The Hundred-Year Marathon

1. China's Century of Humiliation Fuels its Ambitions

The notion of China’s special position in the hierarchy of nations long predates the rise of the Chinese Communist Party.

Historical Grievances. China's ambition to reclaim its "rightful place" atop the global hierarchy is rooted in a deep-seated sense of grievance stemming from a "century of humiliation" at the hands of Western powers, beginning with the Opium Wars in 1839. This historical narrative, actively encouraged by China's leaders, fuels a desire to avenge past injustices and restore China's former glory.

Darwinian Concepts. Chinese intellectuals embraced Darwinian concepts of competition and survival of the fittest as a means to avenge the humiliation inflicted by the West. This translated into a strategic mindset emphasizing struggle, deception, and the elimination of rivals in the pursuit of national strength.

Confucian Hierarchy. The Chinese worldview, influenced by Confucian ideals, emphasizes hierarchy and the belief that there can only be one ruler at the top. This reinforces the ambition to become the dominant global power, replacing the United States in a new world order.

2. Warring States Period Provides China's Strategic Playbook

The Chinese ying pai hawks do not get lost in their long, complex history; instead, they have sought specific lessons from historical successes and failures that they can use to win the Marathon.

Strategic Lessons. China's leaders draw key lessons from the Spring Autumn and Warring States periods, a time of intense power politics, intrigue, and warfare among rival states. These lessons, often hidden from Western view, inform China's approach to strategy, emphasizing deception, patience, and the manipulation of opponents.

Nine Elements of Chinese Strategy:

• Induce complacency
• Manipulate opponent's advisors
• Be patient
• Steal opponent's technology
• Military might is not critical
• Hegemon will take reckless action
• Never lose sight of shi
• Establish metrics
• Avoid encirclement

The Concept of Shi. At the heart of Chinese strategy is "shi," a difficult-to-translate concept referring to the alignment of forces and the propensity of things to happen. Skilled strategists exploit "shi" to turn events to their advantage, often through deception and manipulation.

3. China Masterfully Manipulated Nixon's Opening

In the case of each American president, Beijing’s strategy seems to have been a product of brilliant improvisation—constant tactical shifts combined with shrewd assessments of the internal differences among the main players in Washington debates.

China's Initiative. The opening of U.S. relations with China in 1971 was not solely an American initiative, but rather a carefully orchestrated move by China to exploit the Sino-Soviet split and gain a new benefactor. Mao Zedong and his advisors skillfully played on American fears of the Soviet Union to extract aid and assistance.

Key Strategies:

• Feigning weakness and dependence
• Offering cooperation against a common rival
• Manipulating perceptions of China's intentions

Larry Wu-Tai Chin. The Chinese benefited from a well-placed spy, Larry Wu-Tai Chin, within the CIA, who provided valuable intelligence on U.S. strategic thinking and planning. This allowed China to anticipate and counter American moves, maximizing its gains from the relationship.

4. China's Message Police Control the Narrative

The comment was remarkable. China’s leaders are extremely careful with their language, especially in public, far more so than Western politicians.

Information Control. China's leaders maintain a sophisticated system to control the narrative about their country, both domestically and internationally. This involves censoring dissenting voices, promoting a carefully crafted image of China, and suppressing information that contradicts their strategic goals.

Key Tactics:

• Rewriting history to portray the U.S. as a long-term adversary
• Suppressing information about human rights abuses and political dissent
• Promoting a positive image of China through state-controlled media and cultural initiatives

Confucius Institutes. The Confucius Institutes, established worldwide, serve as a means to promote Chinese language and culture while subtly shaping perceptions of China and its history. These institutes often avoid sensitive topics and present a sanitized version of Chinese society.

5. China's "Assassin's Mace" Aims to Neutralize US Power

As I assembled clues contradicting the conventional narrative about China that I had always believed, I starting connecting the pieces of an alternative narrative of roughly the past four decades.

Asymmetric Warfare. China is investing heavily in "Assassin's Mace" technologies, asymmetric weapons designed to neutralize the conventional military superiority of the United States. These weapons target vulnerabilities in American systems, such as reliance on satellites and long supply lines.

Key Technologies:

• Anti-satellite weapons
• Cyber warfare capabilities
• Anti-ship ballistic missiles
• Electromagnetic pulse (EMP) weapons

Seven Fears. China's military strategy is driven by a set of "Seven Fears" regarding potential threats from the United States, including blockade, territorial dismemberment, and support for internal rebels. These fears shape China's military planning and its pursuit of asymmetric capabilities.

6. Capitalist Charade: China's State-Controlled Economy Deceives the West

In our hubris, Americans love to believe that the aspiration of every other country is to be just like the United States. In recent years, this has governed our approach to Iraq and Afghanistan. We cling to the same mentality with China.

Mercantilist Strategy. Despite appearances, China's economy is not a free market system, but rather a state-controlled mercantilist model. The government actively supports state-owned enterprises (SOEs), manipulates its currency, and engages in intellectual property theft to gain an unfair advantage in global trade.

State-Owned Enterprises. SOEs, or "national champions," play a crucial role in China's economic strategy, receiving preferential treatment and subsidies from the government. These enterprises are used to acquire foreign technology, secure natural resources, and expand China's global influence.

World Bank's Role. The World Bank, paradoxically, played a key role in shaping China's economic strategy, advising against privatization and promoting a model that preserved state control while integrating market mechanisms. This allowed China to achieve rapid economic growth without fully embracing free market principles.

7. A China-Led World Order: Autocracy, Pollution, and Weaponry

For the past three decades, as a China expert who has worked in the Congress and in the executive branch for every administration since Richard Nixon’s, I have arguably had more access to China’s military and intelligence establishment than any other Westerner.

Authoritarian Values. A China-led world order would likely be characterized by authoritarian values, with less emphasis on individual rights, free speech, and democratic governance. China's support for autocratic regimes around the world would undermine efforts to promote democracy and human rights.

Environmental Degradation. China's rapid economic growth has come at a significant environmental cost, with widespread pollution and resource depletion. A China-led world order could see this model exported to other developing nations, leading to further environmental degradation.

Weapons Proliferation. China's history of selling weapons and missile technology to rogue states raises concerns about the potential for increased proliferation in a China-led world. This could destabilize regions and increase the risk of conflict.

8. America Must Recognize and Counter China's Marathon

We Americans still don’t see China the way it sees us—a condition that has persisted for decades.

Acknowledge the Competition. The first step in countering China's Hundred-Year Marathon is to recognize the nature of the challenge. This involves understanding China's strategic thinking, its long-term goals, and its methods of deception and manipulation.

Develop a Competitiveness Strategy:

• Track all aid to China
• Measure competitiveness
• Develop a competitiveness strategy
• Find common ground at home
• Build a vertical coalition of nations
• Protect political dissidents
• Stand up to anti-American competitive conduct
• Expose corruption and censorship
• Support prodemocracy reformers

Support Reformers. The United States should actively support pro-democracy reformers within China, providing them with resources and platforms to challenge the government's narrative. This involves promoting free speech, human rights, and the rule of law.

Last updated: April 12, 2025