprenticeships (like Onshore Outsourcing)
• Structured gap years (like AmeriCorps or programs encouraging work/travel)
• Early college programs (like Wake Early College)

Beyond the degree. For some, alternative paths offer a better transition to the workforce, allowing them to gain skills, earn money, and mature before pursuing a degree later, if needed. This challenges the cultural expectation that everyone must go to a four-year college immediately after high school.

11. The Future: Personalized, Unbundled, Fluid, and Smarter

The college of the future will certainly be different than the one of today, but robots will not replace professors in the classroom anytime soon.

Evolution, not extinction. While elite institutions may resist, the majority of colleges must adapt to survive. The future involves a more efficient system that better serves diverse student needs and proves its value.

Key shifts:

• Personalized: Education tailored to individual learning pace and needs using technology.
• Hybrid: Blending online content (often from shared, high-quality sources) with face-to-face interaction.
• Unbundled: Students piece together education from various providers, with portable credits and alternative credentials.
• Fluid Timelines: Moving beyond fixed semesters and four-year degrees, allowing students to start and finish at their own pace.
• Moneywise: Reforming financial aid, potentially linking cost/aid to future earnings, and encouraging saving.

Balancing tradition and change. The challenge is to integrate innovation while preserving the valuable aspects of the traditional experience: mentorship, peer interaction, exploration, and personal development. The goal is a system that increases attainment, reduces inequality, and prepares students for a complex world and fulfilling lives.

Last updated: June 30, 2025