Winter Is Coming

1. The West's Apathy Enabled Putin's Rise

It is critical to figure out what went awry, because even though Putin is now a clear and present danger, Europe and America are still getting it wrong.

Apathy and Misplaced Goodwill. The free world's combination of apathy, ignorance, and misplaced goodwill significantly contributed to Putin's rise. The West failed to recognize the dangers of a former KGB officer becoming president and underestimated his ambitions to rebuild a police state. This lack of vigilance allowed Putin to consolidate power and undermine democratic institutions in Russia.

Ignoring Warning Signs. The West consistently overlooked Putin's crackdowns on media, civil society, and political opposition. Instead of holding Russia accountable for its human rights abuses, Western leaders prioritized economic and political engagement, providing Putin with legitimacy and resources to further his authoritarian agenda. This pattern of appeasement emboldened Putin and paved the way for his aggressive foreign policy.

Failure to Learn from History. The West forgot the lessons of the Cold War, abandoning the principles of standing against evil and promoting human rights. Instead, engagement and resets became the norm, prioritizing short-term gains over long-term security. This shortsighted approach allowed Putin to exploit the openness of the free world to spread corruption, fuel repression, and ultimately threaten global stability.

2. Symbols of Freedom Don't Guarantee Its Reality

It is very dangerous to believe that the fall of a symbol is the same as the end of what that symbol represented, but the temptation to do so is nearly irresistible.

The Illusion of Progress. The fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union created a false sense of security and the belief that democracy had triumphed. However, the underlying forces of oppression and authoritarianism remained, waiting for an opportunity to resurface. The West's focus on symbolic victories blinded them to the reality that true freedom requires constant vigilance and active defense.

The Persistence of Evil. Evil does not disappear with the fall of a wall or the collapse of a regime. It adapts and finds new ways to take root. The West's complacency allowed authoritarian leaders like Putin to exploit the cracks in the new world order and rebuild repressive systems under the guise of stability and national pride.

The Need for Vigilance. The end of the Cold War did not mean the end of history. The desire for power and control remains a constant threat, requiring a firm commitment to defending freedom and democracy. The West must resist the temptation to believe in easy solutions and instead remain vigilant against the forces of oppression.

3. Engagement Without Principles Empowers Autocrats

In practice, the authoritarian states have abused this access and economic interdependency to spread their corruption and fuel repression at home.

The Perils of Naive Engagement. The naive belief that economic and social ties would gradually liberalize authoritarian states has proven false. Instead, authoritarian regimes have exploited these ties to strengthen their power, spread corruption, and suppress dissent. The West's pursuit of engagement without demanding meaningful reforms has inadvertently empowered dictators.

Economic Leverage Misused. Europe's dependence on Russian energy has prevented it from taking decisive action against Putin's aggression. Instead of using its economic influence to deter Putin, Europe has feigned helplessness, allowing him to use energy as a political weapon. This demonstrates the failure of engagement without clear principles and a willingness to make sacrifices.

Corruption and Influence. Authoritarian regimes exploit the openness of the free world by hiring lobbyists, spreading propaganda, and contributing to political parties and NGOs. This allows them to influence policy and escape censure for their human rights abuses. The West must be more vigilant in exposing and combating these activities.

4. Complacency and Appeasement Invite Aggression

Dictators only stop when they are stopped, and appeasing Putin with Ukraine will only stoke his appetite for more conquests.

The Danger of Appeasement. Appeasing dictators only emboldens them and encourages further aggression. Putin's annexation of Crimea and invasion of Ukraine demonstrate the failure of appeasement and the need for a firm and united response. The West's reluctance to confront Putin has only fueled his ambitions and increased the risk of further conflict.

The Importance of Deterrence. Dictators only stop when they are stopped. The West must demonstrate its resolve to defend its values and interests by imposing meaningful consequences for aggression. This includes economic sanctions, military support for threatened nations, and a clear commitment to defending international law.

Learning from History. The failure to defend Czechoslovakia in 1938 led to the outbreak of World War II. The world must act now to prevent a similar catastrophe by standing up to Putin's aggression and deterring further conquests. Ignoring the warning signs will only lead to greater sacrifices in the future.

5. Moral Clarity Is Essential in Modern Conflicts

The hazy battle lines of these modern conflicts can only be addressed by bright moral lines.

The Need for Moral Frameworks. Modern conflicts require clear moral frameworks to guide policy and action. The West must identify its enemies by their targets and stand firm on principles of good and evil, right and wrong. This requires a rejection of moral equivalence and a willingness to defend universal values of human rights and individual liberty.

Principles into Policies. The free world must translate its principles into concrete policies. This includes identifying and understanding what it is fighting for and against, and being willing to defend its values as if its lives depended on them. The world needs a new alliance based on a global Magna Carta, a declaration of fundamental rights that all members must recognize.

Rejecting Distractions and Excuses. The West must resist the distractions, excuses, and straw man arguments presented by dictators and appeasers. Avoiding a new Cold War is not a valid reason to ignore the war that is already happening in Ukraine. Denial is not an acceptable policy, and fretting about potential consequences is a pathetic attempt to defer tough decisions.

6. The 1990s: A Decade of Missed Opportunities

The 1990s were a series of huge missed opportunities for the global forces of democracy.

Economic and Moral Might Squandered. The West possessed unprecedented economic, military, and moral power after the collapse of the Soviet Union. However, instead of pressing this advantage to promote democracy and human rights, it squandered the opportunity through complacency and a focus on short-term gains. This failure allowed authoritarianism to resurface in Russia and other former Soviet states.

Lack of Structural Reforms. The West placed too much faith in individuals in Russia instead of supporting structural and institutional reforms that could have guaranteed the survival of democracy. This reliance on personal relationships proved to be a fatal flaw, as it allowed Putin to exploit the system and consolidate power.

Failure to Hold the USSR Accountable. There were no trials or truth and reconciliation commissions, internationally or domestically, about the former USSR. This allowed the roots of the powerful Russian security apparatus to remain intact, paving the way for Putin's rise to power. The West's failure to demand accountability for past crimes contributed to the resurgence of authoritarianism.

7. Putin Exploits Weakness and Rewards Loyalty

Like any born autocrat, Putin respects only power.

Respect for Power. Putin, like other autocrats, respects only power and takes advantage of any perceived weakness. He tests the boundaries of acceptable behavior and expands his influence whenever he encounters no resistance. The West's muted expressions of concern are interpreted as a green light for further aggression.

Loyalty Above All. Putin prioritizes loyalty above all else, rewarding those who support him and punishing those who challenge his authority. This creates a system of cronyism and corruption, where personal gain is prioritized over the rule of law and the interests of the Russian people.

The Mafia State. Putin has created a metaphorical mafia state, where power is concentrated in the hands of a small group of loyalists who use their positions to enrich themselves. This system is based on fear, intimidation, and a code of silence, making it difficult to challenge from within. The goal is not to improve the lives of average Russians, but to maintain the power and wealth of the ruling elite.

8. The Invasion of Ukraine: A Preventable Tragedy

In the end, it took the invasion of Ukraine to finally get the G7 (I always refused to call it the G8) to expel Putin’s Russia from the elite club of industrial democracies.

A Culmination of Failures. The invasion of Ukraine was not a sudden event, but the culmination of years of Western failures to confront Putin's aggression and support democratic values. The West's complacency, appeasement, and misplaced trust in Putin created the conditions for this tragedy to occur.

A Clear Warning Ignored. Putin's turn to ethnically based imperialism in Ukraine cannot be ignored. Those who say the conflict is far away and unlikely to lead to global instability miss the clear warning Putin has given us. There is no reason to believe his vision of a "Greater Russia" will end with Eastern Ukraine.

The Need for Decisive Action. The world must act now to halt Putin's aggression and prevent further conquests. This requires a strong and united front, including economic sanctions, substitution for Russian energy, diplomatic isolation, and economic and military support for his targets. The failure to act decisively will only embolden Putin and increase the risk of a wider conflict.

9. Economic Ties Shouldn't Trump Human Rights

Effective policies are based on principles.

Moral Values as a Foundation. Effective policies must be based on moral values, not just economic interests. The West's willingness to prioritize business with dictatorships over human rights has undermined its credibility and emboldened authoritarian regimes. A new alliance based on a global Magna Carta, a declaration of fundamental rights that all members must recognize, is needed.

The Failure of Engagement with Dictators. The policies of engagement with dictators have failed on every level. It is past time to recognize this failure and to adopt a new approach based on principles of good and evil, right and wrong, and the universal values of human rights and human life.

The Power of Moral Leadership. The world needs a new alliance based on a global Magna Carta, a declaration of fundamental rights that all members must recognize. Nations that value individual liberty now control the greater part of the world’s resources as well as its military power. If they band together and refuse to coddle the rogue regimes and sponsors of terror, their integrity and their influence will be irresistible.

10. The World Needs a New Alliance Based on Moral Principles

The world needs a new alliance based on a global Magna Carta, a declaration of fundamental rights that all members must recognize.

A Global Magna Carta. The world needs a new alliance based on a global Magna Carta, a declaration of fundamental rights that all members must recognize. This alliance should be based on moral principles, the only weapon the enemies of democracy cannot match.

An Alliance of Democracies. Nations that value individual liberty now control the greater part of the world's resources as well as its military power. If they band together and refuse to coddle the rogue regimes and sponsors of terror, their integrity and their influence will be irresistible.

Hope for the Oppressed. The goal should not be to build new walls to isolate the millions of people living under authoritarian rule, but to provide them with hope and the prospect of a brighter future. The so-called leaders of the free world talk about promoting democracy while treating the leaders of the world's most repressive regimes as equals. The policies of engagement with dictators have failed on every level, and it is past time to recognize this failure.

Last updated: March 27, 2025