Speed & Scale

1. Urgent action is needed to reach net-zero emissions by 2050

"Ideas are easy. Execution is everything."

The climate crisis is dire. The world is currently emitting 59 gigatons of greenhouse gases annually, putting us on track for catastrophic warming. To avoid the worst impacts, we must reach net-zero emissions by 2050. This requires cutting emissions in half by 2030 and eliminating or offsetting the rest by mid-century.

We need a clear action plan. The Speed & Scale Plan provides a roadmap to net-zero, breaking down the challenge into key objectives and measurable results across major sectors. It combines ambitious emissions cuts with carbon removal to reach net-zero.

Time is running out. We have less than 30 years to completely transform our energy, transportation, agriculture, and industrial systems. This demands unprecedented speed and scale of action from governments, businesses, investors, and citizens. Every year of delay makes the challenge more difficult and costly.

2. Electrify transportation to cut 8 gigatons of emissions

"Tesla thrived while pushing the car industry forward."

Transition to electric vehicles. Transportation accounts for 14% of global emissions. To eliminate these 8 gigatons, we must rapidly shift to electric cars, trucks, buses, and other vehicles powered by clean electricity. Key targets include:

• Electric vehicles reach price parity with gas cars by 2024 in the U.S., 2030 in India/China
• 50% of new vehicle sales are electric by 2030, 95% by 2040
• 95% of miles driven are electric by 2050

Innovate in batteries and charging. Achieving this transition requires continued innovation to improve EV range, charging speed, and affordability. Companies like QuantumScape are developing next-generation solid-state batteries to dramatically boost performance.

Decarbonize shipping and aviation. While ground transport can be electrified, long-distance shipping and air travel need sustainable fuels or other innovations. The plan calls for 20% of aviation miles to use low-carbon fuels by 2025 and 40% to be carbon-neutral by 2040.

3. Decarbonize the power grid to eliminate 24 gigatons

"If you don't have a strong sense of how policy will affect those factors and how they add up over time, you can't design sound policy."

Rapidly scale up clean energy. The electricity sector accounts for 41% of emissions. Eliminating these 24 gigatons requires a massive build-out of solar, wind, and other zero-carbon sources to reach:

• 50% zero-emission electricity by 2025
• 90% by 2035
• 100% by 2040

Improve energy storage and transmission. To enable high levels of intermittent renewables, we need major advances in:

• Short-duration storage (<$50/kWh by 2025)
• Long-duration storage (<$10/kWh by 2030)
• Grid transmission and flexibility

Phase out fossil fuels. The plan calls for no new coal or gas plants after 2021, retiring or decarbonizing existing plants by 2025 for coal and 2035 for gas. This requires overcoming political and economic hurdles in fossil fuel-dependent regions.

4. Transform agriculture and food systems to reduce 9 gigatons

"Food is the mother of all sustainability challenges."

Shift diets and reduce waste. Agriculture and food systems generate 15% of emissions. Key strategies to cut these 9 gigatons include:

• Reduce beef/dairy consumption 25% by 2030, 50% by 2050
• Cut food waste from 33% to 10% of production
• Promote plant-based alternatives and lab-grown meat

Adopt regenerative practices. Improving soil health through regenerative agriculture can sequester 2 gigatons of CO2 annually. This includes minimizing tilling, using cover crops, and integrating livestock.

Develop cleaner fertilizers and rice. Other priorities are:

• Cut fertilizer emissions 50% through precision agriculture and green alternatives
• Reduce methane from rice farming 50% via new cultivation methods

5. Protect and restore nature to absorb 6 gigatons

"We dealt it ourselves."

End deforestation. Halting deforestation by 2030 would eliminate 6 gigatons of annual emissions. This requires providing economic alternatives to forest-dependent communities and strictly enforcing protections.

Expand protected areas. The plan calls for protecting:

• 30% of land by 2030, 50% by 2050 (up from 15% today)
• 30% of oceans by 2030, 50% by 2050

Restore degraded ecosystems. Reforesting logged areas, restoring wetlands, and reviving degraded farmland can turn these systems back into carbon sinks. Innovative approaches like cultivating seaweed forests offer additional carbon removal potential.

6. Clean up industry to slash 12 gigatons of emissions

"Forgive me for being blunt, but what we've been doing is not enough. We must act now, with speed and scale."

Decarbonize steel and cement. Industry accounts for 20% of emissions, with steel and cement as major contributors. The plan targets:

• 90% emissions reduction in steel by 2040
• 90% emissions reduction in cement by 2040

Electrify industrial processes. Shifting from fossil fuels to clean electricity and green hydrogen for industrial heat and processes is critical. The goal is to cut industrial fossil fuel use 50% by 2040 and eliminate it by 2050.

Reduce emissions from chemicals and manufacturing. Other priorities include:

• Developing low-carbon and recycled plastics
• Improving energy efficiency in manufacturing
• Creating circular material flows to reduce waste

7. Remove 10 gigatons of carbon through technology and nature

"We cannot afford to underestimate our climate emergency."

Scale up engineered solutions. To close the emissions gap, we need to remove 5 gigatons annually through technologies like direct air capture by 2050. This requires dramatic cost reductions from ~$600/ton today to $100/ton by 2030 and $50/ton by 2040.

Expand nature-based removal. The other 5 gigatons should come from enhancing natural carbon sinks through:

• Reforestation and afforestation
• Restoring wetlands and peatlands
• Enhancing soil carbon sequestration
• Cultivating seaweed forests

Develop carbon utilization. Finding valuable uses for captured carbon, like synthetic fuels or building materials, can help drive down costs and create economic incentives for removal.

8. Implement bold policies and carbon pricing to drive change

"A plan is not a guarantee."

Enact ambitious climate laws. Government policy is crucial to drive the energy transition. Key policies include:

• National commitments to net-zero by 2050
• Clean electricity standards (100% by 2040)
• Vehicle electrification mandates
• Building efficiency codes
• Industrial emissions regulations

Price carbon emissions. Putting a price on carbon through taxes or cap-and-trade creates market incentives to cut emissions. The plan calls for a minimum price of $55/ton, rising 5% annually.

End fossil fuel subsidies. Redirecting the $296 billion in annual direct fossil fuel subsidies toward clean energy would accelerate the transition.

9. Mobilize climate movements to increase urgency and action

"I'm scared, and I'm angry."

Build broad-based support. To achieve ambitious climate action, we need movements that:

• Make climate a top voting issue in major countries
• Pressure governments and corporations to act
• Mobilize youth activism like the school climate strikes

Ensure a just transition. Climate policies must address equity concerns and create opportunities in disadvantaged communities to maintain public support.

Change social norms. Movements play a crucial role in shifting cultural attitudes around consumption, travel, diet, and other climate-relevant behaviors.

10. Accelerate innovation in clean technologies

"The best way to predict the future is to invent it."

Increase clean energy R&D. Government funding for clean energy research should increase at least 5x in the U.S. and triple in other countries to drive breakthroughs in areas like:

• Next-generation solar and wind
• Advanced nuclear and fusion
• Long-duration energy storage
• Green hydrogen production
• Carbon capture and utilization

Support cleantech entrepreneurs. Venture capital, incubators, and government programs should nurture startups working on climate solutions to help them scale rapidly.

Reimagine entire industries. Beyond incremental improvements, we need to fundamentally reinvent high-emission industries like steel, cement, and agriculture with entirely new approaches.

11. Dramatically scale up climate-focused investment and financing

"We dealt it ourselves."

Mobilize trillions in capital. Reaching net-zero requires investing $1.7 trillion annually in climate solutions. Key targets include:

• $600 billion in government incentives (up from $128 billion)
• $50 billion in venture capital (up from $13.6 billion)
• $1 trillion in project financing (up from $300 billion)
• $30 billion in philanthropy (up from $10 billion)

Shift financial flows. Beyond increasing climate investment, we must redirect capital away from high-carbon assets and toward clean alternatives across all asset classes.

Price climate risks. Financial institutions should fully account for climate risks and opportunities in all decisions to drive capital reallocation.

12. Ensure a just transition that creates opportunities for all

"We cannot be the generation that breaks that cycle."

Create clean energy jobs. The transition to a zero-carbon economy has the potential to create millions of jobs in areas like renewable energy, building retrofits, and ecosystem restoration.

Support affected communities. Regions dependent on fossil fuel industries need support to diversify their economies and retrain workers for new opportunities.

Address global equity. Developed countries, as the largest historical emitters, have a responsibility to support climate action in developing nations through financing and technology transfer.

Improve resilience. Investments in climate adaptation and resilience are crucial, especially for vulnerable communities already facing climate impacts.

Last updated: October 9, 2024