The Nones

1. The rise of the "nones" is reshaping America's religious landscape

In 2018, the GSS indicated that the "nones" were now the same size statistically as Roman Catholics and evangelical Protestants, with simple projections suggesting that the nones will likely be the largest religious group in America inside a decade.

Dramatic shift in religiosity. The percentage of Americans identifying as religiously unaffiliated has skyrocketed from just 5% in 1972 to nearly 25% in 2018. This growth has been particularly rapid since the early 1990s, with the "nones" now rivaling evangelical Protestants and Catholics as the largest religious groups in the United States.

Decline of traditional faiths. While the nones have grown, most other religious traditions have seen declines:

• Mainline Protestants: From 30% in 1970s to 10% in 2018
• Catholics: From 27% to 23% since 2000
• Evangelical Protestants: From 30% in 1993 to 21.5% in 2018

This seismic shift is reshaping American culture, politics, and social dynamics, with far-reaching implications for the future of religion in the United States.

2. Secularization theory explains the decline in religious affiliation

According to this simple model, the share of American citizens in the United States who should rate religion as very important is less than 5 percent based on the country's economic prosperity.

Education and prosperity drive secularization. Secularization theory, proposed by sociologists like Max Weber, argues that as societies become more educated and economically prosperous, they tend to move away from religion. This pattern is clearly visible in most developed European nations, where church attendance and religious affiliation have plummeted.

American exceptionalism challenged. The United States has long been an outlier to secularization theory, maintaining high levels of religiosity despite its economic development. However, recent trends suggest that America may be experiencing a delayed secularization:

• Rising education levels correlate with increased religious disaffiliation
• Younger generations are significantly less religious than older cohorts
• The rapid growth of the nones aligns with secularization predictions

While the U.S. remains more religious than many European countries, the data indicates it may be following a similar, if delayed, trajectory towards secularization.

3. Social desirability bias masks true rates of religious disaffiliation

In essence, half of the people who said they attend church once a week lied about it.

Overreporting of religious behavior. Social desirability bias leads many Americans to exaggerate their religious involvement when surveyed. Studies comparing self-reported church attendance with actual headcounts reveal significant discrepancies:

• In one county, 35.8% claimed weekly attendance, but only 19.6% actually attended
• National surveys likely overestimate religious participation by 10-15 percentage points

Declining stigma of non-religion. As social norms shift, people feel more comfortable admitting their true religious (or non-religious) status:

• Older generations increasingly identify as nones in surveys
• Younger people are more likely to openly claim non-religious identities

This suggests that the rise of the nones may be partly due to increased honesty about religious disaffiliation, rather than solely a result of new deconversions.

4. The internet and politics accelerate the growth of religious nones

It seems possible that this dramatic increase in disaffiliation is due, at least in part, to a backlash against conservative evangelical politics.

Online community for doubters. The internet has provided spaces for those questioning their faith to find like-minded individuals and access information challenging religious beliefs. This has broken the "spiral of silence" that previously isolated religious doubters, particularly in conservative communities.

Political polarization drives disaffiliation. The strong alignment of white evangelical Christianity with conservative Republican politics has alienated many moderates and liberals:

• In 1978, 50% of white weekly churchgoers were Democrats; today, only 25% are
• 93% of white Protestants attend churches where Trump's approval rating exceeds the national average
• Liberals are 4 times more likely than conservatives to be religiously unaffiliated

This political-religious fusion has led many left-leaning individuals to feel unwelcome in churches, accelerating their disaffiliation.

5. Changing family structures contribute to religious disaffiliation

Looked at broadly, half of all atheists and agnostics and more than 45 percent of nothing in particulars have not seen their fortieth birthday.

Delayed life milestones impact religiosity. Traditional triggers for increased religious involvement, such as marriage and having children, are occurring later in life or not at all for many Americans:

• Married adults: 74% in 1972 vs. 42.5% in 2018
• Average age of first marriage: 20 for women in 1960 vs. 28 in 2018

Family status correlates with affiliation. The data shows clear links between family structure and religious involvement:

• 35% of unmarried, childless adults are religiously unaffiliated
• Only 16% of married adults with children are unaffiliated

As more Americans remain single or childless into their 30s and 40s, they are less likely to return to religious communities, contributing to the growth of the nones.

6. Not all nones are created equal: Atheists, agnostics, and "nothing in particulars"

To translate that to actual numbers—the CCES indicates that twenty million more Americans are religiously unaffiliated than the GSS.

Diverse non-religious identities. The religiously unaffiliated can be broadly categorized into three groups:

1. Atheists (5.7% of population): Firmly reject belief in God
2. Agnostics (5.7%): Uncertain about God's existence
3. Nothing in particulars (19.9%): Unaffiliated but not necessarily non-believers

Distinct demographic profiles. These groups differ significantly in their characteristics:

• Education: 44% of atheists have a bachelor's degree vs. 20% of nothing in particulars
• Gender: 60% of atheists are male vs. 50% of nothing in particulars
• Politics: Atheists are the most liberal, nothing in particulars are moderate

Understanding these distinctions is crucial for accurately assessing the religious landscape and developing targeted outreach strategies.

7. The "nothing in particulars" represent the largest mission field

If a Christian is trying to be strategic about reaching out to those without a religious affiliation, the data tells a clear story: trying to convert atheists is going to end in failure ninety-nine times out of a hundred.

Most receptive to religion. Among the nones, the "nothing in particulars" show the most potential for religious reengagement:

• 35% say religion is somewhat or very important in their lives
• 20% attend church at least once a year
• 16.4% became Christians over a 4-year study period

Fastest-growing group. Nothing in particulars have increased by 5.6 percentage points in the past decade, now comprising 20% of the U.S. population.

Socioeconomic challenges. This group faces significant struggles:

• Lowest education levels of any religious group (24% with bachelor's degree)
• 60% earn less than $50,000 per year
• Less politically and socially engaged than other nones

Churches seeking to reverse the trend of disaffiliation should focus their efforts on reaching out to nothing in particulars, who may benefit most from religious community support.

8. Globalization and secularization are unstoppable forces

To try to stop globalization by imposing tariffs on imported goods is the functional equivalent of attempts to stop secularization by posting the Ten Commandments in more American courthouses.

Parallel trends reshaping society. Both globalization and secularization are fundamental shifts that cannot be easily reversed:

• Globalization: Transformed manufacturing, led to wage stagnation
• Secularization: Dramatically altered religious landscape

Futile resistance. Efforts to combat these trends often prove ineffective:

• Protectionist policies fail to bring back manufacturing jobs
• Traditional religious outreach methods struggle to stem the tide of disaffiliation

Adaptation is key. Rather than fighting these unstoppable forces, churches and society must learn to navigate the new reality they create.

9. Churches must adapt to the new reality of religious disaffiliation

If Christians want to seek and save the lost, why would some of them go out of their way to alienate a third of the population of the United States?

Listen to disaffiliation stories. Churches need to understand why people leave:

• Abuse and trauma within religious institutions
• Feeling unwelcome due to sexuality or life choices
• Intellectual doubts left unaddressed

Depoliticize religious spaces. The strong association between conservative politics and Christianity alienates many potential churchgoers:

• 16 of 20 largest white Protestant denominations became more Republican from 2008-2018
• Politically charged social media posts by pastors discourage diverse attendance

Focus on "nothing in particulars". This group represents the most promising opportunity for religious reengagement:

• More open to religious ideas than atheists or agnostics
• Often facing socioeconomic challenges that churches could address
• Comprise a large and growing segment of the population

By listening, depoliticizing, and targeting outreach efforts, churches can better navigate the changing religious landscape and remain relevant in an increasingly secular society.

Last updated: August 29, 2024