Crouching Tiger

1. China's Military Rise: A Geopolitical Detective Story

Why is China rapidly developing such offensive capabilities if, as its leaders have repeatedly claimed, China seeks only a peaceful rise?

A central question. Peter Navarro's "Crouching Tiger" frames China's military expansion as a geopolitical puzzle. The core question is whether China's rise is truly peaceful or if it harbors revisionist intentions that could lead to conflict. The book embarks on a "Sherlockian investigation" to uncover the truth behind China's military buildup.

The detective's mission. The book aims to raise public awareness about the increasing danger of conflict with China and to explore potential pathways to peace. It challenges readers to join the investigation, examining clues and considering different perspectives to understand the complex dynamics at play.

The stakes are high. The investigation acknowledges the potential for nuclear conflict, emphasizing the urgency of understanding China's military agenda. By presenting a balanced perspective and exploring various viewpoints, the book seeks to inform and empower readers to engage in a critical discussion about the future of US-China relations.

2. The Century of Humiliation: China's Homeland-Protection Imperative

Given this indelible history of humiliation, it should hardly be surprising that the China of today wants to develop a military force powerful enough to avoid the kind of wanton imperialistic abuses it suffered for more than one hundred years.

Historical context. China's military buildup is deeply rooted in its "century of humiliation," a period of foreign domination and exploitation from 1839 to 1945. This era saw China subjected to military defeats, territorial losses, and the imposition of unequal treaties by Western powers and Japan.

Justified fears. The book argues that China's desire for a strong military is understandable, given its history. The need to protect its homeland from foreign aggression is a legitimate concern that drives its military modernization efforts.

A complex motive. While acknowledging the homeland-protection rationale, the book also questions whether China's military ambitions extend beyond defensive needs. It explores the possibility that China's military buildup is also driven by a desire for regional hegemony and the pursuit of territorial claims.

3. The Malacca Dilemma: Securing Trade Routes and Resources

It is no exaggeration to say that whoever controls the Strait of Malacca will also have a stranglehold on the energy route of China.

Economic vulnerability. China's economic growth has made it heavily dependent on global trade, particularly for energy and raw materials. The Strait of Malacca, a narrow waterway through which much of China's oil imports pass, is a major chokepoint that could be easily blockaded.

Protecting trade. The book argues that China's military buildup is partly driven by a desire to protect its trade routes and ensure access to vital resources. This includes developing a navy capable of projecting power beyond its borders and securing key maritime chokepoints.

A defensive strategy? While acknowledging the need to protect its trade, the book also questions whether China's actions are purely defensive. It explores the possibility that China's military buildup is also aimed at asserting its dominance in the region and challenging the existing international order.

4. The Credible Threat: America's Embargo Capabilities

The perhaps surprising, and even deeply unsettling, answer to this question is an unequivocal “yes.”

Historical precedent. The United States has a long history of using embargoes and sanctions as tools of foreign policy, including against Japan in 1941 and China during the Korean War. This history, coupled with America's formidable naval power, gives China reason to fear a potential US embargo.

Global reach. The US Navy's global presence allows it to potentially blockade key chokepoints and disrupt China's trade routes. This includes the Strait of Malacca, the Suez Canal, and the Strait of Hormuz.

Legitimate fear? The book argues that China's fear of a US embargo is legitimate, given America's past actions and current capabilities. This fear, in turn, could drive China to build up its military to counter the perceived threat.

5. Revisionist Intentions: China's Actions Speak Louder Than Words

This reality begins in 1950 with one of the largest imperial landgrabs in world history: China's military conquests of Tibet and what is now China's most northwest province, Xinjiang.

A history of aggression. Despite its rhetoric of peaceful rise, China has a history of using military force to achieve its goals, including the invasion of Tibet, the Korean War, and border conflicts with India and Vietnam. This history raises questions about China's true intentions and whether it is truly committed to a peaceful rise.

Territorial ambitions. China's territorial claims in the East and South China Seas, its military buildup in the region, and its assertive behavior towards its neighbors suggest that it may be a revisionist power seeking to expand its influence and challenge the existing order.

A combustible mix. The book argues that the combination of China's history of aggression and its growing military power creates a highly combustible mix. This raises the risk of conflict, particularly if China believes it can achieve its goals through force or coercion.

6. Military Spending: The Algebra of War

And that means we will have less and less ability to bring that naval power to bear locally.

The US still outspends China. While China's military spending is growing rapidly, the United States still spends significantly more on its military, both in total and as a percentage of GDP. This fact is often used to downplay the China threat.

Cost advantages. However, China's military spending goes further than America's due to lower personnel costs, cheaper manufacturing, and the theft of foreign technology. This means that China can achieve more with less money.

Economic might. China's superior manufacturing might could allow it to outproduce the United States in a protracted conflict. This raises the specter of China being able to defeat America on the battlefield through sheer industrial capacity.

7. Breaking the Chains: China's Naval Strategy

[I]t would eventually fall upon his own navy to protect the global trading routes Deng was busily building; Liu began working in earnest to forge a navy to rise to that globalized China occasion.

Admiral Liu Huaqing's vision. Admiral Liu Huaqing, the father of the modern Chinese navy, articulated a three-step strategy for achieving global naval supremacy. This strategy involves breaking out of the First and Second Island Chains and projecting power into the Pacific Ocean.

A zero-sum game. The book argues that Liu's strategy is a zero-sum game, as China can only achieve global naval supremacy through the defeat or acquiescence of the US Navy. This raises the risk of conflict between the two powers.

Following the blueprint. There is considerable evidence that China is closely following Liu's three-step blueprint, building a navy capable of challenging the US Navy's dominance in the region. This includes developing aircraft carriers, submarines, and anti-ship missiles.

8. Asymmetric Warfare: The "Carrier Killer" and Beyond

[T]he Chinese have been developing what's called asymmetric weapons like the anti-ship ballistic missile which may be able to hold our naval fleet hostage.

Game-changing weapons. China's development of asymmetric weapons, such as anti-ship ballistic missiles, is a game-changing event that threatens to upset the balance of power in Asia. These weapons are designed to neutralize America's aircraft carriers and other high-value assets.

Counterintervention vs. area denial. China views its asymmetric weapons as defensive tools for "counterintervention," while the United States sees them as offensive weapons for "anti-access, area denial." This difference in perspective highlights the growing strategic rivalry between the two powers.

Winning without fighting. China's goal may not be to sink American ships but to make America believe it can, thereby deterring the US from intervening in regional conflicts. This strategy aims to change the strategic calculus in Washington and induce the US to withdraw from Asia.

9. The Underground Great Wall: China's Nuclear Arsenal

Today, China is the only one of five original nuclear weapons states that is increasing its nuclear arsenal.

Lack of transparency. China's nuclear weapons program is shrouded in secrecy, making it difficult to assess its true capabilities and intentions. This lack of transparency is a major source of concern for the United States and its allies.

The Underground Great Wall. China has built a vast network of underground tunnels to protect its nuclear arsenal from attack. This "Underground Great Wall" makes it difficult for the United States to target China's nuclear forces.

Second-strike capability. China's development of ballistic-missile submarines gives it a credible second-strike capability, enhancing its nuclear deterrence. However, this also raises the risk of miscalculation and escalation in a crisis.

10. The Three Warfares: Non-Kinetic Tools of Coercion

It employs diplomatic pressure, rumor, false narratives, and harassment to express displeasure, assert hegemony and convey threats.

Beyond kinetic force. China is employing "three warfares" – psychological warfare, media warfare, and legal warfare – to advance its territorial claims and exert its influence in the region. These non-kinetic tools are designed to shape public opinion, undermine its opponents, and bend international law to its advantage.

Psychological warfare. China uses economic pressure, diplomatic coercion, and intimidation tactics to deter its neighbors from challenging its claims. This includes economic boycotts, military exercises, and the deployment of civilian vessels to disputed areas.

Media warfare. China uses its state-controlled media to shape public opinion both domestically and internationally, promoting its version of events and discrediting its opponents. This includes investing heavily in international media outlets and censoring dissenting voices.

11. The Taiwan Trigger: A Flashpoint for Superpower Conflict

China considers Taiwan to be the last lost piece of territory during the Century of Humiliation [and that it] is a sacred imperative on the part of the Chinese to retake Taiwan and bring Taiwan back into the embrace of the motherland.

High stakes. Taiwan remains the most likely trigger for a war between China and the United States. China views Taiwan as a renegade province that must be reunified with the mainland, while the United States is committed to defending Taiwan's democracy.

Nationalism, geostrategy, ideology. China's determination to retake Taiwan is driven by nationalism, geostrategic considerations, and ideological concerns. The island's location at the midpoint of the First Island Chain and its democratic system pose a challenge to China's regional ambitions and authoritarian rule.

American commitment. The US commitment to Taiwan's defense is a key factor in deterring Chinese aggression. However, the credibility of that commitment is increasingly in doubt, given China's growing military power and America's economic dependence on China.

12. Peace Through Strength: A Comprehensive Approach

The Chinese today have the largest range of nuclear-capable missiles of any country in the world.

Beyond military might. True strength lies not just in military capabilities but in a comprehensive approach that encompasses economic power, technological innovation, political stability, and strong alliances. This "comprehensive national power" is essential for deterring Chinese aggression and maintaining peace in Asia.

Addressing vulnerabilities. The United States must address its vulnerabilities by hardening its forward bases, diversifying its military assets, and developing new technologies to counter China's asymmetric weapons. This includes investing in submarines, missile defense systems, and cyber warfare capabilities.

Rebuilding alliances. The United States must strengthen its alliances with key partners in Asia, such as Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines. This requires a clear commitment to their defense and a willingness to work together to counter Chinese aggression.

Last updated: April 4, 2025