Why Empires Fall

1. The West's dominance is declining, mirroring Rome's fall

The West's share of global output has fallen by more than a quarter in less than two decades.

Economic decline: The West's share of global GDP has dropped from 80% in 1999 to 60% by 2008, and continues to fall. This mirrors Rome's decline, where economic power shifted from the imperial center to the periphery.

Political consequences: As with Rome, the West's economic decline is accompanied by political challenges. The once-shiny Western "brand" has lost its aura, presenting an image of deeply divided indecision in democracies that increasingly seem to deliver benefits mostly to the few.

Historical parallels:

• Rome's fall was not due to sudden barbarian invasions, but a gradual shift in economic and political power
• The West faces similar long-term trends of declining relative economic strength and political influence
• Both empires reached peak prosperity shortly before major challenges emerged

2. Economic shifts in the periphery challenge imperial centers

Fundamentally, the Roman Empire did not endure a long, slow decay from its second-century Golden Age, until its fall became inevitable in the fifth. Imperial prosperity peaked right on the eve of collapse.

Peripheral development: Both Rome and the modern West stimulated economic growth in their peripheries, which eventually challenged the imperial centers.

Key examples:

• Roman Empire: Germanic tribes beyond the Rhine and Danube developed more advanced agriculture and trade networks
• Modern West: China, India, and other developing nations have rapidly industrialized and now compete economically

Consequences:

• Shift in global economic balance
• Increased political assertiveness from formerly peripheral regions
• Strain on the imperial center's ability to maintain dominance

3. Migration patterns reflect changing power dynamics

Nothing in the precarious existence of an undocumented labourer in today's United States bears the slightest resemblance to a Vandal warrior enjoying the Roman good life in North Africa.

Contrasting patterns:

• Roman era: Barbarian tribes forcibly migrated into Roman territory, seizing land and power
• Modern era: Economic migrants move from developing countries to the West, often filling labor shortages

Economic impact:

• Roman Empire: Migrations disrupted tax base and military recruitment
• Modern West: Immigration generally provides economic benefits, especially in aging societies

Political challenges:

• Both eras see anti-immigrant sentiment and political backlash
• Modern immigration is more controlled and economically driven than ancient "barbarian invasions"

4. Debt and demographic shifts strain Western economies

Currently, between 15–20 per cent of the population in most Western countries has retired, and those figures will continue rising – by mid-century, on current trends, to something closer to the 25–30 per cent range.

Demographic pressures:

• Aging populations increase dependency ratios
• Fewer workers supporting more retirees
• Rising healthcare and pension costs

Debt accumulation:

• Western nations have taken on massive public and private debt
• Low interest rates have encouraged borrowing
• COVID-19 pandemic dramatically increased government debt loads

Economic consequences:

• Strain on public finances and social services
• Potential for financial instability or crisis
• Challenge to maintain economic growth and living standards

5. China's rise presents a new superpower challenge

China presents a completely different picture. If its military is still untested in major conflict, its share of global GDP currently stands in the region of 16 per cent (compared to 2 per cent for Russia).

Economic transformation: China's GDP has grown from negligible levels in 1976 to become the world's second-largest economy, rivaling the U.S.

Global influence:

• Major trading partner for many nations
• Increasing diplomatic and soft power
• Growing military capabilities

Western response options:

• Confrontation risks damaging economic interdependence
• Cooperation on global issues like climate change is necessary
• Balancing competition and engagement presents a challenge

6. Internal divisions threaten Western social cohesion

Underlying all this divisive labelling is the fundamental distinction between those who benefited from the remaking of the world economy after the new patterns of globalization, and those who did not.

Economic inequality:

• Globalization has created winners and losers within Western societies
• Top earners and asset owners have benefited disproportionately
• Many workers face stagnant wages and economic insecurity

Political consequences:

• Rise of populist movements and anti-establishment sentiment
• Erosion of trust in traditional institutions and elites
• Challenges to the post-war social contract

Social tensions:

• Generational divides over economic opportunities
• Urban-rural splits in voting patterns and cultural values
• Debates over immigration and national identity

7. Adapting to a post-imperial world requires difficult choices

The West cannot make itself great again in the old terms. The tectonic plates of economic organization on which those political structures rested have shifted decisively, and nothing is going to move them back.

Acknowledging change: Western leaders must recognize that the era of unchallenged global dominance is over.

Policy challenges:

• Reforming welfare states for aging populations
• Addressing wealth inequality and economic insecurity
• Balancing national interests with global cooperation

Cultural shift:

• Moving beyond colonial-era attitudes and exceptionalism
• Embracing a more equitable global order
• Redefining national success in a multipolar world

8. A new global order demands cooperation, not confrontation

If Western countries want to check Chinese expansion in the global periphery, the Western narrative will need to change, moving away from an implicit determination to preserve Western greatness at the expense (if need be) of developing countries, and towards assisting them to strengthen both their overall prosperity and their social and governmental structures.

Multilateral approach:

• Build broader alliances with emerging powers sharing democratic values
• Engage constructively with China on global issues
• Reform international institutions to reflect new power realities

Domestic reforms:

• Address internal inequalities to rebuild social cohesion
• Invest in education and infrastructure for future competitiveness
• Develop sustainable economic models less reliant on debt

Global challenges:

• Collaborate on climate change, pandemics, and other shared threats
• Work towards a more equitable global economic system
• Promote rule of law and democratic values through example, not force

Last updated: October 31, 2024