The Future of Geography

1. Space is the New Geography: Understanding its unique features is crucial.

To understand that story, it is helpful to see space as a place with geography: it has corridors suited to travel, regions with key natural assets, land on which to build and dangerous hazards to avoid.

Space has a geography. Just like Earth, space has distinct regions, strategic points, and resources. Understanding these features is essential for navigating the complexities of astropolitics.

• Launch sites near the equator offer a speed boost.
• Low Earth orbit is a crowded highway for satellites.
• Lagrange points are "parking lots" for spacecraft.
• The Moon has valuable resources like water and helium-3.

Strategic importance. These geographical features influence how nations and corporations operate in space. Control over key locations can provide a strategic advantage, making space a new arena for competition.

Beyond Earth. This new geography extends beyond Earth's orbit to the Moon, Mars, and beyond. Understanding these regions is crucial for future exploration, resource utilization, and potential colonization.

2. Astropolitics is Here: Earthly conflicts are extending into space.

It is now, more than ever, becoming an extension of the geography of Earth: humans are taking our nation states, our corporations, our history, politics and con icts way up above us.

Geopolitics in space. The rivalries, alliances, and conflicts of Earth are now being played out in space. Nations are vying for dominance, resources, and strategic advantage in this new frontier.

• Military and civilian players are competing for control.
• "Spheres of influence" are emerging in space.
• The competition is driven by national security and economic interests.

Military implications. Space is becoming a critical domain for military operations. Satellites are essential for communication, navigation, and surveillance, making them prime targets in any future conflict.

Economic opportunities. The potential for resource extraction, space tourism, and new technologies is driving commercial interest in space. This economic competition is further fueling geopolitical tensions.

3. Outdated Space Laws: Current treaties are inadequate for modern challenges.

But that idea, enshrined in several noble, albeit outdated and unenforceable documents, is fraying badly.

Treaties are insufficient. The Outer Space Treaty of 1967 and other agreements are too vague and outdated to address the current realities of space activity. They lack enforcement mechanisms and fail to account for new technologies and actors.

• The Outer Space Treaty prohibits national appropriation but doesn't define resource extraction.
• The Moon Agreement is not ratified by major space powers.
• The Artemis Accords are bilateral agreements, not a global framework.

Legal gaps. The lack of clear laws creates uncertainty and potential for conflict. Issues such as space debris, commercial activities, and military operations are not adequately addressed.

Need for new rules. A new set of treaties is needed to regulate space activity, promote cooperation, and prevent conflict. These treaties must be inclusive, enforceable, and adaptable to future technological advancements.

4. China's Space Ambition: A long-term, military-backed strategy.

‘The space dream is part of the dream to make China stronger.’

Techno-nationalism. China views its space program as a key component of its national rejuvenation and global leadership ambitions. It is a long-term, state-directed strategy with strong military backing.

• The People's Liberation Army (PLA) controls the space program.
• China is investing heavily in space technology and infrastructure.
• The program is designed to enhance military capabilities and economic growth.

Propaganda and soft power. China uses its space achievements to boost national pride and project an image of technological prowess. It also seeks to promote its vision of space as a global common.

Challenging the US. China's space program is a direct challenge to US dominance in space. It is developing its own navigation system, space station, and lunar exploration capabilities.

5. USA's Space Re-Awakening: A return to the Moon and beyond.

‘We choose to go to the Moon in this decade, and do the other things – not because they are easy, but because they are hard.’

Renewed focus. The USA is re-engaging with space exploration, driven by a desire to maintain its leadership and counter China's growing influence. The Artemis program aims to return humans to the Moon and establish a permanent presence.

• The Space Force is a new branch of the military focused on space operations.
• NASA is collaborating with private companies to accelerate space development.
• The USA is investing heavily in new technologies and infrastructure.

Commercial space. The US space industry is characterized by a strong private sector, with companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin leading the way in innovation and cost reduction.

Geopolitical competition. The US space program is also driven by geopolitical considerations, particularly the need to counter China's growing space capabilities and influence.

6. Russia's Space Retrograde: A fading power with military focus.

Secrecy was necessary so that no one would overtake us. But later, when they did overtake us, we had to maintain secrecy so that no one knew that we had been overtaken.

Declining influence. Russia's space program is facing challenges due to economic constraints, technological limitations, and international sanctions. It is shifting its focus towards military applications.

• The Russian space agency, Roscosmos, is facing budget cuts and technological setbacks.
• Russia is increasingly reliant on China for space cooperation.
• Its military space program is focused on anti-satellite weapons and surveillance.

Military focus. Russia is prioritizing the development of military space capabilities, including anti-satellite weapons and electronic warfare systems.

Lost partnerships. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has led to the breakdown of international space partnerships, further isolating its space program.

7. Fellow Travelers: Other nations are forming space blocs and partnerships.

The rst day or so we all pointed to our countries. The third or fourth day we were pointing to our continents. By the fth day we were aware of only one Earth.

Emerging space powers. Many countries are developing their own space programs, driven by economic, scientific, and security interests. These nations are forming partnerships and blocs to enhance their capabilities.

• The European Space Agency (ESA) is a major player in space exploration.
• The Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organization (APSCO) is led by China.
• India, Japan, and South Korea are also developing their space capabilities.

Regional alliances. Countries are forming regional alliances to share resources, expertise, and infrastructure. These alliances are shaping the future of space governance and competition.

Global cooperation. Despite the competition, there is also a growing recognition of the need for international cooperation on issues such as space debris, asteroid defense, and scientific research.

8. Space Wars are Coming: The potential for conflict is real and growing.

‘Who controls low Earth orbit controls near-Earth space. Who controls near-Earth space dominates Terra. Who dominates Terra determines the destiny of humankind.’

Militarization of space. The increasing reliance on space for military operations is leading to the development of anti-satellite weapons and other offensive capabilities.

• Anti-satellite (ASAT) tests are creating dangerous space debris.
• Cyberattacks and electronic warfare are becoming more common.
• The potential for conflict in space is real and growing.

Strategic importance. Control over space is becoming increasingly important for military dominance on Earth. Nations are developing capabilities to attack and defend satellites.

Need for arms control. The lack of clear rules and regulations is increasing the risk of conflict in space. International cooperation is needed to prevent an arms race and ensure the peaceful use of space.

9. The Future is in Space: Humanity's destiny lies beyond Earth.

Earth is the cradle of humanity, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

Long-term vision. Space exploration is not just about scientific discovery; it is also about ensuring the long-term survival and prosperity of humanity.

• The Moon and Mars are potential stepping stones for further exploration.
• Space resources can help address challenges on Earth, such as climate change and energy scarcity.
• Space colonization is a long-term goal for some.

Technological advancements. The pursuit of space exploration is driving innovation in areas such as robotics, materials science, and energy production.

Inspiration and hope. Space exploration inspires us to dream big and push the boundaries of human achievement. It offers a vision of a future where humanity can thrive beyond the confines of Earth.

Last updated: January 23, 2025