The Future of Freedom

1. Liberty Precedes Democracy: The Western Path

For much of modern history, what characterized governments in Europe and North America, and differentiated them from those around the world, was not democracy but constitutional liberalism.

Historical Sequence. The West's journey to liberal democracy was not a simultaneous event but a process where individual liberty, protected by law, came first, followed by the expansion of democratic participation. This sequence is crucial, as it established a foundation of rights and limitations on power before the full force of popular will was unleashed.

• The separation of church and state in the West created a space for individual thought and action.
• The struggles between lords and kings led to the rule of law and the protection of property rights.
• The Reformation fostered religious freedom and challenged traditional authority.

Constitutional Liberalism. This concept, emphasizing individual rights, the rule of law, and limited government, is distinct from democracy, which is primarily about the process of selecting leaders. The West's success was not due to democracy alone, but to the prior establishment of constitutional liberalism, which provided a framework for a stable and just society. The "Western model of government" is best symbolized not by the mass plebiscite but the impartial judge.

The English Exception. England's unique path, with its independent aristocracy, early capitalism, and strong tradition of law, served as a model for the development of liberal democracy. The American colonies, inheriting this tradition, further solidified the importance of constitutional liberalism in the formation of their government. This path was not replicated in many other parts of the world.

2. The Perils of Premature Democratization

Racist authoritarian nationalism triumphed at the end of the Weimar Republic not despite the democratization of political life but because of it.

Democracy Without Liberalism. The history of continental Europe, particularly Germany and France, demonstrates that democracy without a strong foundation of constitutional liberalism can lead to instability and even tyranny. The expansion of suffrage without a corresponding emphasis on individual rights and the rule of law can empower demagogues and exacerbate social divisions.

• The rise of Karl Lueger in Vienna and Adolf Hitler in Germany were fueled by democratic processes.
• The French Revolution, while proclaiming liberty, also led to the centralization of power and the suppression of dissent.
• The Weimar Republic, a well-designed democracy, was ultimately destroyed by the forces of nationalism and extremism.

The Importance of Institutions. The success of liberal democracy depends not only on elections but also on the strength of institutions that check the power of the state and protect individual rights. These include an independent judiciary, a free press, and a vibrant civil society. Without these institutions, democracy can easily devolve into illiberalism.

The Need for a Bourgeoisie. The rise of a strong, independent middle class, with its own economic power and interests, is crucial for the development of liberal democracy. In countries where the bourgeoisie is weak or dependent on the state, the path to liberal democracy is often more difficult and fraught with peril.

3. Illiberal Democracy: A Global Phenomenon

Across the globe, democratically elected regimes, often ones that have been re-elected or reaffirmed through referenda, are routinely ignoring constitutional limits on their power and depriving their citizens of basic rights.

Elections Without Liberty. Illiberal democracies are characterized by free and fair elections but a lack of respect for constitutional limits on power and the protection of basic rights. This phenomenon is visible in many parts of the world, from Latin America to Central Asia.

• Russia under Boris Yeltsin and Vladimir Putin has seen a weakening of the legislature and the courts.
• Venezuela under Hugo Chavez has seen a concentration of power in the executive branch.
• Many African countries have held elections that have not led to greater liberty or stability.

The Rise of Popular Autocrats. In illiberal democracies, leaders often use their popularity to undermine institutions and suppress dissent. They may claim to represent the will of the people, but they often ignore the rights of minorities and the rule of law.

The Dangers of Unchecked Power. The absence of checks and balances in illiberal democracies can lead to corruption, abuse of power, and the suppression of dissent. These regimes often become unstable and prone to violence. The key is not simply to have elections, but to have a system that can control the governed and control itself.

4. The Arab World: A Unique Challenge

The Arab world today is trapped between autocratic states and illiberal societies, neither of them fertile ground for liberal democracy.

The Absence of Liberalism. The Arab world presents a unique challenge to the spread of liberal democracy. Many Arab societies lack a tradition of constitutional liberalism, and their political systems are often characterized by autocratic rule and a lack of respect for individual rights.

• The region is marked by a tension between autocratic states and illiberal societies.
• Many Arab rulers fear that democracy will lead to the rise of Islamic fundamentalism.
• The region is plagued by conspiracy theories and a lack of self-criticism.

The Role of Islam. While Islam is not inherently incompatible with democracy, the absence of a strong tradition of religious authority and the rise of fundamentalist movements have created challenges for the development of liberal democracy in the Arab world.

• Islam has an anti-authoritarian streak, but it also lacks a clear separation between church and state.
• The rise of Islamic fundamentalism is a response to the failure of secular regimes.
• The region is awash in conspiracy theories and a lack of self-criticism.

The Importance of Economic Reform. The oil-rich states of the Middle East have failed to develop strong economies or political institutions. Their wealth has not produced a strong middle class or a tradition of the rule of law. The key to change is not simply democracy, but economic and political reform.

5. The Democratic Wave: A Double-Edged Sword

The increasing democratization of all spheres of society is an unqualified good.

Democratization Beyond Politics. The democratic wave is not limited to politics but has also transformed the economic and cultural realms. This has led to the breakdown of hierarchies, the empowerment of individuals, and the rise of popular culture.

• Capitalism has become more democratic, with the rise of mass consumption and investment.
• Culture has become more democratic, with the rise of popular music, movies, and television.
• Technology and information have been democratized, empowering individuals but also creating new challenges.

The Dark Side of Democracy. While democratization has had many positive consequences, it has also had its dark sides. The breakdown of traditional authority, the rise of populism, and the erosion of social institutions have created new challenges for liberal democracy.

• The democratization of violence has weakened the state's monopoly on the use of force.
• The rise of illiberal democracy has shown that elections alone do not guarantee liberty.
• The increasing democratization of all spheres of society has eroded traditional institutions and values.

The Need for Balance. The key to a successful liberal democracy is to find a balance between democracy and liberty, between the will of the majority and the rights of the minority. This requires a complex system of checks and balances, strong institutions, and a vibrant civil society.

6. The Erosion of Authority: A Modern Dilemma

In America, laws and rights are firmly established. The less-formal constraints, however, that are the inner stuffing of liberal democracy are disappearing.

The Decline of Traditional Institutions. In the United States, the democratic wave has led to the erosion of many traditional institutions, including political parties, professions, and civic associations. These institutions, while often undemocratic in their structure, played a crucial role in mediating between the individual and the state.

• Political parties have become weaker and more responsive to public opinion.
• Professional elites have lost their prestige and public purpose.
• Civic associations have declined in membership and influence.

The Rise of Populism. The decline of traditional institutions has been accompanied by the rise of populism, which emphasizes the will of the people and distrusts elites. This has led to a more polarized and dysfunctional political system.

• Politicians are increasingly focused on pandering to public opinion.
• Pollsters have become the new soothsayers, interpreting public opinion surveys.
• The media has become more sensationalistic and less focused on substance.

The Loss of Restraint. The erosion of authority has led to a loss of restraint in American society. The emphasis on individual autonomy and the rejection of traditional values have created a more chaotic and less stable social order. The forces that guided democracy are quickly being eroded.

7. Delegation: A Path to Effective Governance

The essence of liberal democratic politics is the construction of a rich, complex social order, not one dominated by a single idea.

The Limits of Direct Democracy. The experience of California and other states demonstrates that direct democracy, while appealing in theory, can lead to dysfunctional government. The absence of deliberation, compromise, and expertise can result in poorly crafted laws and a lack of accountability.

• Referendums and initiatives have become a tool for special interests and wealthy individuals.
• The state budget has become increasingly inflexible and difficult to manage.
• The political system has become more polarized and less effective.

The Need for Delegation. In a complex modern society, it is necessary to delegate some decision-making authority to unelected bodies that are insulated from short-term political pressures. This is particularly true in areas such as monetary policy, trade, and regulation.

• Independent central banks have proven to be more effective at managing monetary policy.
• International organizations such as the WTO and the EU have been able to promote free trade and economic integration.
• The American court system, with its unelected judges, has been a bulwark of liberty.

The Importance of Checks and Balances. While delegation is necessary, it is also important to maintain checks and balances on the power of unelected bodies. This can be done through legislative oversight, judicial review, and public scrutiny. The goal is to create a system that is both effective and accountable.

8. The Enduring Quest for Balance

This book is a call for self-control, for a restoration of balance between democracy and liberty.

The Need for Self-Control. The democratic wave has unleashed powerful forces that have transformed the world. But like any broad transformation, it has its dark sides. The key to a successful liberal democracy is to find a balance between democracy and liberty, between the will of the majority and the rights of the minority.

• Democracy is a single ideology, and like all such templates, it has its limits.
• Democratic societies need new buffers and guides, designed for modern problems and times.
• The goal is liberal democracy not as it was practiced in the nineteenth century but as it should be practiced in the twenty-first century.

The Importance of History. To understand the challenges of the present, it is necessary to understand the past. The struggle for liberty and democracy in the West provides valuable lessons for countries around the world.

• Liberty came to the West centuries before democracy.
• Liberty led to democracy and not the other way around.
• The West's success was due to a series of power struggles that produced a rich and complex social order.

The Perennial Quest. The quest for life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness is a perennial one. It requires constant vigilance, a willingness to learn from the past, and a commitment to building a more just and equitable world. The future of freedom depends on our ability to find a balance between democracy and liberty.

Last updated: January 29, 2025