MBS

1. MBS's Unlikely Ascent: From Obscurity to Power

To distinguish him from the mass of his royal relatives, Saudis and Saudi watchers referred to him by his initials, MBS.

Early life and family. Mohammed bin Salman, or MBS, was born into the vast Al Saud family, far down the line of succession. His father, Salman bin Abdulaziz, was a hardworking prince who later became governor of Riyadh. MBS's mother, Fahda bint Falah Al Hathleen, instilled in him a drive to excel. Unlike his older half-brothers who studied abroad, MBS remained deeply rooted in Saudi culture, a factor that would later contribute to his father's favor.

Rising through the ranks. The untimely deaths of two of Salman's older sons created an opportunity for MBS to become closer to his father. As Salman became crown prince and then king, MBS's influence grew rapidly. He was appointed Minister of Defense and head of the Royal Court, giving him control over the military and access to the king.

Seizing the moment. MBS capitalized on his father's trust and the kingdom's challenges, including low oil prices and regional instability, to consolidate power. He restructured the government, launched a war in Yemen, and sidelined potential rivals, ultimately becoming the crown prince and de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia.

2. The Kingdom's Foundations: Oil, Islam, and the Al Saud

Saudi Arabia had long been known for two things: oil and Islam.

Oil wealth and geopolitical importance. The discovery of vast oil reserves transformed Saudi Arabia into a global power, giving the Al Saud family immense wealth and influence. This wealth shaped the Saudi economy, creating an elite class and a large public sector. The kingdom's strategic importance grew as it became a key partner of the United States, guaranteeing access to oil in exchange for protection.

Wahhabism and religious authority. The official Islam of the kingdom is Wahhabism, an ultraconservative interpretation woven into Saudi history. This ideology taught wariness of non-Muslims, enforced strict social restrictions, and gave the kingdom unique clout among Muslims as the guardian of Mecca and Medina.

The Al Saud dynasty. The Al Saud family's alliance with Wahhabism dates back to the 18th century, when Mohammed Ibn Saud partnered with cleric Mohammed Ibn Abdul-Wahhab. Over time, the Al Saud consolidated their rule, establishing the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in 1932 and becoming one of the world's wealthiest dynasties.

3. Navigating Shifting Alliances: Obama, Trump, and the Middle East

Exacerbating these challenges were doubts about the commitment of the kingdom’s most important ally: the United States.

Obama's strained relationship. President Barack Obama's administration had a cool relationship with Saudi Arabia, marked by disagreements over the Iran nuclear deal and the handling of the Arab Spring. Obama criticized Saudi Arabia's human rights record and its exportation of Wahhabism, leading to a sense of betrayal within the kingdom.

MBS and Trump's unlikely bond. MBS forged a strong alliance with President Donald Trump and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, despite Trump's anti-Muslim rhetoric during his campaign. This bond was based on shared interests, including confronting Iran, combating terrorism, and boosting the American economy through arms sales and investments.

The UAE and MBZ's influence. Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MBZ), the crown prince of Abu Dhabi, played a key role in shaping MBS's worldview and fostering his relationship with the Trump administration. MBZ's animosity toward Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood influenced MBS's policies and regional alliances.

4. Vision 2030: Remaking Saudi Arabia

Such a vow had never been made in public by a Saudi leader.

Ambitious economic and social reforms. MBS launched Vision 2030, a plan to overhaul the Saudi economy, reduce its dependence on oil, and modernize its society. The plan included privatizing state-owned assets, developing new industries, promoting tourism, and expanding entertainment options.

Challenging conservatism. Vision 2030 aimed to challenge the kingdom's conservative reputation by opening cinemas, allowing concerts, and granting women the right to drive. These changes were intended to attract foreign investment, create jobs, and improve the quality of life for Saudi citizens.

Consultants and grand projects. MBS relied heavily on foreign consultants to develop and implement Vision 2030, spending billions of dollars on their expertise. He unveiled ambitious projects like NEOM, a futuristic city powered by renewable energy and staffed by robots, to showcase the kingdom's transformation.

5. Defanging the Clerics: Reimagining Saudi Society

We are only returning to what we were, a moderate, balanced Islam that is open to the world, and to all the religions, and to all traditions and peoples.

Challenging Wahhabism. MBS sought to curb the power of the religious establishment and promote a more moderate, tolerant version of Islam. He argued that Wahhabism was a recent phenomenon and that Saudi Arabia was returning to its roots as an open and inclusive society.

Curbing the religious police. In 2016, MBS stripped the Commission for the Promotion of Virtue and the Prevention of Vice, or religious police, of their powers to arrest and punish citizens. This move significantly reduced their influence and allowed for greater social freedoms.

Promoting a new Saudi identity. MBS aimed to create a new Saudi identity that balanced religious values with modern aspirations. He encouraged entertainment, sports, and cultural events, while also promoting tolerance and interfaith dialogue.

6. The Ruthless Pursuit of Power: Consolidating Control

He is determined to give Saudis a shining, prosperous future, and exercises an unflinching willingness to crush his foes.

Sidelining rivals. MBS consolidated his power by marginalizing potential rivals within the royal family, including Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef. He dismantled MBN's court, stripped him of key responsibilities, and ultimately replaced him as crown prince in 2017.

The Ritz-Carlton crackdown. In late 2017, MBS launched a crackdown on corruption, detaining hundreds of Saudi Arabia's wealthiest and most powerful men, including royal relatives, in the Riyadh Ritz-Carlton. While the government claimed the detentions were aimed at fighting corruption, critics saw them as a power grab by MBS to eliminate potential challengers and seize their assets.

Silencing dissent. MBS's government cracked down on dissent, arresting journalists, activists, and intellectuals who criticized his policies. This created a climate of fear and self-censorship within Saudi society, limiting freedom of expression and hindering open debate.

7. Yemen: A Costly and Protracted War

Saudi Arabia wants to prove that it is ready to take unprecedented military, financial, and political risks in order not to fall into a disadvantageous position in the region.

Intervention in Yemen. In 2015, MBS launched a military intervention in Yemen to oust the Houthi rebels and restore the government of President Abed Rabbu Mansour Hadi. The war was intended to be a quick victory, but it dragged on for years, becoming a costly and bloody quagmire.

Humanitarian crisis. The war in Yemen caused a severe humanitarian crisis, with millions of people displaced, facing starvation, and lacking access to basic services. Saudi airstrikes targeted civilian infrastructure, exacerbating the suffering of the Yemeni people.

International criticism. The war in Yemen drew international criticism, with human rights organizations accusing Saudi Arabia of war crimes. The United States, a key ally of Saudi Arabia, faced pressure to end its support for the intervention.

8. The Khashoggi Killing: A Turning Point

The cautious diplomatic stance of the older leading members of the royal family is being replaced by an impulsive policy of intervention.

The murder of Jamal Khashoggi. In October 2018, Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi was murdered inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. The killing sparked international outrage and damaged MBS's reputation as a reformer.

Saudi Arabia's shifting narrative. The Saudi government initially denied any involvement in Khashoggi's disappearance, but later admitted that he had been killed inside the consulate. The government offered various explanations for the killing, but none were widely accepted.

International fallout. The Khashoggi killing strained Saudi Arabia's relations with the United States and other Western countries. Many world leaders condemned the murder and called for accountability. The incident also led to increased scrutiny of Saudi Arabia's human rights record and its role in the war in Yemen.

9. Authoritarian Modernization: A Divisive Legacy

He is determined to give Saudis a shining, prosperous future, and exercises an unflinching willingness to crush his foes.

A complex legacy. MBS's rule has been marked by both progress and repression. He has implemented significant social and economic reforms, but also consolidated power and silenced dissent. His actions have divided Saudi society and raised questions about the future of the kingdom.

The challenge of balancing reform and control. MBS faces the challenge of balancing his desire to modernize Saudi Arabia with his authoritarian tendencies. His willingness to crush his foes has alienated many and undermined his efforts to build a more open and tolerant society.

The future of Saudi Arabia. MBS's actions will have a lasting impact on Saudi Arabia and the wider Middle East. Whether he can deliver on his promises of a prosperous and stable future remains to be seen. His legacy will depend on his ability to learn from his mistakes and embrace a more inclusive and accountable approach to governance.

Last updated: February 26, 2025