Waste Land

1. Weimar's Fragility Echoes in Today's Global Interconnectedness

The entire world is one big Weimar now, connected enough for one part to mortally influence the other parts, yet not connected enough to be politically coherent.

Global Weimar. The Weimar Republic, a period of artistic vibrancy and political instability in post-WWI Germany, serves as a chilling analogy for our current global state. Like Weimar, the world is increasingly interconnected through technology and economics, yet lacks the political coherence to manage global crises effectively. This creates a fragile system where events in one region can quickly cascade across the globe, leading to a state of permanent crisis.

Interdependence without governance. The intimacy and distance between various parts of the globe create a situation where nations are highly dependent on each other, yet lack the mechanisms for true global governance. This is akin to Sartre's play "No Exit," where characters are locked in a room, tormenting each other, unable to escape their interconnected fate. The lack of a global "night watchman" to keep the peace exacerbates this fragility.

A cautionary tale. The Weimar analogy is not meant to predict a specific outcome, such as the rise of another Hitler. Instead, it serves as a warning about the dangers of interconnectedness without political coherence. By understanding the dynamics that led to Weimar's collapse, we can be more vigilant in addressing the challenges facing our own global system.

2. The Peril of Unchecked Reason and the Allure of Extremism

For a long time now it has been dangerous to stand in the way of revolution, and risk-free to assist it.

The limits of reason. The modern world often assumes that history is governed by reason, but Solzhenitsyn suggests that this is a dangerous conceit. History is often driven by irrational forces, passions, and contingencies. The Russian Revolution, like Hitler's rise, was a series of contingent events that could have been averted.

The romance of extremism. In times of chaos and disorder, extremism can become alluring. A minority can move history by exploiting the paralysis of the majority. The Russian Revolution demonstrates how a small group of focused individuals, like Lenin, can seize power in a chaotic environment.

The need for order. Solzhenitsyn emphasizes the need for order above all else. Without order, there is no freedom. The greater the disorder, the greater the repression to follow. The Russian Revolution serves as a cautionary tale about the dangers of unchecked revolution and the importance of maintaining a stable political system.

3. Order Precedes Freedom: Lessons from Collapsed Empires

In truth, order must come before freedom, because without order there is no freedom for anyone.

The value of tradition. Churchill argued that the sweeping away of long-established dynasties after World War I created a vacuum of legitimate authority, allowing thugs and bullies to run riot. While these dynasties were often reactionary and corrupt, they provided stability and legitimacy. Their removal led to chaos and ultimately, to the rise of totalitarian regimes.

The illusion of progress. The belief that replacing old empires with new democratic states would automatically lead to progress is a dangerous illusion. Democracy, when weak and unstable, is no guarantee against tyranny. The Weimar Republic, despite its artistic and cultural freedom, ultimately became a threat to freedom because it lacked basic political and institutional order.

The importance of institutions. Samuel Huntington argued that what made America great was less its ideals than its institutions, including the separation of powers. These institutions provide a framework for order and stability, which are essential for freedom to flourish. The collapse of empires in Central Europe, Russia, and the Middle East created a vacuum of authority that led to decades of war, mass murder, and geopolitical upheaval.

4. Technology Shrinks the World, Intensifying Crises

Every explosion of social forces, instead of being dissipated in a surrounding circuit of unknown space and barbaric chaos, will [henceforth] be sharply re-echoed from the far side of the globe.

The shrinking earth. Technology has contracted our world, erasing the distance across oceans and between continents. This has led to a situation where crises in one part of the world can easily and instantaneously migrate to the other side of the earth. Every place has become strategic, and the possibilities of conflict have become more numerous than ever.

The illusion of control. Despite the interconnectedness of our world, no world government has ever been on the horizon. Global institutions like the United Nations and the G7 have proven to be largely ineffective in alleviating the world's individual crises. The self-interest of states remains the dominant force in international relations.

The crisis matrix. Adam Tooze's "crisis pictures" demonstrate the overwhelming interconnectivity of the world's various crises. The Ukraine War, for example, has exacerbated existing tensions in energy and food markets, and has also intersected with the climate crisis and the risk of nuclear escalation. This interconnectedness makes it difficult to address individual crises in isolation.

5. The Enduring Relevance of Nuclear Weapons and Great-Power Competition

The psychological equation is, paradoxically, constantly shifting against the side which seems to be winning.

The nuclear shadow. Despite the development of precision-guided munitions, nuclear weapons remain a potent force in international relations. The threat of nuclear escalation continues to shape the behavior of states, particularly in conflicts where one side is losing. The existence of nuclear weapons also provides protection against foreign invasion.

The return of great-power competition. The focus on terrorism after 9/11 diverted attention from the resurgence of great-power competition. Russia and China have emerged as aggressive military, economic, and technological powers, challenging the dominance of the United States. This competition has the potential to destabilize the global order.

The limits of cool heads. The decades of cool decision-making during the Cold War coincided with the print-and-typewriter age, which encouraged objective and detailed explanations of issues. The digital-video world of roiling passions ignited by social media may make cool decision-making more difficult in the future.

6. Human Nature's Constant: A Skeptical View of Progress

Optimism and pessimism can be perilous attitudes that undergird policy. But of the two, optimism is apt to kill with greater certainty.

The myth of progress. Steven Pinker argues that violence has declined throughout history, but this view is overly optimistic. Modernity and education have not necessarily pacified man. The Industrial and post-Industrial ages have brought us everything from tanks to atomic bombs.

The power of individuals. History is driven not just by vast impersonal forces but also by the actions of individual men. Charismatic leaders can lead others to violence, rejecting the rationalism of the Enlightenment and seeking to be pure and authentic in regard to their instincts.

The primitive endures. Technologies come and go, but the primitive endures. War is a constant feature of human history, and it is likely to remain so in the future. Globalization and climate change may even increase the probabilities of war.

7. The Destabilizing Force of Population Growth and Resource Scarcity

My feeling has always been that the truth is prophetic, and if I write accurately about the present, seeing things as they are, aspects of the future will be suggested.

Malthusian pressures. Thomas Robert Malthus argued that population increases geometrically, while food supplies increase only arithmetically, leading to eventual shortages and starvation. While Malthus's predictions have not come to pass in their entirety, his work highlights the importance of ecosystems and the relationship between population and resources.

African realities. Paul Theroux's descriptions of Africa highlight the challenges of population growth, resource scarcity, and weak governance. Many Africans live in slums and squatter camps, and the hinterlands are often controlled by warlords.

The coming anarchy. The combination of population growth, resource scarcity, and weak governance can lead to anarchy and instability. This is particularly true in the developing world, where states are often unable to provide basic services and maintain order.

8. The Illusion of a Rules-Based International Order

An Earth-spanning security space governed by global rules…doesn’t exist.

Regional equilibria. The idea of a rules-based international order is largely a myth. Instead, the world is divided into regional equilibria, each with its own military dynamics driven by local historical competitions. The Ukraine War and the Gaza War demonstrate the limits of international law and the importance of power politics.

The decline of the United Nations. The United Nations has largely degenerated into a talk shop, more important to the global elite than to the world at large. The Security Council is increasingly irrelevant, and the organization is unable to effectively address major crises.

The limits of globalization. Globalization, while promoting trade and interconnectedness, has also created new opportunities for conflict and instability. The world is not necessarily becoming more peaceful or cooperative.

9. Globalization's Double-Edged Sword: Interconnection and Instability

The key element in all of this will be closeness. We will all—Eurasia, Africa, North and South America—be exposed to each other’s crises as never before.

Globalization 1.0 and 2.0. Globalization 1.0, which followed the end of the Cold War, was characterized by American dominance, technological innovation, and the spread of democracy. Globalization 2.0, which began with the 9/11 attacks, has been characterized by great-power competition, the rise of populism, and the disruption of supply chains.

The dark side of interconnection. A world united is also a world where there is no place to hide. The belief that a smaller world would necessarily be a better world is fundamentally flawed. Disease, conflict, and economic instability can spread rapidly across the globe.

The power of the present. Technology has made the present moment more vivid and overpowering, undermining our sense of history and making it more difficult to learn from the past. This can lead to poor decision-making and a lack of foresight.

10. The Shakespearean Decline of Great Powers: A Warning

National power itself, which is derivative of geographical position, natural resources, and economic strength, is ultimately dependent on the good judgment of leaders.

The importance of leadership. National power is ultimately dependent on the good judgment of leaders. The wars in Iraq and Ukraine show the dearth of wise and cautious leadership in the United States and Russia.

The Shakespearean element. Great powers are often undone by the inner demons of their leaders. Vladimir Putin's decision to invade Ukraine, for example, was a product of his own hubris and miscalculations.

The limits of power. Even the most powerful nations are subject to the forces of decline. The United States, Russia, and China are all experiencing various forms of decline, which will have profound consequences for the global order.

11. The Urban Crucible: Crowds, Chaos, and the Erosion of Tradition

The world-city…produces the “mob.”

The allure of the city. Cities are centers of innovation, culture, and economic opportunity. However, they are also places of chaos, anonymity, and social unrest. The urban environment can be alienating and disorienting, leading to a sense of rootlessness and a susceptibility to extremist ideologies.

The power of the crowd. Cities are breeding grounds for crowd psychology. Social media and digital-video technology amplify this phenomenon, creating virtual mobs that can exert enormous pressure on individuals and institutions.

The erosion of tradition. The emphasis on youth, style, and novelty in urban culture can lead to the erosion of tradition and a loss of connection to the past. This can undermine the stability of societies and make them more vulnerable to upheaval.

12. The Enduring Power of the Past: A Call for Historical Awareness

We do not like that kind of immortality, but what is to be done about it?

The importance of memory. The past provides a framework for understanding the present and anticipating the future. A society that loses its connection to the past is doomed to repeat its mistakes.

The limits of liberalism. While liberalism is essential for protecting individual freedom, it must be tempered by a respect for tradition and a recognition of the importance of community. Unchecked liberalism can lead to social fragmentation and a loss of shared values.

The need for vigilance. The challenges facing our world are complex and multifaceted. There are no easy solutions. The best we can do is to remain vigilant, to learn from the past, and to strive for a more just and sustainable future.

Last updated: March 29, 2025