Thinking

1. The Brain: A Social Arena, Not a Bureaucracy

The question is, what happens to your ideas about computational architecture when you think of individual neurons not as dutiful slaves or as simple machines but as agents that have to be kept in line and properly rewarded and that can form coalitions and cabals and organizations and alliances?

Neurons as Agents. The brain isn't a well-organized hierarchy, but a social arena of warring forces. Individual neurons are not simple switches, but agents with their own agendas, forming coalitions and competing for influence. This perspective challenges the traditional view of the brain as a computer with dutiful, slave-like components.

Anarchy and Democracy. The brain is more like an anarchy with elements of democracy, where stability is an achievement, not the base state. Alliances form and shift, leading to both creativity and susceptibility to mental illnesses. This view contrasts with the idea of a well-organized, hierarchical control system.

Evolutionary Roots. Even at the genetic level, there are intrapersonal conflicts between maternal and paternal genes. This suggests that the brain is not a monolithic entity, but a collection of competing forces. This perspective is supported by evolutionary biology, which highlights the inherent conflicts within our own bodies.

2. Forecasting: Humility and Benchmarking Beat Overconfidence

We found two things. One, it’s very hard for political analysts to do appreciably better than chance when you move beyond about one year. Second, political analysts think they know a lot more about the future than they actually do.

Pundit Accountability. Political pundits are often more interested in bolstering their audience's prejudices than in making accurate predictions. There is a need for benchmarking the accuracy of pundits to elevate the quality of public debate. This is a call for greater accountability in public discourse.

Overconfidence and Reluctance to Change. Political analysts are often overconfident in their predictions and reluctant to change their minds when proven wrong. This combination of overconfidence and inflexibility makes for a flawed punditocracy. This highlights the importance of humility in forecasting.

Level-Playing-Field Tournaments. Forecasting tournaments can improve the quality of public debate by benchmarking the accuracy of pundits. These tournaments are radically meritocratic, putting everyone on the same playing field and destabilizing status relationships. This is a call for transparency and accountability in public discourse.

3. Smart Heuristics: Less Can Be More in Decision-Making

In order to make good decisions in an uncertain world, one sometimes has to ignore information. The art is knowing what one doesn’t have to know.

Bounded Rationality. Humans make decisions based on bounded rationality, not the unbounded rationality of an omniscient being. This means that we often rely on simple heuristics, or rules of thumb, to make decisions quickly and efficiently. This is a rejection of the idea that we always need to consider all information.

Ecological Rationality. The effectiveness of a heuristic depends on the environment in which it is used. The bounds in the mind are not unrelated to the bounds in the environment. This is a call for understanding the relationship between the mind and its environment.

Examples of Smart Heuristics:

• The gaze heuristic for catching a ball
• The recognition heuristic for choosing between two cities or stocks
• Satisficing, which involves choosing the first option that meets a certain aspiration level

These heuristics demonstrate that sometimes, ignoring information can lead to better decisions.

4. Affective Forecasting: We Mispredict Our Future Feelings

Specifically, people tend to overestimate the impact of future events. That is, they predict that future events will have a more intense and more enduring hedonic impact than they actually do. We call this the impact bias.

The Impact Bias. People tend to overestimate the intensity and duration of their emotional reactions to future events. This is known as the impact bias, and it leads to suboptimal decisions. This is a call for more realistic expectations about the future.

Mechanisms of the Impact Bias:

• Rationalization: People change their views of events to feel better about them.
• Psychological Immune System: People have a defensive system that helps them cope with adversity.
• Focalism: People focus on the event itself and forget about other events that will also populate the future.

The Value of Errors. Errors in judgment can have adaptive value. It may be important for organisms to believe they would be devastated by the loss of their offspring, even if this isn't actually true. This is a call for understanding the adaptive value of errors.

5. Behavioral Neurology: Brain Lesions Reveal Human Nature

What you get often is a highly selective loss of one specific function, other functions being preserved relatively intact. This gives you some confidence in saying that that region of the brain is specialized in dealing with that function.

Selective Loss of Function. Studying patients with brain lesions can reveal the specific functions of different brain regions. This approach, called behavioral neurology, allows us to understand how the brain is organized and how it mediates different cognitive processes. This is a call for studying the brain through its malfunctions.

Apotemnophilia. This rare syndrome, where a person desires to have a healthy limb amputated, may be caused by a malfunction in the brain's body image center. This highlights the complex relationship between the brain and our sense of self. This is a call for studying the unusual to understand the usual.

Synesthesia. This condition, where senses are merged, may be caused by a genetic glitch that leads to cross-wiring between different brain regions. This suggests that our senses are not as separate as we might think. This is a call for understanding the genetic basis of perception.

6. Social Psychology: The Power of Narratives and Context

One of the basic assumptions of the field is that it’s not the objective environment that influences people, but their constructs of the world.

Story Editing. People's narratives about themselves and the world can be changed through simple prompts and suggestions. This approach, called story editing, can have powerful long-term effects on behavior. This is a call for understanding the power of narratives.

The Limits of Introspection. People are often unaware of the true causes of their own actions and make up stories to explain them. This highlights the importance of understanding the unconscious mind. This is a call for humility about our self-knowledge.

The Importance of Testing. Many interventions to help people are not based on theory and haven't been tested. Social psychologists know how to do experiments and test whether an intervention is working. This is a call for evidence-based interventions.

7. Adolescent Brain: A Period of Dramatic Change

The brain’s a computer, but it’s so different from any computer that you’re used to.

Protracted Brain Development. The human cortex undergoes much more protracted development than previously thought, with gray matter increasing during childhood and then declining during adolescence. This highlights the importance of studying the brain during adolescence. This is a call for understanding the brain's plasticity.

Shifting Brain Activity. During adolescence, brain activity shifts from the prefrontal cortex to the temporal regions when thinking about other people. This suggests that adolescents may be using different cognitive strategies than adults. This is a call for understanding the changing brain.

Social Cognition Development. The ability to take into account someone else's perspective continues to develop well into late adolescence. This highlights the importance of social experience in shaping the mind. This is a call for understanding the social brain.

8. Essentialism: The Irreplaceable Nature of Objects

We make decisions based on a bounded rationality, not the unbounded rationality of the decision maker modeled after an omniscient god.

Beyond Physical Properties. People often imbue objects with an invisible essence that makes them irreplaceable. This is known as essentialism, and it influences how we value objects. This is a call for understanding the psychological value of objects.

The Recognition Heuristic. People often make decisions based on name recognition, even when they have less knowledge about the options. This highlights the power of simple heuristics in decision-making. This is a call for understanding the power of recognition.

Emotions and Commitment. Emotions, such as love, help us create the commitment necessary to stay with our spouses and families. This highlights the role of emotions in decision-making. This is a call for understanding the role of emotions in judgment.

9. Testosterone: A Key to Sex Differences and Beyond

I’m interested in all aspects of the human mind, including aspects of the mind that have been regarded as ineffable or mysterious.

Testosterone and Brain Development. The hormone testosterone plays a role in masculinizing the brain and influencing behavior. This is a call for understanding the role of hormones in brain development.

Sex Differences. There are differences in brain structure and function between males and females, and these differences may be related to testosterone levels. This is a call for understanding the biological basis of sex differences.

Testosterone and Autism. Prenatal testosterone levels may be a risk factor for autism. This highlights the complex relationship between hormones and neurodevelopmental conditions. This is a call for understanding the biological basis of autism.

10. Insight: Beyond Procedures, the Power of "Aha!"

The question is, how do you go about studying this organ? There are various ways of doing it.

Intuition and Expertise. Experts rely on intuition, which is based on their experience and tacit knowledge. This is a call for understanding the power of experience.

Recognition-Primed Decisions. Experts make decisions by recognizing patterns and using mental simulations to evaluate their options. This highlights the importance of pattern recognition in decision-making. This is a call for understanding the power of mental simulation.

The Role of Inconsistency. Insights often arise when people become aware of inconsistencies in their thinking. This highlights the importance of self-reflection and critical thinking. This is a call for understanding the role of inconsistency in insight.

11. Morality: More Than Reason, More Than Emotion

Economic decisions are inherently affective forecasts.

Moral Intuitions. Moral judgments are often based on intuitions, which are rapid, automatic, and effortless. This is a call for understanding the role of intuition in morality.

Moral Foundations. Morality is not just about harm and fairness, but also about group loyalty, authority, and sanctity. This highlights the complexity of moral values. This is a call for understanding the multiple dimensions of morality.

The Power of Social Relationships. Social relationships are a powerful predictor of happiness, much more so than money. This highlights the importance of social connections in well-being. This is a call for understanding the social basis of happiness.

12. The Limits of Statistics: Navigating the Fourth Quadrant

The question is, how do you go about studying this organ? There are various ways of doing it.

The Fourth Quadrant. Statistics are unreliable in the fourth quadrant, where complex decisions are made in the face of extreme uncertainty. This is a call for understanding the limits of statistics.

Black Swans. History is often shaped by unpredictable events that no one could have foreseen. This highlights the importance of being prepared for the unexpected. This is a call for understanding the role of rare events.

Phronetic Rules. In the fourth quadrant, it is important to avoid optimization, embrace redundancy, and beware of the "atypicality" of remote events. This is a call for developing practical wisdom in the face of uncertainty.

Last updated: January 18, 2025