The Avoidable War

1. US-China Relations: A History of Mutual Distrust and Misunderstanding

Chinese leaders have long made it their business to understand America in a manner that their American counterparts have rarely felt the need to reciprocate.

Asymmetrical Understanding. From the Opium Wars to the present day, China has consistently prioritized understanding the United States, viewing it as a potential existential threat. Conversely, American elites have often lacked a similar sense of urgency, leading to miscalculations and missed opportunities in the relationship. This asymmetry stems from cultural differences, historical baggage, and the sheer complexity of navigating China's political system.

Historical baggage. The US-China relationship is burdened by a history of unequal treaties, Western imperialism, and mutual ideological suspicion. Events like the Opium Wars, the Boxer Rebellion, and the Chinese Exclusion Act have left lasting scars on the Chinese psyche, fostering a sense of resentment and distrust towards the West. The US support for the Nationalist government and subsequent containment policies further solidified this perception.

Evolving dynamics. Despite periods of cooperation, such as during World War II and the Cold War, the fundamental differences in political systems and values have always been a source of tension. The rise of China as an economic and military power has only exacerbated these tensions, leading to a new era of strategic competition and uncertainty.

2. Xi Jinping's Worldview: Ten Concentric Circles of Interest

To my mind, they can best be understood as ten concentric circles of interests, starting with the most vital (which are, not coincidentally, those closest to home) and expanding outward from China to encompass greater and more global ambitions.

A layered approach. Xi Jinping's worldview can be understood as a series of interconnected priorities, ranging from domestic political control to global ambitions. These concentric circles provide a framework for analyzing Chinese foreign policy and understanding Beijing's motivations. The ten circles are:

• Staying in Power
• Securing National Unity
• Ensuring Economic Prosperity
• Environmental Sustainability
• Modernizing the Military
• Managing China's Neighborhood
• Securing China's Maritime Periphery
• Going West—the Belt and Road Initiative
• Increasing Chinese Leverage Across the Globe
• Changing the Global Rules-Based Order

Interconnected priorities. Each circle builds upon the previous one, with domestic stability and economic growth serving as the foundation for China's regional and global ambitions. This interconnectedness highlights the importance of understanding China's internal dynamics in order to grasp its foreign policy decisions.

A global vision. Xi's worldview extends far beyond China's borders, encompassing a desire to reshape the international order and promote a more multipolar world. This ambition is driven by a belief in China's unique historical destiny and a desire to create a more just and equitable global system.

3. The Primacy of Power: Xi's Focus on the CCP and Personal Rule

Core to the CCP is its overriding determination to remain in power.

Leninist imperative. The Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) primary goal is to maintain its grip on power, viewing it as essential for China's stability and progress. This determination shapes all aspects of Chinese policy, both domestic and foreign. Xi Jinping has consolidated his power to an unprecedented degree, surpassing even Deng Xiaoping in his control over the party and state.

Centralization of authority. Xi has reversed the trend of decentralization that characterized the post-Mao era, reasserting the party's control over all aspects of Chinese society, including the economy, military, and culture. This centralization of authority is driven by a desire to ensure stability and prevent the kind of political fragmentation that led to the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Ideological control. Xi has also emphasized the importance of ideological purity, promoting a blend of Marxism-Leninism, Chinese tradition, and nationalism to bolster the party's legitimacy. This ideological emphasis serves to counter Western liberal values and maintain social cohesion in a rapidly changing society.

4. National Unity as a Core Interest: Taiwan and Border Security

Maintaining firm control over Tibet, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Hong Kong is nonnegotiable for the CCP.

Territorial integrity. The CCP views national unity and territorial integrity as paramount, considering any challenge to China's sovereignty as an existential threat. This includes maintaining control over Tibet, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Hong Kong, as well as asserting China's claims in the East and South China Seas.

The Taiwan question. The "return" of Taiwan to mainland control is a central goal of the CCP, viewed as the final step in completing the Chinese revolution. Xi Jinping has adopted a more assertive approach to Taiwan, increasing military pressure and diplomatic isolation in an effort to compel reunification.

Border security. China's vast land borders also present a security challenge, requiring Beijing to maintain strong relationships with its neighbors and address potential sources of instability, such as ethnic tensions and cross-border terrorism. The Belt and Road Initiative is, in part, aimed at securing China's western periphery by promoting economic development and regional integration.

5. Economic Prosperity and Sustainability: Balancing Growth with Control

Continued economic prosperity forms a key part of the unofficial social contract between the party and the people.

The social contract. The CCP's legitimacy rests on its ability to deliver economic prosperity and improve the living standards of the Chinese people. This unspoken social contract requires the party to maintain a delicate balance between economic growth and political control.

Environmental challenges. China faces significant environmental challenges, including air and water pollution, soil degradation, and climate change. Addressing these challenges is essential for maintaining social stability and ensuring the long-term sustainability of China's economic development.

The New Development Concept. Xi Jinping has introduced a "New Development Concept" that prioritizes quality over quantity, emphasizing innovation, sustainability, and inclusive growth. This new approach seeks to address the imbalances and inequalities that have emerged during China's rapid economic expansion.

6. Military Modernization: Projecting Power and Challenging US Dominance

Xi sees China’s military and its technological capacity as the linchpins not only of the party’s security but also of China’s ability to project power throughout the region and the world.

Military strength. Xi Jinping views a strong military as essential for protecting China's sovereignty, securing its interests, and projecting its power on the global stage. He has overseen a comprehensive modernization of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), transforming it into a more professional, technologically advanced, and capable fighting force.

Challenging US dominance. China's military modernization is aimed, in part, at challenging US dominance in the Indo-Pacific region and creating a more multipolar world. This includes developing advanced weapons systems, expanding its naval presence, and enhancing its cyber and space capabilities.

Regional ambitions. China's military modernization is also driven by a desire to secure its territorial claims in the East and South China Seas and to deter any potential intervention by the United States or its allies. The PLA's growing capabilities are altering the regional balance of power and raising concerns about the potential for conflict.

7. Navigating the Global Order: Competition, Cooperation, and Redefinition

We can allow the primordial dimensions of Thucydidean logic to simply take their natural course, ultimately culminating in crisis, conflict, or even war.

A new framework. The US and China must develop a joint strategic framework capable of navigating each other's redlines, accepting strategic competition in non-lethal areas, and defining areas for continued cooperation. This framework would not depend on trust but on sophisticated national verification systems.

Principles for coexistence. The framework should include:

• Agreeing on principles and procedures for navigating each other’s strategic redlines
• Mutually identifying the areas of nonlethal national security policy where full-blown strategic competition is accepted as the new normal
• Defining those areas where continued strategic cooperation is both recognized and encouraged

Managed competition. This framework would not prevent crisis, conflict, or war, but it would reduce their likelihood. It would also rely exclusively on sophisticated national verification systems already deployed by each country.

8. The Problem of Strategic Trust: Perceptions and Misperceptions

There is a deep belief in the capitals of both countries that the diplomatic formulations used by each side about the other are no longer believable, that they are a diplomatic fiction, detached from the world of strategic fact, where an entirely different reality has unfolded.

Erosion of trust. A significant obstacle to improving US-China relations is the deep-seated distrust and misperceptions that exist on both sides. Each country views the other with suspicion, questioning their motives and intentions.

Differing worldviews. These misperceptions are rooted in fundamental differences in political systems, values, and historical experiences. China sees the US as a hegemonic power seeking to contain its rise, while the US views China as an authoritarian state seeking to undermine the liberal international order.

Breaking the cycle. Overcoming this cycle of distrust requires a greater effort to understand each other's perspectives and to communicate intentions clearly and transparently. This includes acknowledging past mistakes and addressing legitimate concerns.

9. America's Emerging Response: Competition and Coalition Building

There is, therefore, both a moral and a practical obligation for friends of China and friends of the United States to think through what has become the single hardest question of international relations of our century: how to preserve the peace and prosperity we have secured over the last three-quarters of a century while recognizing the reality of changing power relativities between Washington and Beijing.

A new consensus. The US is developing a new strategic approach to China, characterized by competition, deterrence, and selective cooperation. This approach reflects a growing recognition that China's rise presents both opportunities and challenges for the United States.

Rebuilding alliances. A key element of this strategy is strengthening alliances and partnerships with countries in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond. This includes working with Japan, South Korea, Australia, India, and other like-minded nations to counter China's growing influence.

Areas of competition. The US is focused on competing with China in areas such as trade, technology, military modernization, and political influence. This competition is aimed at preserving American leadership and ensuring a level playing field for US businesses and workers.

10. The Decade Ahead: Scenarios for US-China Relations

At this stage in the unfolding dynamics of the US-China relationship, it is relatively easy to envisage a flow of events that mutates into a sort of Cold War 2.0, which, in turn, runs the risk of triggering a hot one.

Uncertainty prevails. The future of US-China relations is highly uncertain, with a range of potential scenarios ranging from peaceful coexistence to armed conflict. The outcome will depend on a complex interplay of factors, including domestic politics, economic trends, and strategic decisions made by leaders in both countries.

Potential scenarios:

• China succeeds in taking Taiwan by force
• The United States defeats a Chinese military action against Taiwan
• Chinese and American military stalemate over Taiwan
• Conflict between China and the United States in the South China Sea
• Washington and Taipei together succeed in deterring Beijing from the use of force against Taiwan

Avoiding the worst. The key to navigating this uncertain future is to manage the risks of escalation and maintain open lines of communication. This requires a clear understanding of each other's redlines and a commitment to peaceful resolution of disputes.

11. Managed Strategic Competition: A Framework for the Future

The purpose of this book is not to provide advice to either side on how to prevail against the other in some sort of final economic, technological, and military shootout at the O.K. Corral.

A new approach. The US and China need to move beyond the current cycle of distrust and confrontation and develop a new framework for managing their relationship. This framework should be based on the principles of managed strategic competition, which recognizes the reality of competition while seeking to avoid conflict.

Key elements of managed competition:

• Establishing clear rules of the road for managing disputes and avoiding escalation
• Identifying areas for cooperation on shared challenges, such as climate change and global health
• Maintaining open lines of communication and dialogue at all levels

A shared future. By adopting a framework of managed strategic competition, the US and China can create a more stable and predictable relationship that benefits both countries and the world. This requires a commitment to diplomacy, transparency, and a willingness to compromise.

Last updated: March 17, 2025