The Grand Chessboard

1. Eurasia is the Center of Global Power

Ever since the continents started interacting politically, some five hundred years ago, Eurasia has been the center of world power.

Historical Significance. For the past half-millennium, Eurasia has been the epicenter of global power dynamics. Various Eurasian powers have vied for regional dominance, projecting their influence worldwide. This historical trend underscores the continent's enduring geopolitical importance.

Geographic and Economic Weight. Eurasia is the largest continent, home to approximately 75% of the world's population and a substantial portion of its physical wealth. It accounts for about 60% of the world's GNP and holds roughly three-quarters of the world's known energy resources. This concentration of resources and population makes Eurasia a critical arena for global power struggles.

Political Assertiveness. The continent houses most of the world's politically assertive and dynamic states. These nations possess the capacity and will to exert influence beyond their borders, making Eurasia a complex and competitive geopolitical landscape. The struggle for global primacy continues to be played on the Eurasian chessboard.

2. American Primacy Depends on Eurasia

For the first time ever, a non-Eurasian power has emerged not only as the key arbiter of Eurasian power relations but also as the world's paramount power.

Unprecedented American Role. The United States, a non-Eurasian power, has risen to become the key arbiter of power relations in Eurasia. This marks a significant shift in global dynamics, as American global primacy is now directly linked to its influence on the Eurasian continent.

Managing Eurasian Power Dynamics. The ability of the United States to effectively manage the complex power relationships within Eurasia is crucial for maintaining its global primacy. Preventing the emergence of a dominant and antagonistic Eurasian power is a central objective of American foreign policy.

Maintaining Stability. A sudden end to American supremacy, whether through withdrawal or the rise of a rival, would create massive international instability. Therefore, how America "manages" Eurasia is critical to global peace and security. The sudden emergence of the first and only global power has created a situation in which an equally quick end to its supremacy would produce massive international instability.

3. Geostrategy Requires Managing Key Players and Pivots

In brief, for the United States, Eurasian geostrategy involves the purposeful management of geostrategically dynamic states and the careful handling of geopolitically catalytic states.

Identifying Key Actors. Effective geostrategy requires identifying the geostrategically dynamic Eurasian states that can significantly alter the international distribution of power. Understanding the external goals of their political elites and the potential consequences of their actions is essential.

Pinpointing Geopolitical Pivots. It is also crucial to pinpoint the geopolitically critical Eurasian states whose location and/or existence have catalytic effects on the more active geostrategic players or on regional conditions. Protecting these pivots is a key aspect of American global geostrategy.

Balancing Power and Influence. The United States must formulate specific policies to offset, co-opt, and/or control these states to preserve and promote vital American interests. This involves conceptualizing a comprehensive geostrategy that establishes the interconnection between specific U.S. policies on a global scale. The three grand imperatives of imperial geostrategy are to prevent collusion and maintain security dependence among the vassals, to keep tributaries pliant and protected, and to keep the barbarians from coming together.

4. Europe: America's Democratic Bridgehead

Europe also serves as the springboard for the progressive expansion of democracy deeper into Eurasia.

Natural Alliance. Europe and America share common values, a similar religious heritage, and democratic political systems, making Europe a natural ally for the United States. Europe's pioneering efforts in integrating nation-states into a shared supranational union also serve as a model for postnational organization.

Geopolitical Significance. Europe is America's essential geopolitical bridgehead on the Eurasian continent. The Atlantic alliance entrenches American political influence and military power directly on the Eurasian mainland. Without close transatlantic ties, America's primacy in Eurasia would diminish.

Challenges to European Unity. A truly European "Europe" does not yet exist. Western Europe remains largely an American protectorate, and there is a decline in Europe's internal vitality. The political momentum for Europe's unification has waned, and the European cause is increasingly sustained by bureaucratic momentum rather than a sense of mission. The political momentum for Europe's unification was once driven by three main impulses: the memories of the destructive two world wars, the desire for economic recovery, and the insecurity generated by the Soviet threat.

5. Russia's Geopolitical Identity Crisis

The disintegration late in 1991 of the world's territorially largest state created a "black hole" in the very center of Eurasia.

Post-Soviet Confusion. The collapse of the Soviet Union created a power vacuum in the heart of Eurasia. Russia faces a crisis of identity, grappling with its role as a national state after centuries of imperial expansion. The loss of Ukraine, in particular, has challenged Russia's claim to being a Eurasian empire.

Geostrategic Options. In reaction to the Soviet Union's collapse, three broad geostrategic options have emerged in Russia:

• Priority for a "mature strategic partnership" with America
• Emphasis on the "near abroad" as Russia's central concern
• A counteralliance involving a Eurasian anti-U.S. coalition

The European Option. Russia's only real geostrategic option is to embrace Europe and the transatlantic community. This requires a clear abjuration of the imperial past and acceptance of the enlarging Europe's political and security links with America. The key point to bear in mind is that Russia cannot be in Europe without Ukraine also being in Europe, whereas Ukraine can be in Europe without Russia being in Europe.

6. The Eurasian Balkans: A Zone of Instability

The Eurasian Balkans form the inner core of that large oblong, and they differ from its outer zone in one particularly significant way: they are a power vacuum.

Defining the Region. The Eurasian Balkans, located within the central zone of global instability, are a power vacuum characterized by ethnic conflicts and great-power regional rivalries. This region includes nine countries, such as Kazakstan, Azerbaijan and Afghanistan.

Ethnic and Territorial Disputes. The Eurasian Balkans are an ethnic mosaic with arbitrarily drawn borders. The states in this region suffer from internal difficulties, territorial claims, and ethnic resentments, making them vulnerable to external conflicts.

Competing Interests. The region is a battleground for the competing interests of Russia, Turkey, and Iran, each driven by historical ambitions and the prospect of economic benefits. The world's energy consumption is bound to vastly increase over the next two or three decades.

7. China's Regional Ambitions and America's Response

China is already a significant regional power and is likely to entertain wider aspirations, given its history as a major power and its view of the Chinese state as the global center.

China's Rise. China is emerging as a major regional power with potential global aspirations. Its economic momentum and military power are altering the geopolitical distribution of power in Asia. The rise of a "Greater China" will inevitably impact the American position in the Far East.

Managing China's Influence. The most appealing outcome would be to co-opt a democratizing and free-marketing China into a larger Asian regional framework of cooperation. However, if China does not democratize, the United States must carefully manage its relationship with China to avoid conflict and maintain regional stability.

Balancing Act. Accommodation with China will require accepting a Chinese sphere of influence, while also retaining an American presence in South Korea to maintain stability in the American-Japanese-Korean triangular security relationship. The most appealing outcome would be to co-opt a democratizing and free-marketing China into a larger Asian regional framework of cooperation.

8. Japan's Global Role and the U.S. Alliance

As one of the very top economic powers in the world, Japan clearly possesses the potential for the exercise of first-class political power.

Japan's Potential. Japan is a major economic power with the potential for significant political influence. However, it has largely eschewed aspirations for regional domination, preferring to operate under American protection.

Maintaining the Alliance. The American-Japanese alliance is crucial for maintaining stability in the Far East. America must carefully nurture this relationship, as any significant reduction in political ties would impact the region's stability.

Defining Japan's Role. As Japan seeks to define a global role for itself, America must manage the regional consequences of the inevitable reduction in Japan's acquiescence in its status as an American protectorate. The key is to channel Japanese energy in the international direction and to steer Chinese power into a regional accommodation.

9. A Trans-Eurasian Security System is the Long-Term Goal

The ultimate objective of American policy should be benign and visionary: to shape a truly cooperative global community, in keeping with long-range trends and with the fundamental interests of humankind.

Vision for the Future. The ultimate objective of American policy should be to shape a truly cooperative global community. This involves transforming American global power into increasingly institutionalized global cooperation.

Preventing Collusion. The three grand imperatives of imperial geostrategy are to prevent collusion and maintain security dependence among the vassals, to keep tributaries pliant and protected, and to keep the barbarians from coming together.

Building a Security System. The long-term goal is to create a trans-Eurasian security system that encompasses both Europe and Russia. This requires a wise and firm Western posture, with America and Europe offering Russia a special treaty or charter with NATO and exploring the shaping of an eventual transcontinental system of security and cooperation.

Last updated: May 5, 2025