How Big Things Get Done

1. Planning is crucial: Think slow, act fast

Planning is relatively cheap and safe; delivering is expensive and dangerous.

Careful planning is essential. Many projects fail because they rush into execution without adequate preparation. The "think slow, act fast" approach emphasizes thorough planning to enable swift and smooth delivery. This strategy:

• Reduces risks by identifying and addressing potential issues early
• Allows for creative problem-solving when stakes are low
• Minimizes costly changes during execution

Examples of success and failure:

• Empire State Building: Completed under budget and ahead of schedule due to meticulous planning
• Sydney Opera House: Suffered massive cost overruns and delays due to inadequate initial planning

Key principle: Invest time and resources in planning to save time and money during execution.

2. Avoid the commitment fallacy by questioning assumptions

Projects don't go wrong, they start wrong.

Challenge initial assumptions. The commitment fallacy occurs when project leaders prematurely lock into a decision, sweeping aside alternatives. This often stems from:

• Optimism bias: Overestimating benefits and underestimating costs
• Strategic misrepresentation: Deliberately understating challenges to gain approval
• Pressure to act quickly

Strategies to avoid the commitment fallacy:

• Encourage open questioning of assumptions
• Seek diverse perspectives and expert opinions
• Conduct thorough feasibility studies before committing resources

Real-world impact: Many infrastructure projects, like California's high-speed rail, suffer from premature commitment, leading to massive cost overruns and delays.

3. Start with "why" and think from right to left

Projects are not goals in themselves. Projects are how goals are achieved.

Begin with the end in mind. Successful projects start by clearly defining the ultimate goal or purpose. This "right to left" thinking ensures that every aspect of the project contributes to the desired outcome.

Key steps:

1. Ask "Why are we doing this project?"
2. Define the end goal (the box on the right)
3. Work backwards to determine the necessary steps

Benefits:

• Prevents scope creep and unnecessary work
• Aligns team efforts towards a common purpose
• Enables better decision-making throughout the project

Example: Frank Gehry's approach to designing the Guggenheim Museum Bilbao, where he first understood the city's goals before proposing a solution.

4. Iterate and experiment extensively during planning

If I knew I have to do this only once and get it right, I'd probably hew to the things that I know work.

Embrace iteration and experimentation. Successful projects often involve multiple rounds of planning, testing, and refinement before execution. This approach:

• Allows for creative exploration of ideas
• Identifies and resolves potential issues early
• Builds confidence in the final plan

Examples of iterative planning:

• Pixar's movie development process: Multiple storyboard iterations and screenings
• Frank Gehry's architectural designs: Extensive use of physical and digital models

Key principle: Create a safe environment for experimentation during planning to foster innovation and reduce risks during execution.

5. Leverage experience and modularity for success

Experience is often misunderstood and marginalized.

Harness the power of experience. Projects that leverage relevant experience, both in terms of people and proven methods, are more likely to succeed. This involves:

• Hiring experienced project leaders and teams
• Using proven technologies and methodologies
• Learning from past projects, both successes and failures

Benefits of modularity:

• Enables faster learning and improvement
• Reduces complexity and risk
• Allows for easier scaling and adaptation

Examples:

• Wind and solar power projects: Highly modular and consistently successful
• Nuclear power plants: Often struggle due to complexity and lack of standardization

6. Use reference class forecasting to make accurate predictions

Your project is special, but unless you are doing what has literally never been done before, it is not unique; it is part of a larger class of projects.

Improve forecasting accuracy. Reference class forecasting involves using data from similar past projects to predict outcomes for new projects. This method:

• Overcomes optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation
• Provides a more realistic view of potential costs, timelines, and risks
• Accounts for "unknown unknowns" based on historical data

Steps for reference class forecasting:

1. Identify the relevant class of similar projects
2. Gather data on their outcomes (cost, time, benefits)
3. Use this data as a baseline for your project's forecast
4. Adjust only if there are compelling, data-supported reasons

Impact: Governments and organizations that have adopted reference class forecasting have seen significant improvements in project performance and budget accuracy.

7. Build a unified team committed to delivery

Everyone must row in the same direction: toward delivery.

Foster team unity and commitment. Successful projects require a cohesive team working towards a common goal. Strategies to achieve this include:

• Clearly communicating the project's purpose and vision
• Aligning incentives across different stakeholders
• Encouraging open communication and problem-solving

Example: The construction of Heathrow's Terminal 5, where BAA (the airport operator) implemented innovative contracting and team-building approaches to create a unified project culture.

Key principles:

• Emphasize shared goals over individual interests
• Create a psychologically safe environment for honest communication
• Celebrate collective achievements and milestones

8. Embrace modularity to scale up efficiently and mitigate risks

Big is best built from small.

Leverage modularity for scalability and risk reduction. Modular approaches to project design and execution offer numerous advantages:

• Faster learning and improvement through repetition
• Easier adaptation to changing circumstances
• Reduced complexity and risk of catastrophic failure

Examples of successful modular approaches:

• Container shipping: Revolutionized global trade
• Wind and solar power projects: Rapid scaling and cost reduction
• Software development: Microservices and modular architectures

Key principle: Break down large projects into smaller, repeatable modules to improve efficiency, reduce risk, and enable rapid scaling.

Last updated: August 9, 2024