Trades about to Happen

1. Wyckoff's Method: Understanding Market Forces

Successful tape reading [chart reading] is a study of Force.

Wyckoff's Core Principles. Richard Wyckoff's method emphasizes understanding the forces of supply and demand as reflected in price and volume. It's about discerning the intentions of large market operators, not just recognizing patterns. Wyckoff sought to develop a "trained judgment" for trading, focusing on the logic behind market movements rather than relying on rigid rules.

Evolution of the Method. Wyckoff's approach evolved from tape reading to chart analysis as markets grew more volatile. He stressed the importance of price range, close position, and volume in interpreting bar charts. Modern interpretations often focus on accumulation and distribution models, but Wyckoff's original intent was to cultivate a trader's intuition.

Modern Adaptation. The modern adaptation of the Wyckoff Method involves incorporating price range, close, and volume, along with "the story of the lines," which uses lines drawn on charts to frame and interconnect price movements, guiding traders toward behaviors that prompt market action.

2. The Power of Lines: Framing Market Behavior

Lines are drawn to be broken.

Lines as Guides. Drawing support and resistance lines, trend lines, and channels is crucial for understanding market behavior. These lines help to define the angle of advance or decline, identify overbought or oversold conditions, frame trading ranges, and forecast potential support or resistance levels.

Types of Lines. Horizontal lines frame trading ranges, while trend lines depict the angle of advance or decline. Channels combine these, with parallel lines indicating potential areas of support and resistance. Reverse trend lines and channels can highlight potential trend reversals.

The Story of the Lines. The true value of lines lies in the story they tell about price/volume behavior. They highlight false breakouts, turning points, and the interaction of price with key levels. Recognizing these linear relationships is a critical first step in Wyckoff analysis.

3. Reading Bar Charts: Decoding Price and Volume

The market is like a slowly revolving wheel: Whether the wheel will continue to revolve in the same direction, stand still or reverse depends entirely upon the forces which come in contact with it hub and tread.

Sequential Evaluation. Reading bar charts involves a sequential evaluation of price movement, comparing immediate price action with recent bars to infer future direction. This includes considering the price range, the position of the close, and the volume.

Volume as Force. Volume measures the effort of buying or selling. Comparing this effort with the resulting price gain or loss reveals which side is dominant. Rising volume with rising prices is generally bullish, while rising volume with falling prices is bearish.

Context is Key. Volume is best interpreted in conjunction with price range and close position. Narrow ranges with low volume often signify exhaustion, while wide ranges with high volume can indicate climactic action. The overall context of the chart, including trend lines and support/resistance levels, is crucial for accurate interpretation.

4. Springs: Identifying False Breakdowns

You can make a living by trading springs and upthrusts.

Spring Definition. A spring is a washout or penetration of a trading range or support level that fails to follow through and leads to an upward reversal. It indicates that sellers have been unable to sustain a decline, creating an opportunity for buyers.

Characteristics of Springs. Springs often occur on heavy volume, reflecting a large effort to drive prices lower that ultimately fails. The lack of follow-through after the breakdown is a key signal. Springs in an uptrend have a higher probability of success.

Trading Springs. A potential spring position arises when a market breaks below a support line but lacks downward follow-through. Traders can go long with a stop below the low of the break. Secondary tests of the spring, where prices retest the low on diminished volume, offer additional buying opportunities.

5. Upthrusts: Spotting Failed Breakouts

The hard to accept great paradox in the stock market is that what seems high and risky to the majority usually goes higher and what seems low and cheap usually goes lower.

Upthrust Definition. An upthrust is a failed breakout above a previous line of resistance. It signals that buyers have been unable to sustain an advance, creating an opportunity for sellers.

Characteristics of Upthrusts. Upthrusts often occur on narrow ranges with weak closes, indicating a lack of demand. The subsequent downward reversal confirms the failed breakout. Upthrusts in a downtrend have a higher probability of success.

Trading Upthrusts. Traders can go short after an upthrust, placing a stop above the high of the breakout. The key is to look for a bearish change in behavior, such as a large down-bar or a break below a key support level.

6. Absorption: Gauging Trend Strength

But here is the interesting and the important fact which, curiously enough, many casual chart observers appear never to grasp: these critical price levels constantly switch their roles from support to resistance and from resistance to support.

Absorption Definition. Absorption is the process through which buying or selling pressure is overcome, allowing a trend to continue. It involves the market absorbing liquidation, profit-taking, and new positions.

Characteristics of Absorption. Absorption areas often exhibit rising supports, increasing volume, and a lack of downward follow-through after threatening price bars. Prices tend to press against resistance lines without giving ground.

Trading Absorption. Recognizing absorption helps traders determine whether a breakout is likely to succeed or fail. If a market is undergoing absorption, it is more likely to break through resistance and continue its trend.

7. Tape Reading: Developing Intuitive Judgment

In consideration of those who believe that tape reading is an obsolete practice, I affirm that knowledge of it is the most valuable equipment a Wall Street trader can possess.

Tape Reading Principles. Tape reading involves studying the flow of orders on a ticker tape to discern the intentions of market participants. It requires the ability to judge which side has the greatest pulling power and to act with coolness and precision.

Wave Charts. Wyckoff devised wave charts to visualize buying and selling waves. These charts track the length, duration, volume, and activity of each wave to determine the dominant trend and identify potential trend changes.

Modern Adaptation. Modern tape reading involves using intraday charts with accurate price/volume data. Traders focus on price range, close position, and volume to interpret market behavior. The goal is to develop an intuitive judgment for trading.

8. Point & Figure Charts: Projecting Price Targets

When a dull market shows its inability to hold rallies, or when it does not respond to bullish news, it is technically weak.

Point & Figure Basics. Point-and-figure charts are a method of technical analysis that plots price movements without regard to time. They use X's and O's to represent price increases and decreases, respectively.

Price Projections. Point-and-figure charts can be used to project potential price targets. By counting the number of boxes in a congestion area and multiplying by the box size, traders can estimate the magnitude of a future move.

Wyckoff's Approach. Wyckoff used point-and-figure charts to identify accumulation and distribution patterns. He also incorporated volume into his charts, providing additional insight into market behavior.

9. Renko Charts: Visualizing Pure Price Action

A more gradual advance with constant volume of transactions, as opposed to spurts and wide price-changes, indicates a better quality of buying.

Renko Chart Basics. Renko charts filter out noise by only plotting price movements that meet a specified box size. This creates a cleaner, more visually appealing chart that highlights the underlying trend.

Benefits of Renko Charts. Renko charts can help traders identify support and resistance levels, trend lines, and chart patterns. They also make it easier to spot breakouts and breakdowns.

Combining with Volume. While Renko charts focus on price action, incorporating volume can provide additional confirmation of trend strength. Rising volume with rising Renko bricks is generally bullish, while rising volume with falling bricks is bearish.

Last updated: May 11, 2025