The Next 100 Years

1. The American Age is Defined by Unchallenged Power and Geographic Advantage

The inherent power of the United States coupled with its geographic position makes the United States the pivotal actor of the twenty- first century.

Unmatched Dominance. The United States possesses unparalleled economic, military, and political power, dwarfing any potential challenger. Its economic output surpasses the combined GDP of the next four largest economies, and its military dominance extends to control over all the world's oceans. This power imbalance makes the U.S. the central player in the 21st century.

Strategic Geography. Unlike European powers historically focused on the North Atlantic, the U.S. benefits from its unique position bordering both the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. This allows it to control global trade routes and project power across both hemispheres, solidifying its role as the center of gravity in the international system.

American-Centric World. The world now pivots around the United States, not just due to its power, but also because of a fundamental shift in global trade patterns. The rise of transpacific trade has diminished the singular importance of the North Atlantic, further cementing North America, and therefore the United States, as the dominant global force.

2. The U.S.-Jihadist War Was About Disrupting, Not Winning

The United States doesn’t need to win wars. It needs to simply disrupt things so the other side can’t build up sufficient strength to challenge it.

Strategic Disruption. The U.S. response to 9/11 was not aimed at achieving a decisive victory in the Islamic world, but rather at disrupting and destabilizing the region to prevent the emergence of a unified Islamic empire. The goal was to set the Islamic world against itself, ensuring no single entity could challenge American power.

Limited Objectives. The U.S. interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq, while appearing chaotic and costly, were ultimately minor affairs in the context of American power. The objective was not to impose order, but to maintain a regional balance and block the rise of any potential hegemon.

Enduring Chaos. The U.S.-jihadist conflict is a regional spasm resulting from the removal of a force field, not a coherent movement. Ethnic and religious divisions within the Islamic world mean that even without American intervention, no stable political base will emerge, ensuring continued instability and preventing the rise of a unified challenge to U.S. dominance.

3. Demographic Shifts and Technology Reshape Societies

The single most important demographic change in the world right now is the dramatic decline everywhere in birth rates.

Global Population Bust. The world is experiencing a dramatic decline in birth rates, leading to an end of the population explosion and significant labor shortages in advanced industrial countries. This demographic shift is transforming the structure of families, the role of women, and the entire global system.

Culture Wars Intensify. Declining birth rates and longer lifespans for women are challenging traditional family structures, leading to intense social and political conflict between traditionalists and those seeking to redefine the family, women, and sexuality. This conflict is a global phenomenon, impacting societies across different religions and cultures.

American Cultural Hegemony. The United States, with its unique blend of traditional values and radical innovation, is at the forefront of these social transformations. The rise of computer technology, with its emphasis on pragmatism and functionality, is further reshaping American culture and contributing to its global influence.

4. Geopolitical Fault Lines Indicate Future Conflicts

The twenty- first century will see even more war than the twentieth century, but the wars will be much less catastrophic, because of both technological changes and the nature of the geopolitical challenge.

Pacific Basin. The imbalance of power in the Pacific, with the U.S. Navy dominating trade routes crucial to Asian economies, creates a potential for conflict. China and Japan, dependent on access to the sea, may seek to challenge U.S. hegemony, leading to confrontations over sea lanes and economic policies.

Eurasia. Russia's attempt to reassert its sphere of influence in the former Soviet Union, particularly in Ukraine and the Baltics, will inevitably clash with U.S. interests and NATO. This new cold war could lead to flash points along Russia's western frontier.

The Muslim World. The instability in the Islamic world, coupled with the potential for a nation-state like Turkey to emerge as a regional power, poses a challenge to U.S. interests. Turkey's strategic location and growing economic and military strength make it a key player in the region.

5. China's Economic Rise Faces Inherent Instability

Far from being a challenger, China is a country the United States will be trying to bolster and hold together as a counterweight to the Russians.

Geographic Isolation. China's physical geography, surrounded by impassable terrain and wastelands, isolates it from the rest of the world. This isolation, coupled with a concentration of population in the eastern third of the country, limits its ability to expand its influence.

Economic Imbalances. China's economic growth has created vast inequalities between the prosperous coastal regions and the impoverished interior, leading to instability and social tensions. This inherent instability makes it unlikely that China will become a major global power.

Internal Political Challenges. China's political system, based on communism and state control, is inherently unstable. The government's attempts to balance economic growth with political control will lead to internal conflicts and potentially fragmentation.

6. Russia's Resurgence Aims to Reestablish a Sphere of Influence

The Russians can’t avoid trying to reassert power, and the United States can’t avoid trying to resist.

Geopolitical Imperative. Russia's fundamental weakness lies in its vulnerable borders, particularly in the northwest. To ensure its national security, Russia must reestablish a sphere of influence in the former Soviet Union, creating a buffer zone against potential threats.

Energy as Leverage. Russia's economic strategy focuses on exporting natural resources, particularly energy, giving it leverage over Europe and neighboring countries. This dependence on Russian energy will be a key factor in shaping Russia's relationship with Europe.

Confrontation with the West. Russia's attempt to reassert its influence in the former Soviet Union, particularly in Ukraine and the Baltics, will inevitably clash with U.S. interests and NATO. This confrontation will define the next phase of world history.

7. A Labor Crisis in 2030 Will Force Immigration Reform

The entire global system has been built since 1750 on the expectation of continually expanding populations.

Demographic Shift. By 2050, advanced industrial countries will be losing population at a dramatic rate, creating a major labor shortage. This will force countries to compete for increasingly scarce immigrants.

Economic Imperative. The United States, facing a labor shortage, will need to attract immigrants to maintain its economic growth. This will lead to a shift in immigration policy, from limiting entry to actively recruiting immigrants.

Social Transformation. The influx of immigrants will change the cultural character of the United States, leading to social and political tensions. However, the United States' ability to absorb immigrants will give it a competitive advantage over other countries.

8. A Space War in the Mid-21st Century Will Redefine Global Power

The twenty- first century will see even more war than the twentieth century, but the wars will be much less catastrophic, because of both technological changes and the nature of the geopolitical challenge.

Space as the High Ground. Control of space will become essential for global power, enabling countries to monitor and control events on the surface of the earth. The development of space-based weapons systems will transform warfare.

Battle Stars and Hypersonic Weapons. The United States will develop a system of Battle Stars, space-based platforms controlling hypersonic aircraft and missiles, giving it the ability to strike any target on earth in a matter of minutes. This will revolutionize warfare and give the U.S. unparalleled military power.

Vulnerability in Space. The reliance on space-based systems will create a new vulnerability. The destruction of the Battle Stars will cripple the U.S. warfighting system, highlighting the importance of defending space assets.

9. By 2080, a Resurgent Mexico Will Challenge the U.S. Heartland

By 2080 I expect there to be a serious confrontation between the United States and an increasingly powerful and assertive Mexico.

Mexican Economic Growth. Mexico, currently the fifteenth-largest economy in the world, will continue to rise in the rankings, becoming one of the major economic powers by the late twenty-first century. This economic growth will fuel its assertiveness on the world stage.

Demographic Shift in the Borderlands. The great migration north, encouraged by the United States, will shift the population balance in the old Mexican Cession, leading to a predominantly Mexican population in much of the region. This will be viewed by the Mexican government as a rectification of historical defeats.

Confrontation Looms. By 2080, the United States will face a serious confrontation with an increasingly powerful and assertive Mexico. This confrontation may have unforeseen consequences for the United States and will likely not end by 2100.

Last updated: February 24, 2025