Eastward to Tartary

1. The Balkans: A Perennial Crossroads of Empires and Instability

The Carpathian Mountains, which now run through Romania, mark the end of Europe and the beginning of the Near East.

Geopolitical fault line. The Balkans, historically a meeting point of the Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman empires, remains a region defined by overlapping cultural legacies and political volatility. This area serves as a critical juncture between Eastern and Western civilizations, making it a perennial source of conflict and instability.

Echoes of Roman division. The division between the Western and Eastern Roman Empires in the 4th century A.D. continues to resonate in the Balkans. This split is evident in the religious affiliations (Catholic vs. Orthodox) and cultural orientations of different ethnic groups, contributing to ongoing tensions.

Historical patterns. The region's history is characterized by the rise and fall of empires, ethnic conflicts, and external interventions. Understanding these historical patterns is crucial for comprehending the current challenges and anticipating future developments in the Balkans.

2. Hungary's Central European Identity Contrasts with the Balkans' Ottoman Legacy

Our whores in Budapest are Russian and Ukrainian; our money—though it floats freely—is still worthless in the West; our oil and gas are from Russia; and we have mafia murders and corruption just like in the countries to the south and east.

Habsburg influence. Hungary, having been part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, maintains a distinct Central European identity, characterized by stronger institutions, economic development, and cultural ties to the West. This contrasts sharply with the Balkan countries that were historically under Ottoman rule.

Economic disparities. Despite its progress, Hungary still grapples with issues common to the former Communist bloc, including corruption, organized crime, and economic dependence on Russia. These challenges highlight the enduring legacy of the Soviet era and the difficulties of transitioning to a market economy.

EU anchor. Hungary's membership in the European Union provides a crucial anchor, driving economic and political reforms and fostering closer integration with the West. This contrasts with the more uncertain prospects of Balkan countries that are not yet part of the EU.

3. Romania's Struggle: Bridging the Gap Between East and West

This is how we were in the interwar period, in the 1930s. We are resourceful, adaptable, exaggerated, pseudocosmopolitan emigres in a new, global world. We are one-dimensional Latin- Oriental clones of the West.

Latin island in a Slavic sea. Romania, with its Latin-based language and Eastern Orthodox religion, occupies a unique position in the Balkans. Its history is marked by a constant struggle to reconcile its Western aspirations with its Eastern influences and geopolitical realities.

Legacy of Ceaușescu. The repressive regime of Nicolae Ceaușescu left a deep scar on Romanian society, hindering its economic and political development. The absence of a reform wing within the Communist party and the lack of a "truth and reconciliation" process have further complicated the country's transition.

NATO hope. Despite its challenges, Romania seeks to solidify its Western orientation through NATO membership. This aspiration reflects a desire for security, stability, and integration with the democratic values and economic opportunities of the West.

4. Bulgaria's Precarious Position: Caught Between Anarchy and Western Aspirations

The Bulgarian public is absolutely desperate for NATO membership. If Romania and Slovenia are accepted and we are not, it will be a second Yalta.

Fear of isolation. Bulgaria, like Romania, yearns for integration with the West but faces significant obstacles, including economic weakness, social problems, and the legacy of communism. The country's geographic location and historical ties to Russia further complicate its path.

Organized crime. The rise of organized crime, particularly the influence of "wrestlers" and shadowy "groupings," poses a serious threat to Bulgaria's fragile democracy. These criminal networks undermine the rule of law, corrupt political institutions, and hinder economic development.

NATO anchor. NATO membership is seen as a crucial lifeline for Bulgaria, providing a sense of security and stability in a volatile region. The country's leaders believe that integration with the West is essential for preventing a descent into anarchy and ensuring a brighter future.

5. Turkey's "Deep State": Balancing Secularism, Islam, and Geopolitical Ambitions

Supremacy and power are more important than ideals.

Secularism vs. Islam. Turkey navigates a complex interplay between its secular traditions, the rise of political Islam, and its strategic ambitions in the region. The military, as a self-proclaimed guardian of secularism, plays a significant role in shaping the country's political landscape.

Strategic alliances. Turkey's strategic alliance with Israel reflects its geopolitical calculations and its desire to project power in the Middle East. This alliance, however, is not without its challenges, as it faces opposition from Islamist groups and complicates Turkey's relations with other Arab states.

Geopolitical pivot. Turkey's geographic location and its control of vital waterways make it a crucial player in the region. The country's ability to balance its Western orientation with its regional ambitions will be critical for shaping the future of the Near East.

6. Greater Syria's Fragility: A Legacy of Artificial Borders and Sectarian Divisions

The Rumanians are living to-day where fifteen centuries ago their ancestors were living. The possession of the regions of the Lower Danube passed from one nation to another, but none endangered the Rumanian nation as a national entity.

Artificial borders. The borders of Greater Syria, drawn by European powers after World War I, have created a region plagued by artificial divisions and sectarian tensions. These divisions continue to fuel conflict and instability, hindering the development of cohesive national identities.

Sectarianism. The region's diverse religious and ethnic groups often find themselves at odds, competing for power and resources. This sectarianism is exploited by authoritarian regimes, who use it to maintain control and suppress dissent.

The absence of an Enlightenment. The lack of an Enlightenment tradition in many parts of the region has contributed to the persistence of authoritarianism and the weakness of civil society. Without a strong emphasis on individual rights and the rule of law, it is difficult to build stable and democratic institutions.

7. Lebanon's Resilience: A Corporate Satellite Amidst Regional Turmoil

We are one-dimensional Latin- Oriental clones of the West.

Post-war reconstruction. Lebanon, despite its history of civil war and foreign intervention, has demonstrated remarkable resilience in rebuilding its economy and infrastructure. However, this reconstruction has been largely driven by private interests, leading to concerns about inequality and corruption.

Syrian influence. Syria's continued influence in Lebanon remains a significant factor in the country's political landscape. While Syrian control provides a degree of stability, it also limits Lebanon's sovereignty and hinders the development of a truly independent political system.

Economic dependence. Lebanon's economy is heavily reliant on remittances from its diaspora and on its role as a regional service center. This dependence makes the country vulnerable to external shocks and limits its ability to chart its own course.

8. The Caucasus: A Crucible of Ethnic Tensions and Imperial Collisions

Huntington is dangerous, especially in connection with NATO enlargement.

Geopolitical crossroads. The Caucasus, situated between Russia, Turkey, and Iran, is a region of immense strategic importance. The competition for influence among these powers has fueled ethnic conflicts and political instability, making the Caucasus a potential flashpoint for regional conflict.

Ethnic fragmentation. The region's diverse ethnic groups, each with its own language, culture, and historical grievances, have struggled to coexist peacefully. The collapse of the Soviet Union unleashed a wave of ethnic violence and territorial disputes, leaving a legacy of displacement and animosity.

Russian influence. Russia continues to exert a strong influence in the Caucasus, supporting separatist movements and using its military presence to maintain its strategic interests. This influence complicates the efforts of countries like Georgia and Azerbaijan to assert their independence and integrate with the West.

9. Turkmenistan's Isolation: A Khanate Built on Sand and Oil

The better our relationship with Russia, the stronger will be our relationship with the West. Otherwise, Europe and the United States will take us for granted.

Authoritarian rule. Turkmenistan, under the rule of Saparmurad Niyazov (Turkmenbashi), is one of the most isolated and authoritarian states in the world. Niyazov's personality cult, combined with the country's vast natural gas reserves, has created a unique and often bizarre political system.

Economic dependence. Turkmenistan's economy is heavily reliant on its natural gas reserves, which are controlled by the state. This dependence has led to corruption, inequality, and a lack of economic diversification.

Geopolitical competition. The country's strategic location on the Caspian Sea makes it a target for geopolitical competition among Russia, Iran, and the West. These powers are vying for control of Turkmenistan's energy resources and for influence in the region.

10. Armenia's Enduring Identity: Memory, Faith, and the Weight of History

The Rumanians are living to-day where fifteen centuries ago their ancestors were living. The possession of the regions of the Lower Danube passed from one nation to another, but none endangered the Rumanian nation as a national entity.

Historical resilience. Armenia, despite its small size and its history of conquest and displacement, has maintained a strong sense of national identity. This resilience is rooted in its ancient language, its early adoption of Christianity, and its collective memory of the Armenian Genocide.

The weight of the past. The memory of the Armenian Genocide continues to shape the country's political and cultural landscape. The unresolved conflict with Turkey and the ongoing dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh further contribute to a sense of vulnerability and isolation.

Diaspora connection. The Armenian diaspora plays a crucial role in supporting the country's economy and promoting its interests on the international stage. This connection provides a vital lifeline for a country that faces significant challenges in a volatile region.

Last updated: March 30, 2025