The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order

1. Civilizations, Not Ideologies, Define the New World Order

The central theme of this book is that culture and cultural identities, which at the broadest level are civilization identities, are shaping the patterns of cohesion, disintegration, and conflict in the post-Cold War world.

Beyond Ideologies: The post-Cold War world is not defined by ideological or economic differences, but by cultural identities, with civilizations as the broadest level of these identities. This shift marks a departure from the Cold War paradigm, where political and economic systems were the primary drivers of global politics.

• Civilizations are cultural entities defined by shared language, history, religion, customs, and institutions.
• People identify with cultural groups, including tribes, ethnic groups, religious communities, nations, and civilizations.
• The most important conflicts will occur between nations and groups of different civilizations.

Civilizations as the New Actors: Nation-states remain important, but their behavior is increasingly shaped by cultural preferences, commonalities, and differences. The world is now divided into seven or eight major civilizations, each with its own unique characteristics and values.

• The rivalry of superpowers is replaced by the clash of civilizations.
• Local politics is the politics of ethnicity; global politics is the politics of civilizations.
• The most dangerous enmities occur across the fault lines between the world’s major civilizations.

A Multipolar, Multicivilizational World: For the first time in history, global politics is both multipolar and multicivilizational. This new reality requires a shift in how we understand international relations, moving beyond the simplistic divisions of the past.

• The most important groupings of states are no longer the three blocs of the Cold War.
• Non-Western societies are developing their economic wealth and asserting their own cultural values.
• The international system of the twenty-first century will contain at least six major powers from five very different civilizations.

2. The West's Power is Fading, Non-Western Cultures are Rising

The balance of power among civilizations is shifting: the West is declining in relative influence; Asian civilizations are expanding their economic, military, and political strength; Islam is exploding demographically with destabilizing consequences for Muslim countries and their neighbors; and non-Western civilizations generally are reaffirming the value of their own cultures.

Shifting Power Dynamics: The West, while still powerful, is experiencing a relative decline in influence, while non-Western civilizations, particularly in Asia and the Islamic world, are gaining strength. This shift is reshaping the global balance of power.

• The West's share of global economic product and military manpower is decreasing.
• Asian civilizations are expanding their economic, military, and political strength.
• Islam is experiencing a demographic boom with destabilizing consequences.

Resurgence of Non-Western Cultures: Non-Western societies are increasingly asserting their own cultural values and rejecting those imposed by the West. This resurgence is a reaction to centuries of Western dominance.

• Non-Western societies are reaffirming the value of their own cultures.
• The revitalization of religion throughout much of the world is reinforcing cultural differences.
• Non-Western societies are developing their economic wealth and creating the basis for enhanced military power and political influence.

The End of Western Dominance: The era of Western dominance is coming to an end, and the world is moving toward a more multipolar and multicivilizational order. This shift requires a new understanding of global politics and a willingness to accept the diversity of human cultures.

• The West is and will remain for years to come the most powerful civilization.
• Yet its power relative to that of other civilizations is declining.
• A central axis of post-Cold War world politics is the interaction of Western power and culture with the power and culture of non-Western civilizations.

3. Modernization Does Not Equal Westernization

Modernization is distinct from Westernization and is producing neither a universal civilization in any meaningful sense nor the Westernization of non-Western societies.

Modernization vs. Westernization: Modernization, involving industrialization, urbanization, and increased literacy, is distinct from Westernization, which involves adopting Western values, institutions, and culture. Many non-Western societies are modernizing without Westernizing.

• Modernization is a product of the expansion of scientific and engineering knowledge.
• Westernization is the adoption of Western values, institutions, and culture.
• Modernization does not necessarily mean Westernization.

The Myth of Universal Civilization: The idea of a universal civilization, often equated with Western culture, is a myth. While some common values and institutions exist across societies, fundamental differences persist.

• The concept of a universal civilization is a distinctive product of Western civilization.
• The spread of Western consumption patterns and popular culture does not create a universal civilization.
• The most important differences among human groups concern their values, beliefs, institutions, and social structures, not their physical size, head shapes, and skin colors.

Responses to the West: Non-Western societies respond to the West in various ways: rejectionism, Kemalism (embracing both modernization and Westernization), and reformism (embracing modernization while preserving indigenous culture).

• Rejectionism involves rejecting both modernization and Westernization.
• Kemalism involves embracing both modernization and Westernization.
• Reformism involves embracing modernization while preserving indigenous culture.

4. The West vs. The Rest: A Clash of Values and Power

The West’s universalist pretensions increasingly bring it into conflict with other civilizations, most seriously with Islam and China.

Western Universalism: The West, particularly the United States, often promotes its values as universal, leading to conflict with other civilizations that do not share those values. This universalism is seen by many non-Westerners as a form of cultural imperialism.

• The West attempts to assert its values and to protect its interests.
• Non-Western societies confront a choice: emulate the West or resist it.
• A central axis of post-Cold War world politics is the interaction of Western power and culture with the power and culture of non-Western civilizations.

Clash of Values: The West's emphasis on individualism, democracy, and human rights often clashes with the values of other civilizations, such as the emphasis on community, authority, and social harmony. These differences in values are a major source of conflict.

• The West’s universalist pretensions increasingly bring it into conflict with other civilizations.
• The West’s universalist pretensions increasingly bring it into conflict with other civilizations, most seriously with Islam and China.
• The West’s universalist pretensions increasingly bring it into conflict with other civilizations, most seriously with Islam and China.

Power and Culture: The West's attempts to impose its values are often seen as a form of cultural domination, leading to resentment and resistance from non-Western societies. The West's declining power makes it increasingly difficult to impose its will on others.

• The West won the world not by the superiority of its ideas or values or religion but rather by its superiority in applying organized violence.
• Westerners often forget this fact; non-Westerners never do.
• As the West attempts to assert its values and to protect its interests, non-Western societies confront a choice.

5. Islam and Asia: Challenger Civilizations

A central axis of post-Cold War world politics is thus the interaction of Western power and culture with the power and culture of non-Western civilizations.

The Islamic Resurgence: Islam is experiencing a major resurgence, marked by a renewed commitment to Islamic values and a rejection of Western influence. This resurgence is fueled by demographic growth, social mobilization, and a desire for cultural authenticity.

• The Islamic Resurgence is a broad intellectual, cultural, social, and political movement prevalent throughout the Islamic world.
• It involves the intensification of religious consciousness and the rise of fundamentalist movements.
• It has reinforced the differences among religions.

The Asian Affirmation: East Asian societies are experiencing rapid economic growth and are increasingly asserting their own cultural values. This affirmation is a response to Western dominance and a belief in the superiority of Asian culture.

• East Asian economic success has its source in East Asian culture.
• Non-Western societies, particularly in East Asia, are developing their economic wealth and creating the basis for enhanced military power and political influence.
• As their power and self-confidence increase, non-Western societies increasingly assert their own cultural values and reject those “imposed” on them by the West.

Challenger Civilizations: Both Islam and Asia are challenging the West's dominance, each in its own way. Islam is driven by a desire for cultural and religious authenticity, while Asia is driven by economic and political ambition.

• The Islamic challenge is manifest in the pervasive cultural, social, and political resurgence of Islam in the Muslim world and the accompanying rejection of Western values and institutions.
• The Asian challenge is manifest in all the East Asian civilizations—Sinic, Japanese, Buddhist, and Muslim—and emphasizes their cultural differences from the West.
• Both Asians and Muslims stress the superiority of their cultures to Western culture.

6. Fault Line Wars: The New Battlegrounds

The most pervasive, important, and dangerous conflicts will not be between social classes, rich and poor, or other economically defined groups, but between peoples belonging to different cultural entities.

Micro-Level Conflicts: Fault line wars are local conflicts between groups from different civilizations, often involving disputes over territory, resources, or identity. These conflicts are particularly prevalent along the borders of the Islamic world.

• Tribal wars and ethnic conflicts will occur within civilizations.
• Violence between states and groups from different civilizations, however, carries with it the potential for escalation as other states and groups from these civilizations rally to the support of their “kin countries.”
• The most dangerous cultural conflicts are those along the fault lines between civilizations.

Characteristics of Fault Line Wars: These conflicts are often protracted, violent, and difficult to resolve. They are fueled by deep-seated cultural and religious differences and often involve ethnic cleansing and other atrocities.

• Fault line wars are protracted conflicts.
• They are difficult to resolve through negotiations and compromise.
• They tend to produce large numbers of deaths and refugees.

Religion as a Defining Factor: Religion is a central defining characteristic of fault line wars, with many conflicts occurring between Muslims and non-Muslims. These conflicts are often seen as struggles for survival and identity.

• Of all the objective elements which define civilizations, the most important usually is religion.
• People who share ethnicity and language but differ in religion may slaughter each other.
• The most dangerous cultural conflicts are those along the fault lines between civilizations.

7. Kin-Country Syndrome: Civilizational Loyalty in Conflict

At the local level fault line wars, largely between Muslims and non-Muslims, generate “kin-country rallying,” the threat of broader escalation, and hence efforts by core states to halt these wars.

Civilizational Loyalty: In fault line wars, groups often seek support from their "kin countries," states that share their civilization. This "kin-country syndrome" can escalate local conflicts into broader civilizational clashes.

• Societies sharing cultural affinities cooperate with each other.
• Efforts to shift societies from one civilization to another are unsuccessful.
• Countries group themselves around the lead or core states of their civilization.

Levels of Involvement: Fault line wars often involve multiple levels of participants, from primary combatants to secondary and tertiary supporters. These levels of involvement can complicate efforts to resolve conflicts.

• Primary participants are those directly involved in the fighting.
• Secondary participants are states directly related to the primary parties.
• Tertiary participants are states with civilizational ties to the primary parties.

The Role of Diasporas: Diaspora communities often play a significant role in fault line wars, providing financial, material, and political support to their kin in conflict zones. This support can further escalate and prolong conflicts.

• Diasporas are often more committed to the cause than the people in the home country.
• They provide money, weapons, and volunteers to their kin.
• They also lobby their host governments on behalf of their kin.

8. Core States: The New Centers of Global Order

A civilization-based world order is emerging: societies sharing cultural affinities cooperate with each other; efforts to shift societies from one civilization to another are unsuccessful; and countries group themselves around the lead or core states of their civilization.

Core States as Centers of Power: In the emerging world order, core states, the most powerful and culturally central states within a civilization, are becoming the new poles of attraction and repulsion. These states play a key role in shaping the political and economic landscape of their respective civilizations.

• Core states are the lead or core states of their civilization.
• They are the most powerful and culturally central states within a civilization.
• They are the sources of order within civilizations.

Concentric Circles of Influence: States within a civilization often group themselves in concentric circles around their core state, reflecting their degree of identification with and integration into that civilization. This pattern of influence is shaping the new world order.

• Member states are countries fully identified culturally with one civilization.
• Lone countries lack cultural commonality with other societies.
• Cleft countries have sizable groups of people from different civilizations.

The Absence of Core States: Some civilizations, such as Islam and Africa, lack a single, recognized core state, which can lead to instability and conflict. The absence of a core state makes it more difficult to resolve conflicts within and between these civilizations.

• Islam lacks a core state, which poses major problems for both Muslim and non-Muslim societies.
• Latin America has several states, Brazil, Mexico, Venezuela, and Argentina, which cooperate in and compete for leadership.
• Sub-Saharan Africa could cohere into a distinct civilization, with South Africa possibly being its core state.

9. The West Must Renew Itself or Decline

The survival of the West depends on Americans reaffirming their Western identity and Westerners accepting their civilization as unique not universal and uniting to renew and preserve it against challenges from non-Western societies.

The West at a Crossroads: The West is at a critical juncture, facing internal challenges and external threats. To survive and thrive, the West must renew its commitment to its core values and institutions.

• The West is and will remain for years to come the most powerful civilization.
• Yet its power relative to that of other civilizations is declining.
• The survival of the West depends on Americans reaffirming their Western identity.

Internal Challenges: The West faces internal challenges, including moral decline, cultural fragmentation, and political disunity. These challenges threaten the West's ability to maintain its position in the world.

• The West is increasingly concerned with its internal problems and needs.
• It confronts slow economic growth, stagnating populations, unemployment, huge government deficits, a declining work ethic, low savings rates, and in many countries including the United States social disintegration, drugs, and crime.
• The West is increasingly concerned with its internal problems and needs.

The Need for Renewal: To counter these challenges, the West must reaffirm its unique identity, strengthen its institutions, and promote its values. This renewal is essential for the West to maintain its influence in the world.

• Westerners must accept their civilization as unique not universal.
• Westerners must unite to renew and preserve it against challenges from non-Western societies.
• The West must maintain the economic and military power necessary to protect its interests.

10. The Future: A Multipolar, Multicivilizational World

Avoidance of a global war of civilizations depends on world leaders accepting and cooperating to maintain the multicivilizational character of global politics.

A World of Multiple Civilizations: The future will be characterized by a multipolar, multicivilizational world, where different civilizations coexist and interact. This new reality requires a shift in how we understand global politics.

• Global politics has become multipolar and multicivilizational.
• Cultural commonalities and differences shape the interests, antagonisms, and associations of states.
• The key issues on the international agenda involve differences among civilizations.

The Need for Cooperation: To avoid a global war of civilizations, world leaders must accept and cooperate to maintain the multicivilizational character of global politics. This requires a willingness to engage with other civilizations on their own terms.

• Avoidance of a global war of civilizations depends on world leaders accepting and cooperating to maintain the multicivilizational character of global politics.
• The world is indeed anarchical, rife with tribal and nationality conflicts, but the conflicts that pose the greatest dangers for stability are those between states or groups from different civilizations.
• The predominant patterns of political and economic development differ from civilization to civilization.

A New Era of Global Politics: The post-Cold War world is a world of multiple civilizations, each with its own unique values, interests, and aspirations. Understanding and navigating this complex landscape is essential for maintaining peace and stability in the twenty-first century.

• Power is shifting from the long predominant West to non-Western civilizations.
• The local conflicts most likely to escalate into broader wars are those between groups and states from different civilizations.
• The key issues on the international agenda involve differences among civilizations.

Last updated: January 28, 2025