Rule and Ruin

1. The Golden Age of Republican Moderation (1950s-early 1960s)

"No America without democracy, no democracy without politics, no parties without compromise and moderation."

Pragmatism reigned. In the mid-20th century, the Republican Party was a broad coalition, not an ideological monolith, embracing diverse viewpoints from liberal to conservative. This era, epitomized by President Dwight Eisenhower's "Modern Republicanism," prioritized pragmatic governance and national consensus over rigid ideological purity. Eisenhower, a popular figure, believed in a bell-shaped curve of political opinion, with the vast majority in the moderate middle.

Dewey's influence. Figures like New York Governor Thomas Dewey championed a "me-too" Republicanism that accepted and sought to improve upon New Deal reforms, focusing on efficient government, social programs, and an internationalist foreign policy. This approach appealed to middle-class professionals and urban voters, demonstrating that Republicans could win in diverse areas by offering constructive, rather than purely oppositional, solutions. The party's internal divisions, though present, were often managed through compromise.

A changing landscape. The 1950s were defined by broad political consensus, with both major parties containing a wide range of opinions. Many believed this coalitional nature of American parties prevented extremism, unlike European systems. However, beneath the surface, a new breed of conservatism was emerging, poised to challenge this moderate dominance.

2. The Rise of Ideological Conservatism and the 1964 Goldwater Debacle

"Goldwater’s warning to moderates at the ’64 GOP national convention that they had to support 'extremism in the defense of liberty' or leave the party was a classic expression of rule-or-ruin politics."

The New Right emerges. A new, ideologically driven conservatism, distinct from Robert Taft's traditional Midwestern stalwartism, gained traction in the 1950s, fueled by anti-Communism (McCarthyism) and resentment of Eisenhower's moderation. This movement, centered around figures like William F. Buckley Jr. and organizations like Young Americans for Freedom (YAF), sought to transform the GOP into a purely conservative vehicle, purging those who resisted.

Goldwater's takeover. By 1964, this conservative movement, through meticulous grassroots organization and a "rule or ruin" mentality, captured the Republican Party machinery, culminating in Barry Goldwater's presidential nomination. Goldwater's platform was uncompromisingly conservative, advocating:

• Opposition to the Civil Rights Act of 1964
• Making Social Security voluntary
• Aggressive foreign policy, including potential use of nuclear weapons

Disastrous defeat. Goldwater's extremism alienated mainstream voters, leading to a landslide defeat against Lyndon Johnson, carrying only five Deep South states and Arizona. This electoral catastrophe, which also cost the GOP numerous Congressional and state seats, was a stark repudiation of ideological purity and the "Southern strategy" at the national level, though it inadvertently laid groundwork for future Republican gains in the South.

3. Moderates' Post-1964 Resurgence and New Ideas

"Progressive Republicans must have information to refute any unreal claims on behalf of the Southern strategy or allegations against progressive Republicans."

Rebuilding from ashes. The devastating 1964 defeat spurred moderates to action, recognizing the need to reclaim the party from ideological extremists. Organizations like the Ripon Society emerged, advocating for a "fighting faith" of progressive Republicanism that could counter both conservative zealotry and Democratic liberalism. They aimed to provide intellectual rigor and policy alternatives.

New initiatives. Moderates pushed for constructive solutions to national problems, distinct from both the New Deal and Goldwater's anti-government stance. Key proposals included:

• Federal revenue sharing: Returning federal tax dollars to states for local control.
• Negative income tax: Replacing welfare with a guaranteed minimum income, incentivizing work.
• All-volunteer military: Ending the draft, a concept later adopted by Nixon.
• Strong civil rights enforcement: Upholding the party's Lincolnian heritage.

Congressional gains. The 1966 midterm elections saw a resurgence of moderate Republicans, with significant gains in governorships and Congressional seats. Figures like Michigan's George Romney, Massachusetts' Edward Brooke, and Illinois' Charles Percy embodied a new generation of appealing, centrist leaders, suggesting a path back to national competitiveness for the GOP.

4. The Failure of Moderate Leadership and Romney's Downfall

"Moderates are moderates. Raising the sword of moderation and marching down a street is a contradiction in terms."

Disunity and missed opportunities. Despite their intellectual ferment and electoral gains, moderates struggled to unite behind a single presidential candidate in 1968. George Romney, Michigan's popular governor, emerged as the strongest contender, but faced internal divisions within his campaign and a lack of concerted support from other moderate leaders.

Romney's vulnerabilities. Romney, a devout Mormon, struggled to connect with a secularized media and electorate, and his faith was often caricatured. His shifting stance on the Vietnam War, culminating in the infamous "brainwashing" gaffe, severely damaged his credibility and poll numbers. This gaffe, though later vindicated by revelations of administration deception, proved politically fatal.

A critical juncture. Romney's withdrawal from the race in early 1968 marked a critical turning point. He represented the moderates' last best chance to rally around one of their own and build a national movement. Their inability to overcome internal rivalries and rally behind a unified front left the field open for Richard Nixon, who skillfully positioned himself as the pragmatic centrist.

5. Nixon's Centrist Policies Amidst Political Polarization

"Nixon’s belief in the need for toughness, even ruthlessness, in the conduct of government eventually won out, leading him to despise most moderate Republicans as pious weaklings."

A dual nature. Richard Nixon, a complex figure, often pursued policies favored by moderates while employing conservative rhetoric and tactics. His administration implemented significant reforms:

• Environmental protection: Creation of the EPA, Clean Air Act.
• Welfare reform: Proposed Family Assistance Plan (negative income tax).
• Foreign policy breakthroughs: Opening to China, détente with the Soviet Union.
• Civil rights enforcement: Desegregation of Southern schools, Philadelphia Plan for affirmative action.

Antagonism and alienation. Despite these achievements, Nixon harbored deep suspicion and contempt for the moderate establishment, viewing them as weak and elitist. He deliberately used figures like Spiro Agnew to polarize public opinion, attacking "effete snobs" and "radiclibs," which alienated moderates and intellectuals. This rhetorical strategy, combined with actions like the Carswell Supreme Court nomination, deepened the chasm between Nixon and the moderate wing.

Watergate's impact. The Watergate scandal, a culmination of Nixon's "dark side" and his administration's abuse of power, further eroded public trust in government and damaged the Republican brand. While moderates like Howard Baker played a key role in exposing the scandal, the fallout disproportionately hurt the GOP, which was increasingly associated with Nixon's conservative rhetoric, despite his centrist policies.

6. The Erosion of Moderate Influence and the Rise of the New Right

"The Republican Party is not built on principles, it’s a tradition maintained by effete gentlemen of the northeastern Establishment who play games with other effete gentlemen who call themselves Democrats."

Post-Watergate shifts. Gerald Ford's presidency, with Nelson Rockefeller as Vice President, briefly signaled a moderate resurgence, but the 1974 elections saw significant Republican losses, particularly among conservatives. However, the underlying trends continued to favor the right. Moderate donors withdrew from politics, and grassroots organizations like the Ripon Society dwindled in influence and funding.

Conservative infrastructure. The 1970s witnessed the robust growth of a conservative infrastructure, including think tanks (Heritage Foundation), lobbying groups (Conservative Caucus), and direct mail fundraising, which effectively mobilized a dedicated base. This contrasted sharply with the moderates' declining organizational capacity and their struggle to define a compelling identity beyond pragmatism.

Reagan's challenge. Ronald Reagan's challenge to Ford in 1976, though unsuccessful, demonstrated the growing power of the conservative movement. Reagan's populist appeal, particularly his opposition to the Panama Canal treaties and his ability to articulate a clear, bold conservative vision, resonated with a segment of the electorate tired of perceived liberal overreach and government inefficiency.

7. Reagan's Unifying Conservatism and the Moderates' Dilemma

"Our people look for a cause to believe in. What was needed was not a third party but a revitalized GOP, 'raising a banner of no pale pastels, but bold colors which make it unmistakably clear where we stand.'"

A new consensus. Ronald Reagan's 1980 victory marked a turning point, as he skillfully united disparate conservative factions and appealed to a broader electorate. He framed conservatism in an optimistic, accessible way, focusing on economic issues like tax cuts and deregulation, which found common ground with many fiscally conservative moderates.

Moderate contributions. Surprisingly, some moderate Republicans, including former Ripon Society members, found common ground with Reagan's economic vision, particularly supply-side economics. Figures like Jack Kemp and William Steiger championed tax cuts and incentives for investment, believing these policies could achieve progressive goals like urban revitalization and job creation through conservative means.

The "big tent" approach. Reagan, unlike Goldwater, understood the importance of party unity and made efforts to include moderates, appointing George H.W. Bush as his running mate and giving moderates prominent roles. However, the growing influence of the religious right and the party's increasingly conservative platform on social issues, such as abortion and the Equal Rights Amendment, alienated many moderates, leading some to leave the party.

8. The Final Collapse: From Bush to the Tea Party

"By contrast, Castle’s experience, competence, reasonableness, and moderation all made him seem like an emotionless drone of the status quo—'an establishment android,' in one sneering description."

Bush's moderate leanings. George H.W. Bush, despite his conservative rhetoric, often governed as a moderate, pursuing bipartisan solutions on issues like environmental protection and deficit reduction. His decision to raise taxes in 1990, however, alienated conservatives and contributed to his 1992 defeat, reinforcing the notion that tax increases were political suicide for Republicans.

Gingrich and polarization. Newt Gingrich's "Republican Revolution" of 1994 solidified conservative control of Congress and ushered in an era of aggressive partisan confrontation. Gingrich's tactics, while initially successful in achieving a Republican majority, ultimately led to increased polarization and the marginalization of moderates within the party. The "Contract with America" focused on conservative principles, leaving little room for moderate input.

The Tea Party's final blow. The early 21st century saw the near-extinction of moderate Republicans, culminating in the rise of the Tea Party movement. This populist, anti-establishment force, echoing earlier conservative insurgencies, aggressively targeted moderate incumbents, viewing compromise and pragmatism as weaknesses. The defeat of figures like Mike Castle in Delaware in 2010, despite his popularity and centrist appeal, symbolized the complete triumph of ideological purity over moderation within the GOP.

9. Strategic and Structural Factors Behind Moderation's Decline

"The conversion of one of America’s two major parties into an ideological vehicle, against the preferences of many of the party’s own voters, is a phenomenon without precedent in American history."

Demographic shifts. The population and political power shifted from the moderate Northeast and Midwest to the more conservative South and West (the "Sunbelt"), eroding the traditional geographic base of Republican moderation. This demographic realignment fundamentally altered the party's composition.

Organizational and financial disparities. Moderates consistently failed to build a robust grassroots infrastructure, donor networks, or media outlets comparable to those developed by conservatives. Their top-down approach, relying on established leaders and wealthy patrons, proved insufficient against the bottom-up, ideologically driven mobilization of the New Right.

Electoral mechanics. Changes in the political system, such as partisan redistricting and the proliferation of binding presidential primaries and caucuses, disproportionately favored ideologically committed activists. These low-turnout elections allowed well-mobilized conservative bases to dominate nominations, making it increasingly difficult for moderates to win primaries, even if they had broader general election appeal.

10. The Enduring Legacy and Warning for American Politics

"If American politics can be compared to an ecosystem, then the disappearance of the moderate Republicans represents a catastrophic loss of species diversity."

Loss of balance. The near-disappearance of moderate Republicans has profoundly impacted American politics, leading to increased partisan polarization and a decline in bipartisanship and compromise. The GOP's transformation into an ideological vehicle, rather than a broad coalition, has made effective governance more challenging, particularly on complex issues requiring consensus.

Unrepresented values. Moderates historically championed values now underrepresented in the political discourse:

• Good government: Emphasizing efficiency, fiscal responsibility, and competence over ideological purity.
• Civil liberties and rights: Often defending these against both Democratic and conservative Republican opposition.
• Pragmatic problem-solving: A willingness to examine issues on their merits and seek workable solutions.

A warning for the future. The book concludes with a stark warning: a nation as diverse and complex as the United States requires both major parties to be serious, responsible governing entities. The absence of moderation from one, or both, parties risks social instability and undermines the nation's ability to address critical long-term challenges, echoing the Founding Fathers' fears of unchecked factionalism.