The End of the World Is Just the Beginning

1. The end of globalization will reshape the world order

The end of the world really is just the beginning.

Globalization is ending. The American-led post-World War II order that enabled global trade, security, and prosperity is breaking down. Without U.S. military and economic dominance ensuring global stability, the world is fracturing into regional blocs. This will disrupt long-standing trade relationships, supply chains, and geopolitical alliances.

A new world is emerging. Key features include:

• Deglobalization and localization of trade and manufacturing
• Increased conflict and competition between regional powers
• Economic and technological regression in many parts of the world
• Reshaping of financial systems and currency dominance
• New challenges around energy security and access to resources

The transition will be messy and painful for much of the world. Countries and regions will need to adapt to a very different global environment with new constraints and opportunities. Understanding these shifts is crucial for navigating the turbulent decades ahead.

2. Demographics are driving major economic shifts

The 2020s are the decade when it all breaks apart.

Demographic decline is inevitable. Most of the developed world and China are facing rapid population aging and decline due to low birth rates. This will have profound economic impacts:

• Shrinking workforces and consumer bases
• Increased healthcare and pension costs
• Reduced economic growth and innovation
• Shifts in patterns of saving and investment

The demographic dividend is over. The period of 1980-2015 saw a unique demographic sweet spot that turbocharged economic growth. That era is ending as populations age. Countries facing the most severe demographic decline include:

• Japan
• South Korea
• China
• Germany
• Italy

The United States is better positioned demographically than most developed countries, but will still face headwinds. Countries need to urgently prepare for the economic and social challenges of aging populations.

3. Transport and energy are key vulnerabilities in a deglobalizing world

Everything we know about human civilization is based on the simple idea of organization.

Global trade relies on secure shipping lanes. The U.S. Navy has guaranteed freedom of navigation since World War II, enabling the current globalized trading system. As American hegemony declines, maritime trade routes will become more contested and risky. This threatens the complex supply chains that the modern economy depends on.

Energy security will be critical. Many countries are dependent on energy imports, particularly oil from the Middle East. In a fractured world, energy supplies will be less reliable and more expensive. Key vulnerabilities include:

• European dependence on Russian natural gas
• East Asian reliance on Middle Eastern oil
• Disruption of key chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz

Countries and regions will need to secure their own energy supplies or face economic turmoil. This may drive a return to coal usage in some areas, complicating efforts to address climate change.

4. Finance and currencies face upheaval as the global system unravels

When capital is cheap enough, even pigs can fly.

The era of cheap capital is ending. Demographic shifts and deglobalization will lead to capital scarcity and higher borrowing costs. This will impact:

• Government budgets and debt servicing
• Corporate investment and expansion
• Consumer borrowing and spending

Dollar dominance may decline. As U.S. hegemony wanes, the dollar's role as the global reserve currency could be challenged. Regional currency blocs may emerge. This would reshape global finance and trade patterns.

Financial crises are likely. Many countries and companies have taken on high debt loads, enabled by low interest rates. As rates rise and growth slows, debt crises and defaults may proliferate. The unwinding of complex financial interconnections could spark broader instability.

5. Access to industrial materials will determine future power dynamics

If you lack iron in the Iron Age, then history tends to forget about you.

Resource access is crucial. Control over key industrial materials like rare earth elements, copper, and lithium will be a major source of geopolitical leverage. Countries lacking domestic supplies will be vulnerable.

China currently dominates processing. China controls processing for many critical materials, giving it outsized influence. As supply chains fragment, other countries will need to develop domestic processing capabilities.

New resource competitions will emerge. Struggles over materials access may drive conflict and neo-colonial efforts. Expect increased resource nationalism and strategic stockpiling by major powers.

6. Manufacturing supply chains will fragment and localize

Modern manufacturing is borderline insane.

Global supply chains will break down. The complex, globe-spanning supply chains that produce modern goods are highly vulnerable to disruption. As deglobalization progresses, manufacturing will become more regional and localized.

Costs will rise, complexity will fall. Products may become more expensive and less technologically sophisticated as economies of scale are lost. Just-in-time manufacturing will give way to larger inventories and redundancies.

Winners and losers will emerge. Countries and regions able to maintain integrated manufacturing ecosystems will have significant advantages. Those lacking key capabilities may deindustrialize. Likely manufacturing hubs include:

• North America
• Germany-centered Europe
• Parts of East Asia

7. The United States is uniquely positioned to thrive in the new world order

The United States is the most powerful river power and land power in history.

Geographic advantages. The U.S. has unparalleled geographic advantages:

• Abundant resources including energy and agriculture
• Internal transportation networks (rivers and infrastructure)
• Insulation from external threats
• Diverse climate zones enabling varied production

Demographic resilience. The U.S. has a younger population than most developed countries and continues to attract immigrants. This provides economic dynamism and workforce stability.

Technological edge. American dominance in key technologies and research gives it a crucial advantage as innovation becomes more challenging globally.

Energy independence. The shale revolution has made the U.S. energy independent, reducing vulnerability to supply disruptions.

These factors position the U.S. to maintain its economic and technological edge even as much of the world regresses. However, political dysfunction remains a key risk to American stability and prosperity.

8. Climate change and green technology present complex challenges

We are perfectly capable of suffering broad-scale economic collapse and vastly increasing our carbon emissions at the same time.

Climate action faces headwinds. Efforts to transition to green energy will be complicated by:

• Disrupted global supply chains for materials and components
• Higher costs for green tech as economies of scale are lost
• Energy security concerns driving increased fossil fuel use
• Reduced international cooperation on climate goals

Uneven impacts and responses. Climate change effects and mitigation efforts will vary greatly by region. Some areas may benefit while others face catastrophe. Adaptation rather than prevention may become the focus for many.

Technology limitations. Current green technologies have significant drawbacks in terms of intermittency, energy density, and resource requirements. Breakthroughs are needed but may be hampered by reduced R&D capabilities in a deglobalized world.

9. Regional powers will vie for influence in a multipolar world

After all, history has no endgame.

Power vacuums will emerge. As U.S. global influence declines, regional powers will assert themselves more aggressively. Likely players include:

• China in East Asia
• Russia in Eastern Europe and Central Asia
• Turkey in the Middle East and Mediterranean
• France and Germany in Europe
• India in South Asia

Conflict risk increases. Without a global hegemon to maintain order, interstate warfare may become more common. Flashpoints could include:

• Taiwan and the South China Sea
• Eastern Europe and the Baltics
• The Persian Gulf

New alliances will form. Countries will seek to balance against regional threats through new security arrangements. Expect shifting and sometimes unstable coalitions rather than rigid blocs.

10. Prepare for economic and technological regression in many parts of the world

For most of the global urban population, this leads to the same place: massive deindustrialization and depopulation as people are forced to return to the countryside.

Living standards will decline. Many regions will struggle to maintain current levels of economic complexity and technological sophistication. Expect:

• Deindustrialization in areas cut off from key supply chains
• Reduced availability of advanced consumer goods
• Degraded infrastructure as maintenance becomes difficult
• Possible food insecurity in import-dependent regions

Urbanization may reverse. Some megacities may become unsustainable without reliable energy and supply chains. Rural areas with local food and energy production could see population inflows.

Knowledge and skills may be lost. As complex industries break down, specialized knowledge and manufacturing capabilities could disappear from many regions. Reacquiring these capabilities later will be challenging.

Adaptation is key. Countries and communities will need to focus on resilience and self-sufficiency. Cultivating basic manufacturing and agricultural capabilities may become a priority even for previously advanced economies.

Human Development Foundation works to improve education, healthcare, and economic opportunities in developing countries. Learn more at www.hdf.com.

Last updated: September 29, 2024