The Storm Before the Calm

1. America's Cycles: Institutional and Socioeconomic

This is a book that focuses on the underlying process in American history, explaining this moment we are in within the context of our broader history and putting the current passions into context.

Two Major Cycles. American history is shaped by two primary cycles: the institutional cycle, occurring roughly every eighty years, which governs the relationship between the federal government and society; and the socioeconomic cycle, transpiring approximately every fifty years, which alters the dynamics of the American economy and society. These cycles drive periods of crisis, order, and reinvention, reflecting the nation's unique ability to adapt and evolve. Understanding these cycles provides a framework for interpreting current events and anticipating future trends.

Predictable Patterns. These cycles are not random occurrences but rather predictable patterns driven by underlying structural changes. Each cycle begins with problems generated by the previous cycle, leading to a period of political tension and ultimately forcing a change in how things are done. New models emerge to solve these problems, setting the stage for the next cycle.

The American Engine. Unlike other nations where cycles may be unpredictable, the American cycles are frequent and orderly due to the nation's velocity and agility. This is a result of the structure of the United States: its regime, its people, and its land, which create a platform for rapid growth and the ability to manage that growth. These cycles represent the engine driving the United States forward, ensuring its continued dynamism and resilience.

2. Geopolitics: America's Uncomfortable Empire

The United States has become an empire.

Reluctant Empire. The United States has become the preeminent global power, an empire of power and global reach, but it is an empire that is uncomfortable with its role. This new status has placed stresses on the United States that increase institutional, economic, and social pressures. The United States did not become an empire by choice, nor can it abandon the reality of what it is.

Moral Project vs. National Interest. The United States was founded as a moral project, a place where both human rights and the national interest could thrive. The United States has been torn since its founding between these two principles. This tension has intensified with the vast power of the United States and its global impact.

Entanglement vs. Isolation. There is a constant debate between those who want to avoid foreign entanglements and those who believe that constant involvement in the world is necessary to pursue the national interest. This debate has defined American foreign policy historically and continues to shape the nation's approach to global affairs. The United States is learning how to be an empire, creating enormous pressures on the world and on American institutions and the American public.

3. Institutional Cycles: War and Reinvention

Each period begins with a problem generated by the previous cycle, creates a new model from which to draw on American strength, and culminates in that solution playing out its hand and becoming the new problem that has to be solved.

Eighty-Year Shifts. The institutional cycle, which governs the relationship between the federal government and society, transpires approximately every eighty years. These shifts are often triggered by war, revealing weaknesses in the existing institutional structure and necessitating a new system. The Revolutionary War, the Civil War, and World War II each marked the beginning of a new institutional cycle.

The Cycle of Change. Each institutional cycle follows a similar pattern: the existing arrangements no longer work, leading to political tension and ultimately forcing a change in the way things are done. New models emerge and solve the problems, and the country begins a new cycle, which operates until that cycle runs into trouble. This cyclical process ensures that the United States remains adaptable and responsive to changing circumstances.

The Role of War. War has historically been a major driver of institutional change in the United States. The demands of war often require the federal government to expand its powers and responsibilities, leading to a redefinition of its relationship with society. The next institutional cycle is also emerging from war, specifically the war against jihadists and the broader shift in America's role in the global system.

4. Socioeconomic Cycles: From Crisis to Prosperity

It is the tension within the country, the radical differences in culture and outlook, actually become a goad driving the country forward but leaving some behind.

Fifty-Year Rhythms. American society and the American economy follow a rhythm, experiencing a painful and wrenching crisis approximately every fifty years. During these times, policies that had worked for the previous fifty years stop working, leading to economic and social dislocation. A political and cultural crisis arises, and what had been regarded as common sense is discarded.

The Cycle of Transformation. Each socioeconomic cycle goes through a similar process: the characteristics of a current cycle stop being effective, and the model begins to break down. A period of political tension emerges, ultimately forcing a change in the way things are done. New models emerge and solve the problems, and the country begins a new cycle, which operates until that cycle runs into trouble.

Winners and Losers. The tension within the country, the radical differences in culture and outlook, actually become a goad driving the country forward but leaving some behind. Each socioeconomic cycle ends in a period of confidence and prosperity, but this prosperity is not always evenly distributed. The cycles often create winners and losers, leading to social and economic inequality.

5. The 2020s Crisis: A Convergence of Cycles

The current institutional cycle will conclude in a crisis around the mid-2020s, and the socioeconomic cycle will end in a crisis within a few years of that.

Unprecedented Overlap. The current institutional cycle will conclude in a crisis around the mid-2020s, and the socioeconomic cycle will end in a crisis within a few years of that. This is the first time in American history that the two cycles will culminate so close together, practically overlapping. That obviously means that the 2020s will be one of the more difficult periods in American history.

Compounding Instability. The convergence of these two cycles will create a period of intense instability in the United States. The institutional cycle will redefine the relationship of the federal government to itself, while the socioeconomic cycle will shift the dynamic of the American economy and society. This convergence will amplify the challenges facing the nation.

Geopolitical Stress. The crisis of the 2020s will be further compounded by the new and complex role the United States plays in the world. The United States has become the preeminent power in the world, and it doesn’t know if it wants the honor or how to manage it. This frames and intensifies the coming crisis of the 2020s.

6. Technology's Maturation: The End of an Era

In every generation, there were inventions that changed the way men lived, and this created a cycle of transformation for society as a whole.

Core Technologies. Each generation has a core technology that throws off endless applications and businesses. The steam engine and electricity both developed multiple applications that permitted other technologies and that changed the economic and personal landscape. The microchip was the core technology of the Reagan cycle, driving growth and innovation for decades.

The Cycle of Technology. Transformative and core technologies go through four stages: innovation, expansion, maturity, and decline. The microchip has reached its mature stage, with productivity growth from the technology beginning to fade. This maturation is creating an economic challenge, as the United States struggles to find a new core technology to drive growth.

Capital Surplus. The maturation of the microchip economy has led to a capital surplus, with vast amounts of money searching for investment opportunities. This surplus is driving down interest rates and creating a challenge for retirees and those seeking to save for the future. The lack of new investment opportunities is also contributing to economic stagnation.

7. Education's Crossroads: Access and Affordability

The pursuit of happiness defines American culture.

The University as a Battleground. The crisis of the 2020s will revolve around the institutions of education, specifically the universities. The universities have become the center of gravity of the technocracy, and access to these institutions is increasingly limited. This has created a social and economic divide, with the children of the declining industrial class being excluded from the opportunities afforded by a top-tier education.

The Cost of Credentials. The cost of a college education has skyrocketed, making it increasingly difficult for many Americans to afford. Student loan debt has reached staggering levels, creating a financial burden that can cripple graduates for years. This has created a subprime class of students who are struggling to repay their loans and achieve upward mobility.

The Need for Transformation. The universities are in need of transformation. The cost of higher education can no longer be sustained. The problem of cutting costs while increasing capacity and quality is as important a problem as ending the capital shortage under Reagan or unemployment under Roosevelt. The universities must become more accessible and affordable to ensure that all Americans have the opportunity to succeed.

8. The Fourth Institutional Cycle: Intent-Based Governance

The founders were trying to invent a machine that restrained itself, thereby creating a vast terrain in American life that was free from government or politics.

From Expertise to Intent. The fourth institutional cycle will redefine the relationship of the federal government to itself, shifting from a system based on expertise to one based on intent. This will involve devolving initiative to junior administrators and empowering them to act based on a clear understanding of the government's goals. The goal is to create a more flexible and responsive government that is better able to serve the needs of its citizens.

The Military Model. The military model of commander's intent provides a framework for this new approach. The commander lays down his intention to a certain level and then expects subordinates to apply that with awareness of the reality he is facing. This allows for greater flexibility and adaptability in the face of changing circumstances.

Common Sense and Initiative. The new institutional cycle will require a reintroduction of common sense into government. This will involve empowering government employees to exercise initiative and make decisions based on their understanding of the intent of the law, rather than simply following rigid rules and regulations. The goal is to create a government that is both effective and responsive to the needs of its citizens.

9. The Sixth Socioeconomic Cycle: Demographics and Redistribution

The most important fact to bear in mind is that the United States was an invented nation; it didn’t evolve naturally from a finite group of people over thousands of years in one indigenous region, as did, for example, China or Russia.

Demographic Shifts. The core problem of the next sociopolitical cycle will be demographic. The decline in birth rates and the extension of life expectancy are creating a demographic imbalance that will have profound implications for the American economy and society. This demographic shift will require new solutions to ensure the long-term sustainability of the nation.

Redistribution of Wealth. The new socioeconomic cycle will require a shift in the distribution of wealth. The surplus of capital that has accumulated in the hands of the upper class must be redistributed to ensure that all Americans have the opportunity to succeed. This will involve new policies to address income inequality and promote economic opportunity.

A New Coalition. The new socioeconomic cycle will require a new coalition of social forces. This coalition will include the heirs of the dispossessed of the prior cycle, who will move beyond the ethnic divisions that dominated the previous cycle. This coalition will demand a shift in the distribution of power and wealth, redefining the social landscape of America.

10. The American Character: Resilience and Reinvention

The true story of the United States is how it systematically changes its shape in order to grow.

Invented Nation. The United States was an invented nation, and its regime, people, and land are constantly being re-created. This constant reinvention creates periods of deep tension, but it also allows the nation to adapt and evolve in response to changing circumstances. The American character is built on contradictions, but it is also marked by resilience and a willingness to embrace change.

The Pursuit of Happiness. The pursuit of happiness defines American culture. It is not that there aren’t other paths, such as duty and love and charity. But they all orbit around the central core of pursuing an end, happiness, which is a highly individual concept and can be defined in as many ways as there are people. All are invited to establish their own definition of happiness.

The American Spirit. The American spirit is one of constant reinvention and adaptation. The United States has always been a nation in flux, constantly changing its shape in order to grow. This process of reinvention is often painful and disruptive, but it is also what makes the United States so resilient and dynamic. The United States will continue to reinvent itself, emerging from the storms of the 2020s stronger and more dynamic than ever before.

Last updated: February 24, 2025