Pakistan

1. Pakistan's Janus-Faced Nature: A Paradox of Resilience and Underdevelopment

Many of the same features of Pakistan’s state and government which are responsible for holding Islamist extremism in check are at one and the same time responsible for holding back Pakistan’s social, economic and political development.

Internal Contradictions. Pakistan's defining characteristic is its "Janus-faced" nature, where the same elements that provide stability also hinder progress. The state's resilience in curbing extremism is intertwined with its inability to foster social, economic, and political advancement. This creates a complex dynamic where strengths and weaknesses are inextricably linked.

Islands of Modernity. Despite its challenges, Pakistan possesses pockets of successful modernity, including modern industries, well-maintained motorways, and a highly capable army. These elements contribute to the country's surprising toughness and resilience, preventing it from being classified as a truly failed state.

The Creepers Holding the Tree. The resilience of the Pakistani system is maintained by elements that are both parasitic and essential. These "tough creepers" simultaneously sustain and exploit the system, making it difficult to implement reforms without destabilizing the entire structure.

2. The Centrality of Pakistan's Relationship with Afghanistan and the Taliban

Pakistan is quite simply far more important to the region, the West and the world than is Afghanistan: a statement which is a matter not of sentiment but of mathematics.

Strategic Importance. Pakistan's significance far outweighs that of Afghanistan due to its larger population, strategic location, nuclear arsenal, and powerful army. Its diaspora in Britain and the EU also makes it a critical player in global security.

Complex Alliance. Pakistan's relationship with the West in the "war on terror" has been partial but vital. While Pakistani intelligence has been instrumental in preventing terrorist attacks, the country's strategic calculations and mass sentiment limit its willingness to fully support Western objectives in Afghanistan.

Fear and Ambition. Pakistan's approach to Afghanistan is driven by a mixture of fear and ambition, including the fear of Indian encirclement and the ambition to maintain influence in the region. This has led to a complex relationship with the Afghan Taliban, whom Pakistan sees as potential allies against Indian influence.

3. Kinship and Society: The Bedrock of Pakistani Stability and the Bane of State Authority

A fundamental political fact about Pakistan is that the state, whoever claims to lead it, is weak, and society in its various forms is immensely strong.

Weak State, Strong Society. The Pakistani state is weak, while society, particularly kinship networks, is immensely strong. This dynamic shapes the country's political landscape, with individuals and groups using their societal power to plunder the state for patronage and favors.

Kinship Networks. Kinship networks are the most important foci of loyalty for most Pakistanis, influencing everything from affection and responsibility to asking for favors and protection. This system, while contributing to social stability, also undermines the state's ability to enforce laws and collect taxes.

Anti-Revolutionary Force. Kinship plays a vital role in maintaining the dominance of the elites and softening class domination. By enforcing responsibility and circulating patronage, kinship acts as a critical anti-revolutionary force, frustrating attempts at radical change from both socialist and Islamist movements.

4. The Negotiated State: How Pakistan Really Works

In Pakistan, only the armed forces work even in the second half of this way. For the rest of the state, the law, the judiciary and the police, authority is a matter of constant negotiation, with violence or the threat of it very often one of the cards that can be played on either side.

Authority is Negotiated. Unlike Western models, authority in Pakistan's state institutions is not hierarchical but negotiated, with violence or the threat of it often playing a role. This dynamic affects the law, judiciary, and police, making them susceptible to influence from powerful individuals and groups.

Democracy's Distorted Reflection. Democracy in Pakistan reflects the distribution of social, economic, cultural, and political power within society. The weakness of democratic development is evident in the lack of modern mass political parties and the continued dominance of dynastic politics.

Corruption and Patronage. Corruption in Pakistan is intertwined with patronage and kinship, making it a fundamental aspect of the political system. Attempts to eliminate corruption would require gutting the very fabric of Pakistani society, something that only radical Islamist revolutionaries would attempt.

5. A Gamble on the Indus: Pakistan's Looming Water Crisis

The entire Pakistani state can be described as ‘a gamble on the Indus’ – and climate change means that over the next century this may be a gamble against increasingly long odds.

Water Scarcity. Pakistan faces a severe water crisis due to its arid climate, heavy reliance on the Indus River system, and rapid population growth. This crisis poses a long-term threat to the country's stability and survival.

Climate Change. Climate change exacerbates the water crisis, with potential long-term effects including glacier melt, increased monsoon rains, and ecological disasters. These changes could overwhelm Pakistan's infrastructure and lead to widespread social and economic disruption.

Urgent Action Needed. Addressing the water crisis requires immediate and intensive efforts to improve water conservation, repair irrigation systems, and promote reforestation. International aid should prioritize these measures to mitigate the existential threat facing Pakistan.

6. The Historical Struggle for Muslim South Asia: Echoes of the Past in Present Conflicts

Before 1947, the glorious history of Muslim rule and cultural achievement in South Asia helped make it impossible for Muslims to accept a subordinate position in what they saw as a future Hindu-dominated India.

Legacy of Muslim Rule. The history of Muslim rule in South Asia, marked by periods of great power and cultural achievement, has shaped Muslim identity and aspirations. This legacy continues to influence Pakistani attitudes and policies, particularly in relation to India.

Decline and Resistance. The decline of Muslim power from the eighteenth century onward led to various religious and cultural responses, including Islamist movements aimed at strengthening Muslim unity and resisting Western influence. These historical patterns continue to resonate in contemporary Pakistan.

"Islam in Danger." A pervasive sense of "Islam in danger" has fueled mass mobilization and violence against non-Muslims in South Asia. This sentiment, rooted in historical grievances and contemporary geopolitical concerns, remains a potent force in Pakistani society.

7. Religious and Secular Responses: A Complex Tapestry of Resistance and Modernization

As elsewhere in the Muslim world, the decline of Muslim power from the early eighteenth century on produced a complex set of religious and cultural responses – the great majority of which, however, had the same ultimate goal, namely to strengthen the power of Muslims in the face of their enemies, and to strengthen Muslim unity in the face of the Muslims’ own divisions.

Diverse Responses. Muslim responses to British colonialism ranged from religious resistance to Westernization, each with the goal of strengthening Muslim communities. These responses continue to shape Pakistani politics and public debate.

Sir Syed Ahmed Khan. Sir Syed advocated for collaboration with the British and the adoption of Western modernity to compete with Hindus. This tradition has influenced Pakistani civil service and educated wealthy classes.

Islamist Tradition. The Islamist tradition, rooted in Shah Waliullah's teachings, opposed collaboration with the British and advocated for anti-colonial resistance. This tradition has inspired Islamist political parties and movements in Pakistan.

8. The Military's Unique Position: An Army with a State

The only institution which has succeeded to some extent in resisting this in the name of state loyalty and professional meritocracy is the army – and you could say that it has managed this in part only through turning itself into a kind of giant clan, serving its members’ collective interests at the expense of the state and society, and underpinned to some extent by ancient local kinship groups among the north-western Punjabis and Pathans.

Meritocracy and Clan. The Pakistani army is unique in its attempt to resist kinship-based politics, establishing a meritocratic system. However, it has also become a "giant clan," serving its members' interests and relying on kinship groups among north-western Punjabis and Pathans.

Discipline and Unity. The army's discipline and unity make it the strongest institution in Pakistan. This strength allows it to seize power from weaker civilian institutions, but also makes it a stabilizing force against internal and external threats.

Moral and Emotional Pressures. The only thing that can destroy this discipline and unity is if enough Pakistani soldiers are faced with moral and emotional pressures powerful enough to crack their discipline, and that would mean very powerful pressures indeed. In fact, they would have to be put in a position where their duty to defend Pakistan and their conscience and honour as Muslims clashed directly with their obedience to their commanders.

9. The Judiciary and Justice System: A Distorted Reflection of Power

Below the level of the High Courts all is corruption. Neither the facts nor the law in the case have real bearing on the outcome. It all depends on who you know, who has influence and where you put your money.

Corruption and Inefficiency. The Pakistani judicial system is plagued by corruption, delay, and inefficiency, making it inaccessible to ordinary citizens. Outcomes are often determined by influence and bribery rather than facts and law.

Customary Law. Customary laws, reflecting local traditions and kinship loyalties, often override state law and the Shariah. These laws, while providing a sense of community justice, can also perpetuate inequality and oppression, particularly against women.

Yearning for Justice. Despite the flaws of the state system, Pakistanis deeply desire a better form of justice. This yearning fuels support for the Shariah and for reform movements aimed at improving the fairness and accessibility of the legal system.

10. The Provinces: A Patchwork of Identities and Grievances

Regional identity may be growing in political importance, with the 2008 elections showing a lower vote for the PPP in Punjab, and a lower vote for the Punjab-based Muslim League in other provinces.

Regionalism. Pakistan's provinces have distinct identities and grievances, influencing their political dynamics. Regionalism is growing in importance, with provinces showing less loyalty to national parties.

Punjab's Dominance. Punjab, with its large population and economic strength, dominates Pakistan. However, its power is qualified by the need to compromise with other provinces and the growing importance of regional identities.

Sindh's Complexities. Sindh is marked by ethnic divisions, economic disparities, and a strong tradition of Sufism. The province faces challenges related to water scarcity, political instability, and the influence of tribal leaders.

Last updated: March 1, 2025