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Risk Intelligence
by Dylan Evans • 2012
Your probability estimates are worse than you think. It's trainable, and the payoff is real.
3.71
256
Risk Intelligence Summary
Risk Intelligence 98%
Your probability estimates are worse than you think. It's trainable, and the payoff is real.
by Dylan Evans 2012
3.71
256 ratings
How Not to Be Wrong
by Jordan Ellenberg • 2014
Your brain defaults to straight lines. Math reveals the curves that keep you from being wrong.
3.95
22k+
How Not to Be Wrong Summary
How Not to Be Wrong 98%
Your brain defaults to straight lines. Math reveals the curves that keep you from being wrong.
by Jordan Ellenberg 2014
3.95
22k+ ratings
The Norm Chronicles
by Michael Blastland • 2014
Why we fear plane crashes but not burgers: the stories and numbers behind your worst instincts.
3.59
564
The Norm Chronicles Summary
The Norm Chronicles 97%
Why we fear plane crashes but not burgers: the stories and numbers behind your worst instincts.
by Michael Blastland 2014
3.59
564 ratings
Calculated Risks
by Gerd Gigerenzer • 2002
How to tell when a percentage misleads you, and the reframing that reveals the truth.
3.96
671
Calculated Risks Summary
Calculated Risks 97%
How to tell when a percentage misleads you, and the reframing that reveals the truth.
by Gerd Gigerenzer 2002
3.96
671 ratings
The Flaw of Averages
by Sam L. Savage • 2009
A single average can sink your plan. The missing skill: thinking in distributions.
3.86
574
The Flaw of Averages Summary
The Flaw of Averages 97%
A single average can sink your plan. The missing skill: thinking in distributions.
by Sam L. Savage 2009
3.86
574 ratings
Innumeracy
by John Allen Paulos • 1988
A lottery ticket, a medical test, a sensational statistic: when smart people can't do the math.
3.78
5k+
Innumeracy Summary
Innumeracy 97%
A lottery ticket, a medical test, a sensational statistic: when smart people can't do the math.
by John Allen Paulos 1988
3.78
5k+ ratings
The Drunkard's Walk
by Leonard Mlodinow • 2008
Success isn't as earned as you think. Probability decides more outcomes than talent ever does.
3.95
25k+
The Drunkard's Walk Summary
The Drunkard's Walk 97%
Success isn't as earned as you think. Probability decides more outcomes than talent ever does.
by Leonard Mlodinow 2008
3.95
25k+ ratings
Numbers Rule Your World
by Fung • 2010
Statistics reveals why lines feel shorter, credit scores work, and safe airlines are an illusion.
3.56
1k+
Numbers Rule Your World Summary
Numbers Rule Your World 97%
Statistics reveals why lines feel shorter, credit scores work, and safe airlines are an illusion.
by Fung 2010
3.56
1k+ ratings
How to Expect the Unexpected
by Kit Yates • 2023
Master the science of prediction: why your gut fails, and when the smartest forecast is none.
3.69
188
How to Expect the Unexpected Summary
How to Expect the Unexpected 96%
Master the science of prediction: why your gut fails, and when the smartest forecast is none.
by Kit Yates 2023
3.69
188 ratings
How to Make the World Add Up
by Tim Harford • 2020
Bad statistics weaponize your feelings. Ten rules for seeing what the numbers actually say.
4.12
8k+
How to Make the World Add Up Summary
How to Make the World Add Up 96%
Bad statistics weaponize your feelings. Ten rules for seeing what the numbers actually say.
by Tim Harford 2020
4.12
8k+ ratings
Risk Savvy
by Gerd Gigerenzer • 2013
Most real life is uncertainty, not risk. Simple decision rules beat complex models there.
4.01
2k+
Risk Savvy Summary
Risk Savvy 96%
Most real life is uncertainty, not risk. Simple decision rules beat complex models there.
by Gerd Gigerenzer 2013
4.01
2k+ ratings
The Numbers Game
by Michael Blastland • 2008
Most numbers in the news mislead you; a few mental habits reveal the real story.
3.65
344
The Numbers Game Summary
The Numbers Game 96%
Most numbers in the news mislead you; a few mental habits reveal the real story.
by Michael Blastland 2008
3.65
344 ratings
The Failure of Risk Management
by Douglas W. Hubbard • 2009
Standard risk management makes decisions worse than guessing. The fix is simpler than you think.
3.95
413
The Failure of Risk Management Summary
The Failure of Risk Management 96%
Standard risk management makes decisions worse than guessing. The fix is simpler than you think.
by Douglas W. Hubbard 2009
3.95
413 ratings
The Improbability Principle
by David J. Hand • 2014
Why do extremely unlikely events happen daily? A few hidden laws make the extraordinary routine.
3.73
2k+
The Improbability Principle Summary
The Improbability Principle 96%
Why do extremely unlikely events happen daily? A few hidden laws make the extraordinary routine.
by David J. Hand 2014
3.73
2k+ ratings
Fooled by Randomness
by Nassim Nicholas Taleb • 2001
Ten thousand coin-flippers produce three hundred geniuses. The biographies write themselves.
4.08
72k+
Fooled by Randomness Summary
Fooled by Randomness 96%
Ten thousand coin-flippers produce three hundred geniuses. The biographies write themselves.
by Nassim Nicholas Taleb 2001
4.08
72k+ ratings
Against the Gods
by Peter L. Bernstein • 1996
The modern world began when humans stopped blaming the gods and started calculating the odds.
3.95
15k+
Against the Gods Summary
Against the Gods 95%
The modern world began when humans stopped blaming the gods and started calculating the odds.
by Peter L. Bernstein 1996
3.95
15k+ ratings
Maxims for Thinking Analytically
by Dan Levy • 2021
Extreme cases and simple division: Harvard legend's toolkit for sharper thinking amid uncertainty.
3.92
583
Maxims for Thinking Analytically Summary
Maxims for Thinking Analytically 95%
Extreme cases and simple division: Harvard legend's toolkit for sharper thinking amid uncertainty.
by Dan Levy 2021
3.92
583 ratings
Superforecasting
by Philip E. Tetlock • 2015
30% more accurate than CIA analysts: the trainable habits that predict the future.
4.08
22k+
Superforecasting Summary
Superforecasting 95%
30% more accurate than CIA analysts: the trainable habits that predict the future.
by Philip E. Tetlock 2015
4.08
22k+ ratings
A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper
by John Allen Paulos • 1997
The morning paper rests on hidden math. A mathematician reveals the numbers that change the story.
3.60
1k+
A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper Summary
A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper 95%
The morning paper rests on hidden math. A mathematician reveals the numbers that change the story.
by John Allen Paulos 1997
3.60
1k+ ratings
Ergodicity
by Luca Dellanna • 2020
Why a bet that works for a hundred people destroys the one who repeats it.
4.05
314
Ergodicity Summary
Ergodicity 95%
Why a bet that works for a hundred people destroys the one who repeats it.
by Luca Dellanna 2020
4.05
314 ratings
The Success Equation
by Michael J. Mauboussin • 2012
The ratio of skill to luck shapes every outcome. Most people misread it and pay dearly.
3.94
2k+
The Success Equation Summary
The Success Equation 95%
The ratio of skill to luck shapes every outcome. Most people misread it and pay dearly.
by Michael J. Mauboussin 2012
3.94
2k+ ratings
Rationality
by Steven Pinker • 2021
How a single mental toolkit built science, law, and democracy, and why it keeps short-circuiting.
3.84
7k+
Rationality Summary
Rationality 95%
How a single mental toolkit built science, law, and democracy, and why it keeps short-circuiting.
by Steven Pinker 2021
3.84
7k+ ratings
Think Twice
by Michael J. Mauboussin • 2009
Smart people fail at decisions because the mind's ancient shortcuts misfire in modern complexity.
3.93
1k+
Think Twice Summary
Think Twice 95%
Smart people fail at decisions because the mind's ancient shortcuts misfire in modern complexity.
by Michael J. Mauboussin 2009
3.93
1k+ ratings
Standard Deviations
by Gary Smith • 2014
Tortured data, seductive charts, and the cognitive bugs that turn noise into insight.
3.95
911
Standard Deviations Summary
Standard Deviations 95%
Tortured data, seductive charts, and the cognitive bugs that turn noise into insight.
by Gary Smith 2014
3.95
911 ratings
Perfectly Confident
by Don A. Moore • 2020
Confidence is a measurement problem: not how sure you feel, but how wrong you might be.
3.67
315
Perfectly Confident Summary
Perfectly Confident 95%
Confidence is a measurement problem: not how sure you feel, but how wrong you might be.
by Don A. Moore 2020
3.67
315 ratings
Rock Breaks Scissors
by William Poundstone • 2014
Why you can outguess anyone: the predictable mistakes we make when we try to be random.
3.50
772
Rock Breaks Scissors Summary
Rock Breaks Scissors 95%
Why you can outguess anyone: the predictable mistakes we make when we try to be random.
by William Poundstone 2014
3.50
772 ratings
The Great Mental Models Volume 3
by Rhiannon Beaubien • 2021
The world runs on feedback loops and bottlenecks you never see. The models that expose them.
4.25
832
The Great Mental Models Volume 3 Summary
The Great Mental Models Volume 3 95%
The world runs on feedback loops and bottlenecks you never see. The models that expose them.
by Rhiannon Beaubien 2021
4.25
832 ratings
May Contain Lies
by Alex Edmans • 2024
Why bad statistics and success stories feel convincing, and a systematic way to see through them.
4.11
1k+
May Contain Lies Summary
May Contain Lies 95%
Why bad statistics and success stories feel convincing, and a systematic way to see through them.
by Alex Edmans 2024
4.11
1k+ ratings
An Economist Walks into a Brothel
by Allison Schrager • 2019
An economist sizes up risk in brothels, poker rooms, and monster waves, then hands us the rules.
3.56
2k+
An Economist Walks into a Brothel Summary
An Economist Walks into a Brothel 95%
An economist sizes up risk in brothels, poker rooms, and monster waves, then hands us the rules.
by Allison Schrager 2019
3.56
2k+ ratings
Algorithms to Live By
by Brian Christian • 2016
When to settle, when to quit, when to trust chance: computer science already found the answers.
4.12
35k+
Algorithms to Live By Summary
Algorithms to Live By 95%
When to settle, when to quit, when to trust chance: computer science already found the answers.
by Brian Christian 2016
4.12
35k+ ratings
Everything Is Predictable
by Tom Chivers • 2024
The math behind your spam filter also reveals that your brain is hallucinating reality.
4.02
1k+
Everything Is Predictable Summary
Everything Is Predictable 95%
The math behind your spam filter also reveals that your brain is hallucinating reality.
by Tom Chivers 2024
4.02
1k+ ratings
The Tiger That Isn't
by Michael Blastland • 2007
A 40% increase sounds alarming. Should it? The simple questions that make numbers tell the truth.
3.91
670
The Tiger That Isn't Summary
The Tiger That Isn't 94%
A 40% increase sounds alarming. Should it? The simple questions that make numbers tell the truth.
by Michael Blastland 2007
3.91
670 ratings
The Math of Life and Death
by Kit Yates • 2019
Key mathematical ideas govern medicine, law, and media, and your intuition gets each one wrong.
3.90
2k+
The Math of Life and Death Summary
The Math of Life and Death 94%
Key mathematical ideas govern medicine, law, and media, and your intuition gets each one wrong.
by Kit Yates 2019
3.90
2k+ ratings
A Survival Guide to the Misinformation Age
by David J. Helfand • 2016
Mental tools from science that let you gut-check any claim yourself, no search engine required.
3.71
220
A Survival Guide to the Misinformation Age Summary
A Survival Guide to the Misinformation Age 94%
Mental tools from science that let you gut-check any claim yourself, no search engine required.
by David J. Helfand 2016
3.71
220 ratings
Irrationality
by Stuart Sutherland • 1992
Predictable mental errors everyone makes, from overconfidence to throwing good money after bad.
3.91
2k+
Irrationality Summary
Irrationality 94%
Predictable mental errors everyone makes, from overconfidence to throwing good money after bad.
by Stuart Sutherland 1992
3.91
2k+ ratings
How to Read Numbers
by Tom Chivers • 2021
Missing denominators, tiny samples, and the WWII plane error that bends every news stat.
4.32
478
How to Read Numbers Summary
How to Read Numbers 94%
Missing denominators, tiny samples, and the WWII plane error that bends every news stat.
by Tom Chivers 2021
4.32
478 ratings
A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market
by John Allen Paulos • 2003
The market's worst crashes aren't anomalies: they're built into the math most investors ignore.
3.46
823
A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market Summary
A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market 94%
The market's worst crashes aren't anomalies: they're built into the math most investors ignore.
by John Allen Paulos 2003
3.46
823 ratings
Good Thinking
by David Robert Grimes • 2021
Bad logic corrupts medicine, politics, and media. A physicist shows how to spot it.
4.29
312
Good Thinking Summary
Good Thinking 94%
Bad logic corrupts medicine, politics, and media. A physicist shows how to spot it.
by David Robert Grimes 2021
4.29
312 ratings
The Yellow Pad
by Robert E. Rubin • 2023
A yellow pad and honest odds: the method that steered Goldman Sachs and the White House.
3.70
268
The Yellow Pad Summary
The Yellow Pad 94%
A yellow pad and honest odds: the method that steered Goldman Sachs and the White House.
by Robert E. Rubin 2023
3.70
268 ratings
Third Millennium Thinking
by Saul Perlmutter • 2024
Probability over certainty, groups over lone genius: a Nobel physicist's toolkit for clear thinking.
3.66
339
Third Millennium Thinking Summary
Third Millennium Thinking 94%
Probability over certainty, groups over lone genius: a Nobel physicist's toolkit for clear thinking.
by Saul Perlmutter 2024
3.66
339 ratings
Becoming a Data Head
by Alex J. Gutman • 2021
The critical thinking toolkit for anyone who works with data but never plans to code.
4.18
480
Becoming a Data Head Summary
Becoming a Data Head 94%
The critical thinking toolkit for anyone who works with data but never plans to code.
by Alex J. Gutman 2021
4.18
480 ratings
The Hot Hand
by Ben Cohen • 2020
Stephen Curry didn't just get hot. He changed what science believes about streaks.
3.74
1k+
The Hot Hand Summary
The Hot Hand 94%
Stephen Curry didn't just get hot. He changed what science believes about streaks.
by Ben Cohen 2020
3.74
1k+ ratings
A Field Guide to Lies and Statistics
by Daniel J. Levitin • 2016
How to spot the tricks in any graph, survey, or news report before they fool you.
3.76
5k+
A Field Guide to Lies and Statistics Summary
A Field Guide to Lies and Statistics 94%
How to spot the tricks in any graph, survey, or news report before they fool you.
by Daniel J. Levitin 2016
3.76
5k+ ratings
Future Babble
by Dan Gardner • 2010
Confidence sells. Accuracy doesn't. Why the loudest experts are the worst forecasters.
3.79
737
Future Babble Summary
Future Babble 94%
Confidence sells. Accuracy doesn't. Why the loudest experts are the worst forecasters.
by Dan Gardner 2010
3.79
737 ratings
Investing
by Robert G. Hagstrom • 2000
Physics, biology, and psychology, woven together, give an investor an edge no financial model can.
4.13
1k+
Investing Summary
Investing 94%
Physics, biology, and psychology, woven together, give an investor an edge no financial model can.
by Robert G. Hagstrom 2000
4.13
1k+ ratings
Thinking Fast and Slow in 30 Minutes - The Expert Guide to Daniel Kahneman's Critically Acclaimed Book
by The 30 Minute Expert Series • 2013
You jump to conclusions because you're wired to. Those jumps follow a script you can learn.
3.87
31
Thinking Fast and Slow in 30 Minutes - The Expert Guide to Daniel Kahneman's Critically Acclaimed Book Summary
Thinking Fast and Slow in 30 Minutes - The Expert Guide to Daniel Kahneman's Critically Acclaimed Book 94%
You jump to conclusions because you're wired to. Those jumps follow a script you can learn.
by The 30 Minute Expert Series 2013
3.87
31 ratings
Decisive
by Chip Heath • 2013
Decisions fail in four predictable ways. A process fixes them, starting with one question.
3.96
18k+
Decisive Summary
Decisive 94%
Decisions fail in four predictable ways. A process fixes them, starting with one question.
by Chip Heath 2013
3.96
18k+ ratings
The Laws of Trading
by Agustin Lebron • 2019
The rules that keep traders alive are the same rules that govern every decision you make.
4.03
426
The Laws of Trading Summary
The Laws of Trading 94%
The rules that keep traders alive are the same rules that govern every decision you make.
by Agustin Lebron 2019
4.03
426 ratings
Evidence-Based Technical Analysis
by David Aronson • 2006
Most technical analysis is untestable folklore. The case for rebuilding it as a science.
3.67
153
Evidence-Based Technical Analysis Summary
Evidence-Based Technical Analysis 94%
Most technical analysis is untestable folklore. The case for rebuilding it as a science.
by David Aronson 2006
3.67
153 ratings
More Than You Know
by Michael J. Mauboussin • 2006
Markets follow the rules of ant colonies, poker games, and cognitive biases, not economic models.
4.07
2k+
More Than You Know Summary
More Than You Know 94%
Markets follow the rules of ant colonies, poker games, and cognitive biases, not economic models.
by Michael J. Mauboussin 2006
4.07
2k+ ratings
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