The Warren Buffett Stock Portfolio

1. Warren Buffett's Contrarian Investment Strategy: Buy When Others Are Fearful

Warren has always maintained that the time to buy stocks is when nobody else wants them.

Buffett's counter-cyclical approach. Warren Buffett's investment strategy often runs counter to market sentiment. He builds cash reserves during bull markets when stocks are overvalued, allowing him to capitalize on opportunities during market downturns. This contrarian approach enables Buffett to purchase high-quality companies at discounted prices when other investors are panic-selling.

Historical success. Buffett has repeatedly demonstrated the effectiveness of this strategy, such as during the 1973-1974 market crash and the 2008 financial crisis. By having cash available and the courage to invest when others are fearful, Buffett has been able to acquire stakes in great companies at bargain prices, leading to substantial long-term gains for Berkshire Hathaway and its shareholders.

2. Identifying Companies with Durable Competitive Advantages

Warren likes to point out that there is a difference between "tangible book value" and "book value."

Characteristics of durable advantages. Buffett seeks companies with sustainable competitive edges that allow them to maintain profitability over long periods. These advantages often come from strong brand recognition, economies of scale, network effects, or unique assets. Companies with durable competitive advantages typically exhibit:

• Consistent earnings growth
• High returns on equity and capital
• Strong brand loyalty
• Pricing power
• Ability to withstand economic downturns

Financial indicators. Buffett analyzes financial statements to identify these companies, looking for:

• Steady increase in book value per share
• Consistent or growing profit margins
• Low debt levels
• High return on equity (ROE) and return on invested capital (ROIC)

3. The Power of Consumer Monopolies and Brand Loyalty

Think predictable product, predictable profits, and little or no research and development costs.

Brand power and consumer loyalty. Buffett favors companies with strong brand recognition and loyal customer bases. These "consumer monopolies" often have products that consumers use daily and repurchase regularly, creating a steady and predictable revenue stream. Examples include:

• Coca-Cola
• Gillette (now part of Procter & Gamble)
• American Express

Minimal R&D requirements. Companies with established consumer monopolies often require little ongoing research and development to maintain their market position. This allows them to generate high profit margins and return excess cash to shareholders through dividends or share repurchases.

4. Buffett's Equity Bond Concept: Valuing Stocks as Bonds

Warren Buffett's revelation was that a company with a durable competitive advantage has such predictable earnings that the stock really is more like a bond—thus the name "equity bond."

Stocks as bonds with variable coupons. Buffett views stocks of companies with durable competitive advantages as similar to bonds, but with growing "coupons" (earnings). This perspective allows him to value stocks based on their expected future earnings stream, much like a bond's yield.

Valuation method. To apply this concept:

1. Calculate the current earnings yield (earnings per share / stock price)
2. Estimate the company's long-term earnings growth rate
3. Project future earnings and potential stock price
4. Compare the projected return to other investment opportunities

This approach helps Buffett identify undervalued stocks with potential for long-term appreciation.

5. The Importance of Consistent Earnings Growth and Book Value

A company that has a durable competitive advantage will show consistency in earnings over an extended number of years.

Earnings consistency as a key indicator. Buffett looks for companies with a history of steady earnings growth, which demonstrates the strength and durability of their competitive advantage. He typically analyzes at least ten years of financial data to identify consistent performers.

Book value growth. In addition to earnings growth, Buffett also pays attention to increases in book value per share. A rising book value indicates that the company is retaining and reinvesting profits effectively, potentially leading to future earnings growth. Key metrics to consider:

• Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of earnings per share
• CAGR of book value per share
• Consistency of growth (few or no down years)

6. International Tax Advantages for Global Companies

This means that out of J&J's $77 billion in retained earnings, approximately 48% of them are held overseas out of the clutches of the U.S. taxing authorities and are free to grow unimpeded by the effects of U.S. taxes.

Tax deferral benefits. Multinational companies can benefit from deferring U.S. taxes on foreign earnings by keeping profits overseas. This allows them to reinvest these earnings in their international operations without the burden of immediate taxation, potentially leading to faster growth and higher returns for shareholders.

Compounding effect. The ability to defer taxes on foreign earnings can significantly impact a company's long-term value. For example:

• A company earning a 10% return on $37 billion of overseas earnings
• After 10 years, could grow to $100 billion if untaxed
• Compared to only $65 billion if subject to U.S. taxes
  This tax advantage can create substantial additional value for shareholders over time.

7. The Value of Share Repurchases in Increasing Shareholder Value

Decrease the number of shares outstanding and increase the per share earnings.

Enhancing shareholder value. Share repurchases can be an effective way for companies to return value to shareholders, especially when the stock is undervalued. By reducing the number of outstanding shares, repurchases can increase earnings per share and book value per share, even if total earnings remain constant.

Buffett's preference. Warren Buffett often favors companies that consistently repurchase their shares, as it indicates:

• Management's confidence in the company's future prospects
• A shareholder-friendly capital allocation policy
• Potential undervaluation of the stock

Examples of effective share repurchase programs in Buffett's portfolio include:

• IBM
• American Express
• Wells Fargo

8. Buffett's Approach to Banking and Financial Institutions

Warren considers Wells Fargo to be the best-run large bank in America.

Quality over quantity. Buffett focuses on well-managed banks with strong underwriting standards and conservative balance sheets. He looks for institutions that can maintain profitability through various economic cycles and have a history of prudent risk management.

Key factors in bank evaluation:

• Return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE)
• Net interest margin
• Efficiency ratio
• Loan loss provisions and non-performing loan ratios
• Capital adequacy ratios

Buffett has demonstrated his faith in the banking sector through significant investments in Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and U.S. Bancorp, often increasing his stakes during periods of market distress.

9. The Long-Term Value of Infrastructure and Essential Services

A Union Pacific train can move a ton of freight 865 miles on a single gallon of diesel fuel. This is close to five times more efficient than moving the same cargo by truck and is clearly a long-term cost advantage to the railroads.

Essential services as durable advantages. Buffett recognizes the long-term value of companies providing essential infrastructure and services. These businesses often have natural monopolies or significant cost advantages that are difficult for competitors to replicate.

Examples of infrastructure investments:

• Railroads (BNSF, Union Pacific)
• Electric utilities (MidAmerican Energy)
• Natural gas pipelines

These investments typically offer:

• Stable, predictable cash flows
• High barriers to entry
• Opportunities for incremental improvements in efficiency
• Potential for long-term growth as the economy expands

10. Capitalizing on Market Overreactions and Industry Downturns

Nevertheless, fears of a California real estate disaster similar to that experienced in New England caused the price of Wells Fargo stock to fall almost 50% within a few months during 1990.

Opportunities in market panic. Buffett often finds attractive investment opportunities during periods of market panic or industry-specific downturns. He capitalizes on the market's tendency to overreact to short-term problems, allowing him to purchase quality companies at discounted prices.

Patient, long-term approach. Buffett's strategy involves:

1. Identifying strong companies with temporary problems
2. Assessing the long-term impact of the current issues
3. Determining a fair value for the business
4. Investing when the market price offers a significant margin of safety

Examples of successful investments made during periods of distress include:

• American Express during the salad oil scandal (1963)
• Wells Fargo during the real estate crisis (1990)
• Bank of America during the financial crisis (2008)

By focusing on the long-term earnings power of these businesses, Buffett has been able to generate substantial returns as the market eventually recognizes their true value.

Last updated: July 20, 2024