The Plane That Wasn't There

1. MH370's Disappearance Was Unprecedented and Baffling

When the Boeing 777-200ER disappeared shortly after midnight, local time, on March 8, 2014, it did something that no passenger jet had ever done before: it stayed missing.

A unique mystery. Unlike most airline crashes where the location and evidence are quickly found, MH370 vanished without a trace. Despite extensive searches costing millions, not a single piece of physical evidence was found for months, making the case fundamentally strange and defying typical accident scenarios.
Beyond the norm. Most loss-of-control accidents are catastrophic, unfolding rapidly and resulting in impact within minutes and a small radius. MH370's disappearance was different; the mystery was not how or why it crashed, but where it went and if it crashed in the expected way.
A physical event. Despite the baffling nature of the disappearance and the conflicting information, the author emphasizes that it was a real physical event with a comprehensible explanation, even if the pieces didn't initially fit neatly together.

2. Initial Radar Showed a Deliberate Turn Back Towards Malaysia

What the radar showed was that after MH370 disappeared from air traffic control screens it did not crash. Instead, it pulled a 180-degree turn and headed back to the southwest, flying high and fast across the Malay Peninsula and over the island of Penang.

Going dark. After the final "Good Night" transmission and disappearing from civilian ADS-B and radar near IGARI, MH370 remained visible to military primary radar. This revealed it executed a sharp turn back across Malaysia and up the Malacca Strait before disappearing from military radar an hour later.
Intentional action. The plane's subsequent flight path – a zig-zag series of waypoint-to-waypoint segments flown quickly – indicated it was under the control of someone who knew how to operate and navigate commercial aircraft, suggesting a deliberate act rather than a simple accident or incapacitation.
Initial suspect. The rapid sequence of events between the last communication and the turn led investigators to initially suspect the flight crew, as it seemed unlikely hijackers could gain control, disable communications, and reprogram the plane so quickly without a distress signal.

3. Satellite Timing Data (BTO) Defined Arcs of Possible Locations

When Inmarsat pinged it at 0:19, the amount of time it took the plane to reply allowed Inmarsat to calculate its distance from the satellite, just as if it was holding a taut piece of string.

Electronic handshakes. MH370's satellite communication system, even when not actively used for messages, exchanged automatic hourly "handshake" signals with an Inmarsat satellite (3F-1). These pings were logged by Inmarsat.
Measuring distance. The Burst Timing Offset (BTO) parameter, logged by Inmarsat, measures the time delay between the satellite's signal and the plane's response. This delay is directly related to the distance between the plane and the satellite.
Defining arcs. By calculating the distance at the time of each handshake, Inmarsat could determine that the plane must have been located somewhere along a specific arc centered on the satellite's position. These "ping rings" provided a range of possible locations at given times.

4. Satellite Frequency Data (BFO) Analysis Strongly Pointed South

By knowing what factors affect the BFO, Inmarsat was able to calculate the values they would expect to see if a plane flew to the north versus what they would see if it flew to the south.

Doppler effect clue. Inmarsat also logged the Burst Frequency Offset (BFO), which measures the shift in signal frequency caused by the relative motion of the plane and the satellite (the Doppler effect). This shift varies depending on the plane's speed, direction, and location relative to the satellite.
North vs. South. Inmarsat scientists developed a method to calculate the expected BFO values for hypothetical northern versus southern flight paths. The observed BFO values from MH370's handshakes closely matched the values predicted for a southern route.
Mathematical conclusion. Based primarily on this BFO analysis, Inmarsat and the AAIB concluded that MH370 flew along the southern corridor and ended in the remote southern Indian Ocean, leading Malaysian authorities to declare the plane lost with no survivors based solely on this mathematical determination.

5. The Striking Absence of Debris Contradicts a Typical Ocean Crash

Our experience tells us that in water incidents, where the aircraft has gone down, there is always something.

Expected wreckage. When large passenger jets crash into the ocean, they typically generate thousands of pieces of floating debris. Examples like Air France 447 and AirAsia 8501 resulted in extensive debris fields found relatively quickly, even in remote locations.
Drift modeling. Ocean current analysis suggested that if MH370 crashed in the presumed southern Indian Ocean location, debris should have drifted eastward and potentially washed up on the coast of Western Australia within months.
Unexplained void. Despite extensive surface searches and vigilant beachcombers, no confirmed debris from MH370 was found for over a year. This persistent lack of physical evidence is highly unusual for an ocean crash and raises significant doubts about the official southern Indian Ocean scenario.

6. Conflict Between Satellite Data Suggests Deliberate Manipulation

Long and short, it was very hard to come up with any routes that matched the BTO and BFO data and made any kind of sense from the standpoint of how planes are actually flown.

Data inconsistency. While BTO data suggested the plane flew a relatively straight path at consistent speeds, the BFO data implied a slower, more meandering, or curving trajectory. Investigators struggled to reconcile these two sets of data into a single, plausible flight path.
Ignoring the conflict. The official search area ultimately combined results from analyses that fit either the BTO or the BFO data, effectively acknowledging the conflict and searching areas hundreds of miles apart, rather than finding a single path that satisfied both.
Hint of tampering. The difficulty in making the BTO and BFO data align, coupled with the lack of debris, led the author and some independent investigators to consider the possibility that the BFO data, which strongly pointed south, might have been deliberately tampered with or "spoofed" to mislead investigators.

7. The Plane's Electronics Bay Was Accessible and Vulnerable

An individual in the avionics bay with access to circuit breakers and the PMAT could potentially disable all communications as well as disable control from the cockpit.

SDU power cycle. Analysis of the raw Inmarsat data revealed that MH370's Satellite Data Unit (SDU) was turned off and then back on over the Malacca Strait, indicating a deliberate action rather than an electrical failure.
Hidden access. The SDU's primary power can only be turned off via an obscure circuit breaker located in the electronics and equipment (E/E) bay. On Boeing 777s, this bay is accessible during flight through an unlocked hatch in the first-class cabin floor.
Commandeering the plane. A Portable Maintenance Access Terminal (PMAT) in the E/E bay can be used to control virtually every function of the plane, potentially disabling cockpit control and communications. This vulnerability, highlighted in a prior thesis, suggests a sophisticated perpetrator could take over the aircraft from outside the cockpit.

8. Ignoring BFO, BTO Data Implies a Northern Route to Kazakhstan

It’s straightforward to draw a straight line on Google Earth that intersects the ping rings at pretty near exactly these speeds.

BTO as the guide. If the BFO data was spoofed, the BTO data remains the most reliable indicator of the plane's path. Analyzing the BTO values and estimated speeds suggests a flight path that is largely straight.
Flying North. Plotting a straight line from MH370's last known radar position that intersects the BTO arcs at speeds consistent with the radar data and later BTO analysis leads the plane on a northern trajectory.
Border hopping. This northern route would have taken MH370 over the Andaman Islands (where radar was off) and then strategically skirted international borders between India, Pakistan, China, and Central Asian countries, a tactic that could help avoid detection by military radar.
Potential destination. Following this BTO-derived path, the plane's final handshake (0:11) would occur over Kazakhstan. A plausible landing site near the final ping arc is the disused Yubileyniy airstrip within Russia's leased Baikonur Cosmodrome, a facility built for self-landing aircraft.

9. A Northern Landing Points Suspicion Towards Russia

If the plane didn’t go south, then the BFO data have to be thrown out, and the BTO data that remain indicate that the plane went to Kazakhstan.

Eliminating possibilities. If the lack of debris rules out a southern ocean crash, and the BFO data is deemed unreliable due to potential spoofing, the BTO data strongly suggests a northern route ending in Kazakhstan.
Kazakhstan's ally. Kazakhstan is a close political and military ally of Russia, led by a president who publicly supported Russia's annexation of Crimea. While Kazakhstan may lack the technical capability for such a sophisticated hijack, Russia does.
Russian capability and motive. Russia possesses advanced aerospace expertise and a track record of complex, clandestine operations using special forces ("active reserve") to achieve strategic goals, as seen in Ukraine. While a specific motive for targeting MH370 remains unknown, Russia's geopolitical actions and rhetoric suggest a willingness to undertake bold, unconventional measures.

10. The MH17 Shootdown Offers a Chilling Parallel

I remember exactly where I was standing the moment that I heard the news that another Malaysia Airlines 777 had gone down, this time over eastern Ukraine. My first thought, after I picked my jaw off the ground, was: Well, that settles it.

Striking coincidences. The loss of two Malaysia Airlines 777s within four months is statistically improbable, especially given the aircraft's safety record. Both incidents also occurred shortly after the US imposed sanctions on Russia, and Russia issued warnings of a "boomerang effect."
Russia's actions. The downing of MH17 over eastern Ukraine by a Russian Buk missile, traced back to a specific Russian military unit, demonstrates Russia's direct involvement in the conflict and a willingness to use lethal force with devastating consequences for civilians.
Command responsibility. The clear evidence linking the MH17 Buk launcher to Russia, despite Moscow's denials, points to Russia's moral and legal responsibility under doctrines like "command responsibility," highlighting a pattern of deniable but attributable actions.

11. The True Motive Remains Elusive, But Actions Provide Clues

Ultimately, rather than assuming that people won’t do certain things because we wouldn’t do the same thing in their shoes, it’s better to leave an open mind and work backwards from what they have actually done.

Motive is secondary. While the "why" remains a mystery, the author argues that establishing motive is not necessary to determine "where" the plane went. If the evidence (lack of debris, BTO data) points away from the official scenario and towards a northern route, then that conclusion stands regardless of a clear motive
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Last updated: June 8, 2025