Nomad Century

1. Climate change will force mass migration of billions

By 2050, hotter temperatures combined with more intense humidity are set to make large swathes of the globe lethal for 3.5 billion of us.

Impending climate catastrophe. The world faces environmental, social, and demographic disaster, with temperatures projected to rise 3-4°C by 2100. This will render large parts of the tropics uninhabitable due to deadly heat, drought, floods, and extreme weather. Key impacts include:

• Drowning of coastal cities and small island nations
• Intolerable heatwaves in densely populated regions
• Collapse of agriculture in many areas
• Mass extinction of species and ecosystem breakdown

Forced displacement. Climate change will drive the largest human migration in history:

• 1-3 billion people may be forced to move by 2050
• Major source regions: South Asia, Africa, Middle East, parts of Americas
• Destination regions: Northern latitudes, higher elevations

The scale and speed of this upheaval is unprecedented, requiring urgent global planning and cooperation to manage humanely.

2. Migration is a natural and beneficial human behavior

Migration is not the problem; it is the solution – it always has been.

Human evolutionary success. Migration has been key to human survival and success throughout our evolutionary history. Our ancestors spread across the globe by:

• Adapting to new environments through cultural and technological innovation
• Cooperating in groups and forming social networks
• Exchanging resources, ideas, and genes between populations

This flexibility and adaptability allowed humans to thrive in diverse habitats.

Modern benefits. In the modern world, migration continues to drive progress:

• Fuels economic growth and innovation
• Reduces global poverty and inequality
• Brings cultural exchange and diversity
• Helps address demographic challenges in aging societies

Rather than a threat, migration should be seen as a solution to many global challenges, including climate change adaptation.

3. Current immigration policies are inadequate and harmful

Migration is framed as a security risk for the developed world, which is wrong and needs to change.

Outdated paradigm. Current border policies and anti-immigrant rhetoric are based on outdated notions of fixed national identities. This approach:

• Causes unnecessary suffering and death
• Wastes human potential
• Fails to address real demographic and economic needs

Need for new approach. A radical rethink of migration policy is needed:

• Shift from security to economic framing
• Create legal pathways for climate migrants
• Invest in integration and inclusion programs
• Address root causes of forced migration

Managed well, large-scale migration can benefit both sending and receiving societies. But this requires abandoning the current paradigm of militarized borders and xenophobic politics.

4. Migration drives economic growth and reduces poverty

Migration is by far the best and most efficient way to help nations achieve pretty much any indicator of development, and makes much better sense than most aid spending, even if politically it's usually less palatable.

Economic benefits. Research consistently shows migration boosts economies:

• Increases GDP growth in receiving countries
• Provides labor for key industries and addresses skills shortages
• Drives innovation and entrepreneurship
• Generates remittances that support development in origin countries

Poverty reduction. Migration is one of the most effective ways to reduce global poverty:

• Migrants can earn 3-6x more in destination countries
• Remittances exceed foreign aid in many developing countries
• Skills and knowledge transfers benefit origin communities

Examples:

• Nigeria received $24.3B in remittances in 2018 (8x its foreign aid)
• 25% GDP boost in Canada attributed to immigration

Facilitating safe, legal migration pathways is a powerful tool for global development.

5. New cities in the north will become havens for climate migrants

North of the 45°N parallel will be the twenty-first century's booming haven: it represents 15 per cent of the planet's area but holds 29 per cent of its ice-free land, and is currently home to a small fraction of the world's (ageing) people.

Shifting habitability. As the tropics become dangerously hot, northern regions will become more livable:

• Canada, Russia, Scandinavia will see agricultural and economic benefits
• New cities will need to be built to accommodate millions of migrants
• Existing northern cities like Anchorage, Nuuk, and Churchill may boom

Opportunities and challenges. This northward shift presents both opportunities and challenges:

• New land for agriculture and resource extraction
• Need for massive infrastructure development
• Potential for conflicts over newly accessible territory
• Risks from melting permafrost and changing ecosystems

Planning and international cooperation will be crucial to manage this unprecedented shift in human geography.

6. Sustainable food production must adapt to changing climates

We need to look beyond the Holocene technique of chopping down a forest to create bare earth, sprinkling seeds and letting the sun and rain do much of the magic.

Food system transformation. Feeding 9-10 billion people in a hotter world requires reimagining agriculture:

• Shift to plant-based diets and alternative proteins (insects, lab-grown meat)
• Develop heat and drought-resistant crop varieties
• Expand indoor and vertical farming in cities
• Utilize new areas opening up for agriculture in the north

Ocean resources. The oceans offer untapped potential for sustainable food:

• Seaweed and algae farming
• Sustainable aquaculture
• Marine permaculture systems

Innovation in food production is essential to feed a growing population on a hotter planet with less arable land.

7. Global cooperation is essential for managing climate migration

We need to plan pragmatically now, adopting a species-wide approach to ensure our human systems and communities have the resilience to weather the shocks to come.

New global institutions. Managing mass migration requires new forms of international cooperation:

• UN agency with real power to manage migration flows
• Global citizenship and passports
• Burden-sharing mechanisms between nations
• Coordinated urban planning and development

Rethinking sovereignty. Traditional notions of national sovereignty may need to evolve:

• Charter cities and special economic zones for migrants
• Land leasing arrangements between nations
• Regional governance structures (e.g. Arctic Council)

The scale of coming upheaval demands reimagining global governance to put human needs first.

8. Restoring nature and cooling the planet are crucial priorities

To keep below 1.5°C of heating, we'd have to halve global emissions by 2025, and reach net zero by 2050.

Nature restoration. Protecting and restoring ecosystems is vital for:

• Carbon sequestration
• Preserving biodiversity
• Maintaining crucial ecosystem services

Key priorities include reforestation, wetland restoration, and ocean conservation.

Climate intervention. To avoid catastrophic warming, we may need to consider:

• Massive carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere
• Solar radiation management (e.g. stratospheric aerosol injection)
• Arctic ice preservation techniques

While controversial, these approaches may become necessary to buy time for emissions reductions and protect vulnerable populations.

9. A new global identity and governance system is needed

We need to redirect the productive capacity of society to address climate change and the looming demographic crisis.

Planetary identity. The climate crisis demands a shift in how we see ourselves:

• Move beyond narrow nationalism to global citizenship
• Recognize our shared stake in planetary health
• Embrace diversity and cultural exchange

Governance for the Anthropocene. New institutions and decision-making processes are needed:

• Global bodies with real enforcement powers
• Democratic input on planetary-scale decisions
• Long-term planning horizons (decades to centuries)

The existential risks we face require nothing less than reimagining human society on a planetary scale.

Last updated: August 22, 2024