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The Undercover Economist Strikes Back

The Undercover Economist Strikes Back

How to Run-or Ruin-an Economy
作者 Tim Harford 2013 272 页数
3.93
3k+ 评分
8 分钟

重点摘要

1. 经济增长有价值,但不是成功的唯一衡量标准

“GDP仅仅衡量人们愿意支付的东西,这不一定与能源或任何其他物理资源的使用相关。”

GDP的局限性: 虽然经济增长(以国内生产总值GDP衡量)是衡量一个国家经济健康的重要指标,但它未能捕捉到许多社会福祉的重要方面。GDP不包括:

  • 环境退化
  • 收入不平等
  • 生活质量因素(如休闲时间、健康、教育)
  • 无偿工作(如家务劳动、志愿服务)

替代指标: 政策制定者应考虑与GDP互补的指标:

  • 人类发展指数(HDI)
  • 真正进步指标(GPI)
  • 幸福或生活满意度调查
  • 可持续发展目标(SDGs)

通过超越GDP的视角,国家可以追求更全面和可持续的发展战略,平衡经济增长与社会和环境的考虑。

2. 理解供需冲击对管理经济衰退至关重要

“保姆合作社的经济衰退与合作社本身的生产潜力无关:这种生产潜力始终可以被利用。未被利用的原因与外部力量无关。这是经济机器的失败,有可能通过一些巧妙的经济调整来修复。”

衰退类型: 经济衰退可以大致分为两类:

  1. 需求侧衰退(如保姆合作社)
  2. 供给侧衰退(如战俘营经济)

主要区别:

  • 需求侧:由缺乏支出或信心引起;可以通过刺激措施解决
  • 供给侧:由生产或资源可用性中断引起;需要结构性改革

政策影响: 正确识别衰退的性质对于实施有效解决方案至关重要:

  • 需求侧解决方案:货币宽松、财政刺激、提升消费者信心
  • 供给侧解决方案:监管改革、基础设施投资、劳动力培训

政策制定者必须灵活并愿意根据每次经济危机的具体情况调整策略。

3. 货币政策是强有力的工具,但需要谨慎平衡

“换句话说,印足够多的钱,通货紧缩就会结束。”

中央银行的角色: 货币政策由中央银行控制,是管理经济周期的主要工具。关键方面包括:

  • 设定利率
  • 控制货币供应
  • 影响通胀预期

平衡行为: 中央银行必须在几个相互竞争的目标之间导航:

  • 刺激增长与控制通胀
  • 支持就业与维持价格稳定
  • 应对短期危机与保持长期信誉

挑战和局限性:

  • 零下限:当利率接近零时,传统货币政策变得不那么有效
  • 时间滞后:政策变化的效果可能需要数月或数年才能完全显现
  • 意外后果:激进的货币政策可能导致资产泡沫或货币贬值

有效的货币政策需要对经济状况有深刻理解,清晰的沟通,以及适应变化情况的意愿。

4. 财政刺激可以促进经济,但时机和实施很重要

“在确定二氧化碳税的适当水平或决定是否允许开发商排干湿地并在其上建造机场时,尝试衡量生态系统服务的价值是有道理的。”

刺激效果: 通过政府支出或减税的财政刺激可以帮助经济从衰退中恢复。然而,其成功取决于几个因素:

  • 时机:在衰退早期实施刺激通常更有效
  • 目标:将资金直接用于高乘数效应的领域(如基础设施、教育)
  • 临时性:明确传达刺激措施不是永久性的

潜在陷阱:

  • 挤出私人投资
  • 增加长期债务负担
  • 一旦实施,难以缩减支出

环境考虑: 将环境成本和收益纳入财政政策决策可以带来更可持续的结果。工具如:

  • 碳定价
  • 绿色基础设施投资
  • 清洁技术补贴

可以帮助将经济增长与环境保护对齐。

5. 失业是复杂的,涉及结构性和周期性因素

“基本上有两种类型的失业:随着经济衰退而来的周期性失业,以及更为永久的结构性失业。”

失业类型:

  1. 周期性:与经济衰退相关
  2. 结构性:由于工人技能与工作要求不匹配
  3. 摩擦性:在工作过渡期间的短期失业

政策方法:

  • 周期性:通过货币和财政刺激解决
  • 结构性:需要对教育、培训和劳动力市场改革的长期投资
  • 摩擦性:可以通过改进的求职技术和劳动力市场信息减少

挑战:

  • 区分失业类型
  • 平衡短期救济与长期解决方案
  • 应对技术破坏和不断变化的技能要求

有效的失业政策必须是多方面的,既要解决经济衰退期间的即时需求,又要解决劳动力市场的长期结构性问题。

6. 管理质量显著影响经济生产力

“正如你所期望的那样,管理质量似乎非常重要。它与劳动生产率密切相关,而从长远来看,劳动生产率是经济中最重要的数字之一。”

管理的角色: 企业管理质量对整体经济生产力有重大影响。关键因素包括:

  • 资源的有效分配
  • 采用最佳实践
  • 创新和适应能力

改善管理:

  • 促进竞争以淘汰管理不善的企业
  • 投资于管理教育和培训
  • 促进企业和行业之间的知识转移

政策影响:

  • 减少新企业进入的障碍
  • 鼓励外国直接投资以引入新的管理实践
  • 支持有效管理技术的研究

通过关注提高整个经济的管理质量,政策制定者可以在不需要大规模投资或技术突破的情况下提高生产力和竞争力。

7. 国内和国际的不平等需要细致的解决方案

“全球不平等在二十世纪末之前一直在上升。现在不平等似乎在下降——可能是自工业革命以来的第一次——但下降幅度相当温和。”

全球趋势: 虽然近年来国家之间的不平等总体上有所减少,但许多国家内部的不平等却在增加。关键因素:

  • 全球化和技术变革
  • 教育和技能水平的差异
  • 政策选择(如税收、社会项目)

解决不平等:

  • 累进税制和财富再分配
  • 投资于教育和技能培训
  • 改善医疗和社会服务的获取
  • 促进包容性经济增长

挑战:

  • 平衡平等与经济激励
  • 应对富人和企业的政治影响力
  • 协调国际努力以减少全球不平等

有效的解决不平等的政策必须考虑国内和国际因素,平衡经济增长的需要与资源和机会的公平分配。

8. 宏观经济学的未来在于跨学科方法

“现代宏观经济学没有伸展去抓住任何可能揭示经济的工具,而是缩小了其焦点。”

扩展视野: 宏观经济学领域可以通过结合各学科的见解受益:

  • 心理学:理解决策和行为经济学
  • 复杂性理论:建模大规模互动和涌现现象
  • 数据科学:利用大数据和机器学习进行经济分析

整合的关键领域:

  • 行为宏观经济学:结合现实的人类行为模型
  • 基于代理的建模:模拟复杂的经济系统
  • 生态经济学:将环境约束纳入经济模型

挑战:

  • 克服学术壁垒和变革阻力
  • 开发新方法和工具
  • 平衡理论严谨性与实际适用性

宏观经济学的未来在于接受更全面的跨学科方法,这样可以更好地捕捉现代经济的复杂性,并提供更有效的政策建议。

最后更新日期:

FAQ

What's The Undercover Economist Strikes Back about?

  • Explores economic principles: The book delves into macroeconomic concepts, contrasting them with microeconomic perspectives, to explain how economies function and the implications of various economic policies.
  • Focus on real-world examples: Tim Harford uses engaging stories, such as the babysitting co-op and a POW camp, to illustrate complex economic ideas, making them accessible and relatable.
  • Addresses current economic issues: Harford discusses contemporary challenges like recessions and inflation, offering insights into effective policy responses.

Why should I read The Undercover Economist Strikes Back?

  • Accessible economics: Harford presents economic concepts in a relatable and engaging manner, making them understandable for readers without a background in economics.
  • Practical insights: The book provides valuable lessons on how economic principles apply to everyday life and current events, enhancing readers' understanding of economic forces.
  • Encourages critical thinking: By challenging conventional wisdom, Harford encourages readers to think critically about economic policies and their implications.

What are the key takeaways of The Undercover Economist Strikes Back?

  • Understanding macro vs. micro: The book emphasizes the difference between macroeconomics and microeconomics, crucial for grasping economic dynamics.
  • Importance of demand: Harford illustrates how demand drives economic activity, highlighting the need for effective demand management in policy.
  • Role of inflation: The book discusses maintaining moderate inflation to facilitate economic adjustments and stability.

What are the best quotes from The Undercover Economist Strikes Back and what do they mean?

  • Complexities of macroeconomics: “Microeconomics concerns things that economists are specifically wrong about, while macroeconomics concerns things economists are wrong about generally.” This highlights the uncertainties in macroeconomic analysis.
  • Government spending potential: “If the Treasury were to fill old bottles with banknotes... there need be no more unemployment.” This illustrates the potential of government spending to stimulate the economy.
  • Limitations of GDP: “The welfare of a nation can scarcely be inferred from a measurement of national income as defined by the GDP.” This underscores the need for broader measures of economic health.

What is the difference between Keynesian and classical economics in The Undercover Economist Strikes Back?

  • Keynesian focus on demand: Emphasizes aggregate demand's role in driving economic activity, advocating for government intervention during recessions.
  • Classical view of supply: Argues that supply creates its own demand, suggesting economies are self-correcting and recessions are due to external shocks.
  • Short-run vs. long-run: Keynesian principles apply in the short run, while classical economics is more relevant in the long run.

How does The Undercover Economist Strikes Back explain the role of inflation?

  • Moderate inflation is beneficial: Harford argues that a small amount of inflation can help facilitate economic adjustments, such as allowing real wages to decrease without cutting nominal wages.
  • Risks of deflation: Highlights the dangers of deflation, which can lead to increased debt burdens and reduced consumer spending.
  • Inflation as a policy tool: Discusses how central banks use inflation targets to guide monetary policy, promoting economic stability and growth.

What is the concept of efficiency wages in The Undercover Economist Strikes Back?

  • Definition of efficiency wages: Wages set above market equilibrium to increase worker productivity and reduce turnover.
  • Ford's five-dollar day: Example of efficiency wages, where higher pay reduced turnover and increased productivity at Ford.
  • Impact on unemployment: While improving productivity, efficiency wages can lead to higher unemployment as employers hire fewer workers at higher wages.

How does The Undercover Economist Strikes Back address the issue of unemployment?

  • Types of unemployment: Distinguishes between cyclical and structural unemployment, crucial for effective policy-making.
  • Beveridge curve: Illustrates the relationship between job vacancies and unemployment rates, indicating structural issues in the labor market.
  • Role of incentives: Emphasizes that unemployment is influenced by incentives, both for workers and employers.

What is the significance of the Beveridge curve in The Undercover Economist Strikes Back?

  • Understanding labor markets: Illustrates the relationship between job vacancies and unemployment rates, providing insights into labor market efficiency.
  • Shifts in the curve: Indicates structural unemployment, where job seekers exceed available positions.
  • Policy implications: Helps policymakers design interventions targeting specific labor market issues.

How does The Undercover Economist Strikes Back explain the relationship between inflation and unemployment?

  • Phillips curve: Discusses the historical inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment, noting its breakdown during stagflation.
  • Expectations and behavior: Emphasizes that inflation expectations influence behavior, complicating the relationship between inflation and unemployment.
  • Policy challenges: Highlights the difficulties in managing inflation and unemployment simultaneously.

What role does behavioral economics play in The Undercover Economist Strikes Back?

  • Incorporating psychology: Integrates psychological insights into economic models, challenging traditional assumptions about rational decision-making.
  • Impact on policy: Informs better policy design, particularly in consumer protection and financial regulation.
  • Examples of behavioral insights: Explains phenomena like sticky prices and efficiency wages, enhancing understanding of human behavior in economic contexts.

What are the implications of rising inequality discussed in The Undercover Economist Strikes Back?

  • Global versus local inequality: Highlights the distinction between inequality between countries and within countries, noting rising inequality within rich countries.
  • Factors contributing to inequality: Discusses technological change and educational disparities as drivers of rising inequality.
  • Policy responses: Suggests targeted interventions, such as improving education access and progressive taxation, to address inequality.

评论

3.93 满分 5
平均评分来自 3k+ 来自Goodreads和亚马逊的评分.

《卧底经济学家反击》因其通俗易懂的宏观经济学讲解而备受赞誉,采用对话风格和现实生活中的例子。读者们欣赏哈福德的平衡视角和解释复杂概念的能力。书中涵盖了通货膨胀、失业和经济增长等主题。一些评论者认为问答形式有些尴尬,而另一些人则喜欢这种形式。大多数人认为这是宏观经济学初学者的良好入门书籍,尽管一些更有知识的读者觉得内容过于基础。总体而言,这本书被认为是一本引人入胜且信息丰富的读物。

Your rating:

关于作者

蒂姆·哈福德是一位著名的经济学家和作家,以其能够以通俗易懂的方式解释复杂的经济概念而闻名。他是《金融时报》编辑委员会的成员,并撰写广受欢迎的专栏《卧底经济学家》,该专栏在全球范围内进行连载。哈福德独特之处在于他运营一个名为《亲爱的经济学家》的经济学问题专栏,在那里他运用经济理论来解决读者的个人问题。他的写作风格以机智、清晰和运用日常经验来阐明经济原理而著称。哈福德的作品使他成为普及经济学的领军人物。

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