Strategic Vision

1. The West's global dominance is fading as power shifts eastward

The changing distribution of global power and the new phenomenon of massive political awakening intensify, each in its own way, the volatility of contemporary international relations.

Power shift to the East. The global center of gravity is shifting from the West to the East, particularly to China and India. This shift is driven by rapid economic growth, technological advancement, and increasing political influence of Asian nations.

Global political awakening. Simultaneously, a massive political awakening is occurring worldwide, especially in developing countries. This phenomenon is characterized by:

• Increased political consciousness among previously passive populations
• Growing demands for dignity, economic opportunity, and political participation
• Potential for social unrest and challenges to existing power structures

The combination of these trends is creating a more volatile and unpredictable international environment, challenging the established Western-dominated global order.

2. America's domestic challenges threaten its global leadership

America is simultaneously threatened by a slide backward into systemic obsolescence resulting from the lack of any forward progress on social, economic, and political reform and by the consequences of a misguided foreign policy that in recent years has been ominously out of touch with the postimperial age.

Domestic vulnerabilities. America faces several critical internal challenges that threaten its global standing:

• Unsustainable national debt
• Flawed financial system prone to crises
• Widening income inequality and stagnating social mobility
• Decaying national infrastructure
• Public ignorance about global affairs
• Gridlocked and partisan political system

Foreign policy missteps. The United States has engaged in costly and counterproductive military interventions, particularly in the Middle East. These actions have:

• Damaged America's global reputation
• Diverted resources from domestic needs
• Failed to achieve lasting strategic objectives

To maintain its global leadership, America must address these domestic challenges and recalibrate its foreign policy to align with the realities of the 21st century.

3. A weakened America could lead to global instability and conflicts

If America falters, the world is unlikely to be dominated by a single preeminent successor, such as China. While a sudden and massive crisis of the American system would produce a fast-moving chain reaction leading to global political and economic chaos, a steady drift by America into increasingly pervasive decay and/or into endlessly widening warfare with Islam would be unlikely to produce, even by 2025, the "coronation" of an effective global successor.

Power vacuum consequences. A decline in American power and influence could lead to:

• Increased regional conflicts and power struggles
• Weakening of international institutions and norms
• Greater vulnerability for smaller states
• Potential arms races and nuclear proliferation

No clear successor. China, despite its rising power, is not yet ready to assume America's global role. Other potential powers like Europe, Russia, and India lack the comprehensive capabilities to fill the void.

The resulting global disorder could manifest in various ways:

• Intensified rivalry between China and India
• Increased instability in the Middle East
• Territorial disputes in East Asia
• Economic disruptions and financial crises
  Without a stabilizing American presence, these conflicts could escalate and intertwine, creating a dangerous and unpredictable global environment.

4. The US must revitalize itself to maintain its global influence

America's role in the world will continue to be essential in the years to come. Indeed, the ongoing changes in the distribution of global power and mounting global strife make it all the more imperative that America not retreat into an ignorant garrison-state mentality or wallow in self-righteous cultural hedonism.

Domestic renewal. To maintain its global leadership, America must focus on:

• Reducing national debt and reforming the financial system
• Investing in education and infrastructure
• Addressing income inequality and social mobility
• Improving public understanding of global affairs
• Breaking political gridlock and fostering bipartisanship

Leveraging strengths. America should capitalize on its enduring assets:

• Overall economic strength and innovative potential
• Demographic advantages compared to aging competitors
• Capacity for reactive mobilization in times of crisis
• Favorable geographic position and natural resources
• Continued appeal of democratic values and institutions

By addressing its vulnerabilities while leveraging its strengths, America can reinvigorate its domestic foundations and project renewed confidence on the global stage. This renewal is crucial for maintaining the stability and prosperity of the international system.

5. America should promote a larger, more vital West including Russia and Turkey

A larger and more vital West needs to be more than a renewal of historical confidence in the universal relevance of Western democratic values. It must be the result of a deliberate effort by both America and Europe to embrace more formally Turkey as well as Russia in a larger framework of cooperation based on such shared values and on their genuine democratic commitment.

Expanding the West. The United States should lead efforts to create a larger, more dynamic Western community by:

• Strengthening transatlantic ties and NATO
• Supporting deeper European integration
• Engaging Turkey and Russia in a process of democratic transformation and economic integration

Benefits of inclusion. Bringing Turkey and Russia into the Western fold would:

• Enhance global stability and security
• Expand markets and economic opportunities
• Promote democratic values and institutions
• Counter potential sources of conflict and extremism

Long-term vision. This process will require patience, persistence, and strategic clarity. Key steps include:

• Encouraging Turkey's EU membership process
• Supporting Russia's democratic evolution and economic modernization
• Developing new institutional frameworks for cooperation and consultation
• Fostering people-to-people exchanges and cultural understanding

By pursuing this ambitious vision, America can help create a more cohesive and influential Western community capable of addressing global challenges and shaping the international order.

6. The US must balance and engage with a rising China and Asia

The foregoing could also precipitate a fundamental change in China's structure of political power. The Chinese army (the People's Liberation Army) is the only nationwide organization capable of asserting national control. It is also heavily involved in the direct management of major economic assets. In the event of a serious decline in the vitality of the existing political leadership and of a rise in populist emotions, the military would most likely assume effective control.

Engaging China. America must pursue a nuanced strategy of engagement with China that:

• Acknowledges China's legitimate interests and rising power
• Encourages China's peaceful integration into the international system
• Maintains a strong US presence in Asia to balance Chinese influence

Regional stability. The US should work to:

• Strengthen alliances with Japan, South Korea, and other Asian partners
• Promote reconciliation between China and its neighbors
• Encourage regional economic integration and cooperation

Managing potential conflicts. Key areas of focus include:

• Taiwan's status and cross-strait relations
• Maritime disputes in the South and East China Seas
• North Korea's nuclear program and regional stability

China's internal dynamics. America must remain aware of China's domestic challenges:

• Political succession and potential instability
• Rising nationalism and its impact on foreign policy
• Economic disparities and social tensions

By carefully balancing engagement and deterrence, the US can help shape a stable Asian order that accommodates China's rise while protecting American interests and values.

7. America's dual role: Unifier of the West, balancer in the East

Thus, America's central challenge and its geopolitically imperative mission over the next several decades is to revitalize itself and to promote a larger and more vital West while simultaneously buttressing a complex balance in the East, so as to accommodate constructively China's rising global status and avert global chaos.

Dual strategy. America must pursue a two-pronged approach to global engagement:

1. In the West: Unifier and leader

   • Strengthen transatlantic ties and NATO
   • Support European integration
   • Promote democratic values and institutions
   • Integrate Turkey and Russia into the Western community

2. In the East: Balancer and conciliator

   • Maintain strong alliances with Japan, South Korea, and others
   • Engage constructively with China while hedging against potential threats
   • Promote regional stability and cooperation
   • Mediate conflicts and encourage reconciliation

Global implications. This dual role is essential for:

• Maintaining global stability and preventing conflicts
• Promoting economic growth and development
• Addressing transnational challenges like climate change and terrorism
• Shaping a rules-based international order that reflects both Western values and Asian realities

By successfully executing this dual strategy, America can help create a more stable, prosperous, and cooperative global system that accommodates the rise of new powers while preserving the best elements of the existing order.

Last updated: December 15, 2024