Anti-Tech Revolution

1. Societal Development Defies Rational Control

The wider the scope of my reflection on the present and the past, the more am I impressed by their mockery of human plans in every transaction.

History's Lessons. Throughout history, numerous attempts to rationally control societal development have failed, from Roman sumptuary laws to modern social reform programs. Even well-intentioned and seemingly successful interventions often produce unintended and undesirable long-term consequences. This consistent pattern suggests an inherent limitation in humanity's ability to predict and manage the complex dynamics of society.

Examples of Failure. Consider the Green Revolution, intended to alleviate hunger, which led to environmental degradation and social disruption in many regions. Or Prohibition in the United States, which fostered organized crime and corruption. These examples highlight the difficulty of anticipating all the effects of even seemingly straightforward policies.

The Illusion of Control. Despite advancements in social sciences and technology, the capacity to guide societal development remains elusive. The belief that societies can be rationally steered is a dangerous illusion, leading to misguided policies and ultimately, to unintended and often catastrophic outcomes.

2. Complex Systems Exhibit Unpredictable Behavior

The systems involved are complex, involving interaction among and feedback between many parts. Any changes to such a system will cascade in ways that are difficult to predict; this is especially true when human actions are involved.

Complexity and Chaos. Human societies are complex systems, and their behavior is inherently difficult to predict due to the intricate interactions and feedback loops between numerous components. Even minute inaccuracies in initial data can invalidate long-term predictions, a phenomenon known as the "butterfly effect." This chaotic behavior makes it impossible to reliably plan a society's future.

Economic Impossibility. Rational economic planning is impossible due to the overwhelming complexity of modern economies. Calculating a rational system of prices for the U.S. economy alone would require manipulating an estimated 60 trillion simultaneous equations. This calculation only accounts for economic factors, ignoring the psychological, sociological, and political influences that continuously interact with the economy.

Limits of Prediction. While short-term predictions in specific contexts are possible, long-term, specific predictions about societal development are generally unreliable. The inherent complexity and chaotic nature of social systems render consistent, successful long-term planning an unattainable goal.

3. Power Dynamics Limit Leaders' Control

The higher our station, the less is our freedom of action.

The Limits of Power. Even leaders with formal authority often find their power severely limited by resistance from subordinates, conflicting interests within the system, and external pressures. Political institutions, intended to resolve societal problems, are often hampered by the "problem of the commons," where individual self-interest undermines collective welfare.

Examples of Limited Power. Julius Caesar lamented the constraints of high office, while Abraham Lincoln confessed that events controlled him more than he controlled events. Even seemingly absolute monarchs like Louis XIV had to navigate complex social networks and respect the existing power dynamics.

Economic Realities. Economic forces and market conditions often compel businesses to act ruthlessly, regardless of the management's intentions. The pursuit of profit and competitive pressures can override ethical considerations and limit the options available to even the most well-intentioned leaders.

4. Natural Selection Drives Societal Evolution

Power is in nature the essential measure of right.

Self-Propagating Systems. Within any complex society, self-propagating systems (self-prop systems) arise, including businesses, political parties, and social networks. These systems compete for survival and power, driving societal evolution through a process analogous to biological natural selection.

Short-Term Advantage. Natural selection favors self-prop systems that prioritize short-term gains over long-term consequences. This leads to a relentless pursuit of power and resources, often at the expense of environmental sustainability and social well-being.

Global Reach. In modern times, rapid transportation and communication have enabled the emergence of global self-prop systems. These systems compete for dominance on a worldwide scale, concentrating power in the hands of a few and exacerbating the destructive tendencies of short-term, unrestrained competition.

5. Technological Systems Face Inherent Instability

The actual course of... historical change as a whole is intended and planned by no-one.

Complexity and Coupling. The increasing complexity and tight coupling of the world-system, driven by technological advancements, make it increasingly vulnerable to catastrophic breakdowns. Malfunctions in one part of the system can quickly spread to others, leading to widespread disruption.

Unstable "World Peace." Even if a single global system were to achieve dominance, internal competition among its subsystems would eventually lead to destructive conflict. New self-prop systems would inevitably arise, challenging the existing order and preventing the consolidation of lasting peace.

The Fermi Paradox. The theory of self-propagating systems provides a plausible explanation for the Fermi Paradox, which questions why we haven't detected extraterrestrial civilizations. The inherent instability of technologically advanced societies may lead to their self-destruction before they can achieve interstellar communication.

6. Global Self-Propagating Systems Threaten Biosphere

We were recently entertained by a naive fable of the happy arrival of the ‘end of history,’ of the overflowing triumph of an all-democratic bliss; the ultimate global arrangement had supposedly been attained. But we all see and sense that something very different is coming, something new, and perhaps quite stern.

Exploitation of Resources. The relentless drive for power among global self-prop systems leads to the exploitation of every resource and the invasion of every corner of the planet. As technology advances, previously useless resources become valuable, intensifying environmental damage.

Atmospheric Disruption. The biosphere, responsible for maintaining the Earth's atmosphere, is threatened by the technological system's activities. The greenhouse effect, contamination with toxic elements, and genetic pollution all contribute to a potential atmospheric disaster.

A Dead Planet. If the development of the technological world-system continues unchecked, it will likely render the Earth uninhabitable for complex life forms. The planet may end up like Venus, with a toxic atmosphere and scorching temperatures.

7. Technianity: A Tech-Driven Religious Illusion

Within a matter of centuries, human intelligence will have re-engineered and saturated all the matter in the universe.

The Techie Dream. Many technophiles, or "techies," believe in a future technological utopia characterized by immortality, the merging of humans with machines, and the conquest of the universe. This vision is based on speculative ideas about the future of technology and often ignores the inherent limitations and dangers of unchecked technological growth.

Illusory Immortality. The techies' dream of immortality, whether through indefinite preservation of the body, man-machine hybrids, or mind uploading, is likely an illusion. Even if technically feasible, immortality would likely be limited to an elite minority and would not escape the competitive forces that drive natural selection.

Technianity as Religion. The techies' belief system resembles a religious phenomenon, with its apocalyptic vision of the Singularity and the promise of a techno-utopia for the "Elect." This "Technianity" serves as a way to cope with anxieties about the future of technological society, offering a quasi-religious myth to escape harsh realities.

8. Revolution Requires Clear, Concrete Objectives

Vague, over-generalized objectives are seldom met. The trick is to conceive of some specific development which will inevitably propel your community in the direction you want it to go.

Focus and Clarity. A successful revolutionary movement must have a single, clear, simple, and concrete objective. Vague or abstract goals, such as "freedom" or "equality," are difficult to translate into effective action and can lead to internal divisions and a blurring of the movement's purpose.

The Principal Contradiction. Identifying the "principal contradiction" in a given situation is crucial for selecting a decisive objective. This objective should be the key to transforming society and addressing the root causes of its problems.

Examples of Success. The feminist movement's focus on woman suffrage and the Irish nationalists' pursuit of political independence demonstrate the power of clear, concrete objectives. These movements achieved significant success by concentrating their efforts on a single, well-defined goal.

9. Irreversible Change is Essential for Lasting Transformation

The laws proved futile, however, and aristocratic landowning and political dominance continued to grow.

The Inevitability of Corruption. Any revolutionary movement that acquires great power will eventually become corrupt, with its members prioritizing personal gain over the movement's ideals. Therefore, the objective selected by the movement must be of such a nature that its consequences are irreversible.

Permanent Transformation. Once society has been transformed through the achievement of the objective, it must remain in its transformed condition without any further effort from the movement or anyone else. This ensures that the gains of the revolution are not lost due to the corruption of its leaders.

Examples of Reversible Change. The theocratic republic set up in Geneva by Calvin provides a probable example in which a movement achieved its objective and the associated social changes were later reversed due to corruption of the movement.

10. Organized Action Outweighs Mere Advocacy

The principal power that the President has is to bring people in and try to persuade them to do what they ought to do without persuasion. That’s what I spend most of my time doing. That’s what the powers of the President amount to.

Beyond Preaching. The mere advocacy of ideas is insufficient to bring about significant, lasting changes in human behavior. A revolutionary movement must organize itself for practical action, employing methods more potent than simply preaching or promoting its ideology.

The Role of Ideas. While ideas alone cannot transform society, they are essential for guiding and motivating action. A well-defined ideology provides a framework for understanding the world and justifying the movement's goals.

The Challenge of Organization. Organizing for practical action is far more difficult than advocating ideas. It requires overcoming apathy, building trust, and coordinating the efforts of diverse individuals.

11. Revolutionary Movements Must Maintain Purity

The higher our station, the less is our freedom of action.

Excluding Unsuitable Persons. To remain faithful to its objective, a revolutionary movement must devise means of excluding unsuitable persons who may seek to join it. These individuals may have goals that are only loosely related to the movement's purpose, leading to a blurring or perversion of its original vision.

Defining the Movement. A movement must clearly define its boundaries and establish criteria for membership. This helps to ensure that all members are committed to the movement's core principles and are willing to work towards its specific objective.

Maintaining Control. A movement can have an inner circle and an outer circle, and if the inner circle maintains firm control over the outer circle, then exclusion of unsuitable persons from the inner circle maybe sufficient even if all comers are admitted to the outer circle.

12. Strategic Guidelines for Anti-Tech Action

History is made in such a way that the final result always arises from the conflicts among many individual wills, each of which is made into what it is by a multitude of special conditions of life; thus there are innumerable intersecting forces, an infinite collection of parallelograms of forces, and from them emerges a resultant—the historical event—which from another point of view can be regarded as the product of one power that, as a whole, operates unconsciously and without volition. For what each individual wants runs up against the opposition of every other, and what comes out of it all is something that no one wanted.

Building Internal Power. An anti-tech movement must build a strong, cohesive organization of committed individuals. Numbers are secondary to quality. The organization must develop a deep understanding of social movements to recognize and exploit opportunities.

Building External Power. The movement must win respect, even fear, for its ideas and effectiveness. It should undermine faith in the technological system by highlighting its failures and vulnerabilities.

Undermining the System. The movement should do what it can to undermine people’s faith in the technological system. This is likely to be the lightest of the movement’s burdens, because much of the work will be done without any effort on the part of the movement.

Last updated: March 29, 2025