Blood and Oil

1. MBS: The Rise of a Ruthless Reformer

Without getting a better understanding of his personality, his family, his motivations, his stratagems, and the details of the battles he fought to get where he is, everyday observers won’t have the information needed to help them come to a conclusion.

From Aimless Youth to Ambitious Prince. Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) transformed from a seemingly directionless teenager, obsessed with video games and fast food, into a driven and ambitious leader. This shift was fueled by a realization of his family's financial vulnerabilities and a desire to secure his own branch's future. He was not content with the traditional path of a Saudi prince, instead seeking to build his own wealth and power base.

Learning from History and Business. MBS was deeply influenced by stories of entrepreneurs, tycoons, and strong political figures, as well as historical figures like Alexander the Great. He saw the world in terms of confrontation and was determined to make Saudi Arabia a powerful nation on the world stage. He also learned from his father, Salman, about the inner workings of power in Saudi Arabia, observing his father's interactions with religious leaders, tribal elders, and foreign diplomats.

A New Kind of Leader. Unlike his predecessors, who relied on royal consensus and extreme conservatism, MBS was young, energetic, and willing to take risks. He was not afraid to challenge the status quo, and his aggressive approach to change was evident in his early actions, such as the war in Yemen and the consolidation of power within the Royal Court. He was a new kind of leader, one who was comfortable dropping bombs with or without US support.

2. Power Plays: Consolidating Control

The aggressive Ritz move, later called the “sheikhdown” by many in the West, was the moment when Mohammed placed a bundle of dynamite on the status quo and blasted it to smithereens.

Strategic Maneuvering. MBS's rise to power was marked by strategic maneuvering and a willingness to challenge established norms. He outmaneuvered rivals within the royal family, including the sons of King Abdullah, and sidelined powerful figures like Khalid al-Tuwaijri, the head of Abdullah's Royal Court. He also used his father's position as king to consolidate control over key institutions, including the military, the police, and the intelligence agencies.

The Ritz-Carlton Purge. The arrests of Saudi Arabia's richest and most powerful men at the Ritz-Carlton hotel in 2017 were a turning point in MBS's rise to power. This "sheikhdown" was a calculated move to eliminate potential rivals, seize assets, and send a message that no one was above the law. It was a display of his cunning nature, love of a grand gesture, taste for risk, and ruthless streak.

Control of Key Institutions. By the time the dust settled, MBS controlled all branches of the military, the police, the intelligence agencies, and all government ministries. He also held controlling stakes in many of the country's largest businesses through government holding companies. He wasn't the king, but he was one of the most powerful men on earth.

3. Vision 2030: A Kingdom Beyond Oil

My plan is to be richer than Alwaleed bin Talal in two years.

Economic Diversification. MBS's Vision 2030 plan was an ambitious attempt to shift the Saudi economy away from its reliance on oil. He sought to diversify the economy, invest in new industries, and create jobs for the country's burgeoning youth population. This plan was driven by a recognition that the world was moving away from oil and that Saudi Arabia needed to adapt to survive.

Public Investment Fund (PIF). A key component of Vision 2030 was the transformation of the Public Investment Fund into a global investment powerhouse. MBS aimed to use the PIF to invest Saudi oil revenue into other industries, both domestically and abroad. This was a departure from the kingdom's traditional approach of keeping its wealth tied to oil.

NEOM: A Futuristic City. The NEOM project, a planned city on the Red Sea coast, was a symbol of MBS's ambition and vision for the future. It was intended to be a hub for technology, innovation, and tourism, and a showcase for the new Saudi Arabia. It was a bold attempt to create a city from scratch, free from the constraints of the past.

4. The Price of Reform: Dissent and Repression

My role model,” he declared, “is Machiavelli.”

Suppression of Dissent. While MBS promoted social and economic reforms, he also cracked down on dissent and criticism. He used surveillance, arrests, and intimidation to silence those who opposed his policies or questioned his authority. This included religious leaders, economists, and even members of his own family.

Social Media Control. MBS understood the power of social media and used it to promote his agenda and attack his critics. He employed a team of specialists to create fake Twitter accounts, spread propaganda, and unmask anonymous regime critics. He also used spyware to infiltrate the phones of dissidents and journalists.

The Limits of Reform. MBS's reforms were selective, focusing on social and economic changes while limiting political freedom. He was willing to loosen social restrictions, but he was not willing to tolerate any challenge to his authority or the Al Saud's rule. This created a climate of fear and self-censorship within the kingdom.

5. Global Ambitions: A Prince on the World Stage

I know Saudi Arabia and America will always have a special relationship as long as you keep selling us your weapons.

Courting World Leaders. MBS sought to establish himself as a global leader by cultivating relationships with powerful figures in the United States, Europe, and Russia. He met with presidents, prime ministers, and CEOs, showcasing his vision for Saudi Arabia and seeking their support for his reforms. He was particularly focused on building a strong relationship with the United States.

A New Kind of Diplomacy. MBS's approach to diplomacy was different from that of his predecessors. He was more assertive, less deferential, and willing to challenge the status quo. He was not afraid to express his views directly, even when they differed from those of his counterparts. He was also willing to take risks and make bold moves on the world stage.

The US-Saudi Alliance. MBS saw the US-Saudi alliance as transactional, not a deep friendship. He was focused on securing US support for his agenda and was willing to use his country's wealth to achieve his goals. He was also wary of US influence and sought to assert Saudi Arabia's independence on the world stage.

6. The Khashoggi Affair: A Turning Point

You are a corrupt traitor and a fugitive.

The Murder of a Critic. The murder of Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul was a turning point in MBS's rise to power. The brutal killing, and the subsequent cover-up, exposed the dark side of his regime and damaged his reputation on the world stage. It also revealed the extent to which he was willing to go to silence his critics.

A Global Outrage. The Khashoggi affair sparked international outrage and led to calls for accountability. Western governments, human rights organizations, and media outlets condemned the killing and demanded that those responsible be brought to justice. The incident also highlighted the dangers faced by journalists and dissidents around the world.

A Test of Power. The Khashoggi affair tested MBS's ability to manage a crisis and maintain his grip on power. While he initially denied any involvement, he was eventually forced to acknowledge that the killing had taken place and to take steps to address the fallout. The incident also revealed the limits of his power and the challenges he faced in maintaining his image as a reformer.

7. The Aftermath: A Legacy of Contradictions

We are just going back to what we used to be: moderate, open minded Islam to the world and to all religions and to all traditions and peoples.

A Complex Legacy. MBS's legacy is one of contradictions. He is a reformer who has pushed through significant social and economic changes, but he is also an autocrat who has silenced dissent and used violence to maintain his power. He is a modernizer who has embraced technology and innovation, but he is also a traditionalist who has sought to preserve the Al Saud's rule.

Uncertain Future. The Khashoggi affair and other controversies have raised questions about MBS's leadership and his ability to deliver on his promises. While he has consolidated power and made significant changes to Saudi Arabia, his long-term impact remains uncertain. The future of the kingdom will depend on his ability to balance his ambitions with the needs and aspirations of his people.

A World Watching. The world is watching to see how MBS will navigate the challenges ahead. Will he continue on his path of reform, or will he revert to the old ways of the Al Saud? Will he be able to maintain his grip on power, or will he be challenged by rivals within the royal family or by a restive population? The answers to these questions will determine the future of Saudi Arabia and its role in the world.

Last updated: January 23, 2025